Republican primary battle shapes up for District 27

It looks like Raquel Regalado has decided what she wants to do next: Congress.

After briefly entertaining a state Senate run to replace Frank Artiles — because, really, who hasn’t? — the former Miami-Dade School Board member and recent county mayoral candidate has set her sights on District 27, the seat U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is giving up next year.

No, she hasn’t announced yet. But she’s talked to Ileana and others about it. And she’s made up her mind. No exploratory committee for her. She’s flying to D.C. this week to see if party leaders will back her bid — or at least stand out of the way during what could be an interesting primary, since Miami-Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro has already said he was interested in the seat. And, no, it’s not interesting just because her brother is running against his wife in another race, proving what a family affair 305 politics is (more on that later). It’s interesting also because both Bruno and Raquel have been elected and represented the area for years. Him at the county and the Florida House. Her at the School Board. They’re both proven fundraisers. They’re both bien educados and well-versed in the federal issues — transportation, housing, education. And they’re both moderate Republicans in a bellweather district that has consistenly elected the national poster child of GOP moderation.

Read related story: Two new ‘open’ seats spur political piñata question: 40 or 27?

Sure, she’s just come off a bruising election and a misogynistic campaign that trashed her with false allegations of homestead exemption fraud and belittled her knowledge and experience. But she still had somewhere around 100,000 votes in that district. And some of those people have voted for her multiple times and for her dad, Miami Mayor Tomas Regalado. In fact, Raquel didn’t even really campaign there because it was her home base. Ladra knows. I was working on her team. (For the record: I worked to elect Raquel to Miami-Dade mayor because the incumbent was the exact opposite of public servant, using the office to benefit himself and those on his friends and family plan. I do not plan to work for her congressional bid but I am still a fan and wish her the best of luck).

In fact, Ladra thinks Regalado has the GOP leg up. Her name recognition and positives in that district are probably the highest she’s got and, likely, higher than Barreiro’s. That’s even before voters are reminded of Bruno’s vote for the Marlin’s stadium deal. As commission chairman at the time, he championed and channeled the whole thing. It’s the main reason he was almost recalled at the same time as Mayor Carlos Alvarez and Commissioner Natacha Seijas Millan, but the petition gatherers fell a few signatures short.

Barreiro also voted against Commissioner Esteban Bovo‘s ordinance that would prohibit the county from contracting with any company that did business in Cuba. This might not be a big deal anywhere else. But the Cuba issue — and the Cuba PAC — plays in this congressional race.

Bruno might also be hampered a bit by his wife’s run for city of Miami commission this year. A quick look through Zoraida Barreiro’s contributions makes it obvious that he’s made some asks of county vendors or contractors. A second ask may not go as well. And what if his wife loses? And what if she wins? Wasn’t the whole point of her running because it was her turn now?

Read related story: Kristen Rosen Gonzalez to challenge Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

Regalado, who jus it spent $800,000 trying to become the county mayor, may be in a similar situation since her brother, Radio Marti Exec Tommy Regalado, is running for commissioner against Mrs. Barreiro. But Regalado has political sugardaddy Norman Braman and a well-oiled machine that will benefit from the full time addition of one of its longtime members in November, when Papi is no longer alcalde and can give his daughter’s campaign 100%.

Imagine both daughter and dad — and possibly a Commissioner Tommy Regalado — on a media rampage to get her elected. Raquel is a match for Ileana in that way. Did everybody see how the congresswoman’s retirement became a weeklong story? She had press conferences for three days. She’s very active on twitter and accessible to the constituency. Really, Raquel is better at that kind of thing than Bruno is.

There’s also the fact that she’s a woman. We already have a limited number of women in Congress. It would be a shame if the first Hispanic woman elected to this great democratic body were replaced by a man. Sorry, Bruno, it just does. Best case scenario is Regalado against Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez on the Dems side (because Ladra was told that Daniella Levine Cava was caught off guard and is not going to make the jump).

It’s not if or when these days in the 305 political world, it’s where.

Folks are lining up like ducks to become the next Florida Senator in District 40, after former Sen. Frank Artiles was forced to resign over racist remarks, or maybe the next Congress member from District 27, after longtime veteran U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen announced Saturday she would not seek re-election. Some are having to choose between the two.

It’s almost like someone broke open a political piñata and the big kids are just diving in, leaving no room for the new kids to grab any candy.

The latest to officially dive into the 40 contest, even though the governor has not yet set an election date, is former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla, who switched gears from considering a city of Miami commission run and filed paperwork Wednesday so he can start fundraising for a seat he is all to familiar with. The Dean DLP was in the Senate from 2000 to 2010, serving as Majority Leader and President Pro Tempore, until he was succeeded by his big brother Miguel DLP. This would be his first foray back into politics (for himself; he’s run other campaigns) since losing a bid to go back to the State House (he served as a rep from 1994 to 2000) in 2012.

This should put to rest all the talk about State Rep. Jeanette Núñez, who was being pushed hard by the Florida GOP, which is wise to be seeking a female to replace Artiles because some of his comments were misogynist, too, and you can bet that might become part of the campaign narrative if the Democrats choose a woman (read: wisely). Núñez was already loathe to have to move her family from Doral, from where she can comfortably run for Anitere Flores‘ seat when Flores terms out, which is her plan. She certainly isn’t going to run against The Dean, who was once her boss and mentor.

Read related story: Frank Artiles resigns and an old rival, Juan Zapata, could run

It should be an intresting primary nonetheless. Unless DLP is suddenly back in the GOP’s good graces, they may still push State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz into it. Pepi “The Selfie King” Diaz is said to be in the running for either U.S. Attorney General or Florida AG once Pam Bondi goes to Washington, but Ladra has been told that it’s been a difficult sell, primarily because he hasn’t really seen the inside of a courtroom, has he? Sscares away more of the multitudes on the sidelines thinking about this same senate seat, including former Miami-Dade Commissioner Juan Zapata — who has suddenly started a new, fresh round of Facebook ads — and former Miami-Dade School Board Member Raquel Regalado, who has been spending loads of time in Tallahassee since her loss to Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez and done many of her radio shows on state rather than county issues. While she lost countywide Regalado — who Ladra helped against Gimenez but is not working with in either of the other races — got tens of thousands of votes in both districts.

Interestingly enough, both Zap and Regalado are also interested in the congressional seat, for which former Cutler Bay Mayor Ed MacDougall — who lost a Congressional primary against Carlos Curbelo in 2014 — has formed an exploratory committee and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera has said he’s thinking about it

And why wouldn’t they be?

These opportunities for open seats do not come often. In the case of District 27, where Ros-Lehtinen’s announcement came out of the blue, we already had a bunch of Democrats interested in turning that seat. These include Scott Fuhrman, the DUI driver who lost to Ros-Lehtinen in November, and Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen-Gonzalez, the primary frontrunner who has a head start on everybody else — actually challenging Ileana and not waiting until she retired — as well as some early success in the city despite coming in as the mayor’s nemesis. That is, unless Miami-Dade Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava jumps in. She has said that she is considering it. That could be a game changer. But are both of them too Democrat to carry the general? Dems seem to think this seat is theirs for the taking.

Read related story: Kristen Rosen Gonzalez to challenge Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

What an episode of Miami Hollywood Squares

Nobody has officially jumped in from the GOP side but Regalado makes sense. Ros-Lehtinen has always been a moderate and Regalado is too. Plus, she’s up on issues like education, immigration, healthcare and housing so she can hit the ground running. I like Mac, but he’s got too problems: He’s a Trump-loving hardline conservative and a gringo. I love Zap, but he should stick to 40, which is where he lives. Regalado lives in 27. She represented much of it on the school board. This is her home base. It’s Dean DLP’s home base, too, but the numbers may not look as good for a more conservative Republican.

Still, these days, it looks like everybody is Annette Taddeo, the carpetbagging perennial candidate who has run for county commission, liutenant governor and Congress. Or David Rivera, for that matter.

Speaking of which, the former Congressman, who has tried to win his seat back and is now running for state rep in 105 (to replace termed-out Rep. Carlos Trujillo), has not expressed an interest in the senate race, which is more natural for him than the congressional seat. Just because he was spotted in Frank’s old office in the Capitol Building in Tallahassee doesn’t mean anything. He could have just been visiting his longtime friend Alina Garcia, Artiles’ former Chief of Staff who once worked for Rivera.

Taddeo, on the other hand, has of course expressed interest in both seats. As well as, let’s just put dibs on it now, any seat that may open up in the future.