We will have to wait until Friday to find out if political operative and campaign consultant Christian Ulvert became an elected this week after he got into a tie for the fourth and last council member slot in Miami Shores.
Voters in Tuesday’s election had seven candidates on the ballot. The top four vote getters won seats.
Crystal Wagar, former Chief of Staff to Miami-Dade Commissioner Jimmy Morales, got the most number, with 1,440 votes, or 21%. As such, she will be the mayor for the first half of her four-year term.
Former Mayor Alice Burch came in second with 1,262 votes, or 19%, so she will be the next vice mayor. Councilman Jonathan Meltz was re-elected with 1,025 or 15% of the votes.
But the fourth and final seat ended in a tie between Ulvert and former Councilman Stephen Loffredo, each having gotten 893 votes, or just over 13%.
That may be sorted out on Friday when a canvassing board goes through the provisional votes, which are ballots cast by voters whose eligibility could not be verified at the polling location.
Read related: Political operative Christian Ulvert runs for council in Miami Shores
Ulvert’s poor showing may be due to a negative campaign that has been waged against him by none other than David “Disgustin” Custin, who used his political action committee, Citizens for Ethical and Effective Leadership, to pay for several mailers calling Ulvert a political hack and questioning his motives.
In one, Custin reminds voters that the political advisor to several high profile Democrats — including Sen. Annette Taddeo, Miami-Dade Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava and former Miami Beach Mayor and gubernatorial candidate Phil Levine — represented dog racing and worked for the slots gambling initiative. Then he suggests that Ulvert might want to bring a strong mayor form of government to Miami Shores, since he was so involved in the strong mayor initiative that failed in Miami.

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In another close race mirroring the 2017 contest, Coral Gables Mayor Raul Valdes-Fauli was barely able to hold on to his seat against former Commissioner Jeannett Slesnick.
Now, we can’t say Valdes-Fauli won by a scant 187 votes anymore. Now, it’s a flimsy 123!
Not really a mandate, is it? The margin is even narrower than it was two years ago, when Valdes-Fauli won his first term. It could narrow further as absentee ballots that come in Tuesday and provisional ballots are counted. Who knows? It may get close enough to trigger an automatic recount. Or go the other way.
In the sole commission race — Commissioner Mike Mena was re-elected without opposition — there will be a runoff, as expected, after Ralph Cabrera got almost 40% of the vote and the next closest candidate got 31%. The second round is on April 24.
But this was the second round for Slesnick and Valdes-Fauli, and the incumbent showed a lead early on.  When it was just absentee ballots, the first to be counted, Valdes-Fauli was leading 53% to 47% with a 236-vote advantage.
But, while not enough, Slesnick’s people turned out stronger on Election Day and the margin narrowed to 50.7% to 49.3% by the time the precincts had reported just after 8 p.m.
Ouch for Slesnick who lost by only a few dozen votes — again! It must be heartbreaking to work so hard and come so close.
Read related: Ralph Cabrera set to enter runoff with campaign cash advantage
A total of 8,572 of the city’s 33,194 registered voters cast ballots, almost a 26% turnout.
Cabrera had the win from the get-go, with a substantial lead of nearly 40% when absentee ballots were counted. The second highest AB getter was Jorge Fors, Jr., who got 31%. Former interim city manager Carmen Olazabal got 26% and Jackson “Rip” Holmes got just over 3%.
That means voters will have to go out again in two weeks to choose between Cabrera and Fors.

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Even before 7 a.m. Tuesday, 4,287 voters had cast absentee ballots in the Coral Gables election. That’s almost 55% of the 7,835 ABs that were sent out.
That’s the highest number of mail-in ballots returned in the City Beautiful in at least 10 years, maybe all of history. And more may arrive Tuesday.
But while the city generally has a higher turnout on Election Day, a 90 percent chance of rain with thunderstorms predicted for Tuesday threatens to keep voters away from the polls this year, making those mail-in votes even more important than ever.
Read related: Mayoral race in Coral Gables is a do-over on over-development
Especially in the mayor’s race, which is a rematch of a contest lost by 187 votes two years ago and may be close again.
Incumbent Raul Valdes-Fauli, who only treats people well the two months he campaigns, beat former Commissioner Jeannett Slesnick in both mail-in and Election Day votes, but the day-of margin was smaller (15).
“We are really working on the absentees this time as that is where I fell short last time,” Slesnick said Monday evening. She said the rain is likely to fall between noon and 4 p.m., which are not peak voting times.
Still, both mayoral campaigns are offering voters rides to the polls. Slesnick put her personal cellphone number (305-975-8158) on all her emails and materials and says people can call her if they need help getting to vote.
Valdes-Fauli’s latest campaign finance report shows a $5,500 expense for “Election Day operations” to Bridge 305, which could be for transportation.
Read related: Development interests fund campaign for Raul Valdes-Fauli
A total of 8,416 people voted in the 2017 election, the highest turnout in the past decade. In 2015, it was 7,084 (3,770 absentee), in 2013 it was 7,047 (2,807 and in 2011, it was 7,922.
Back in 2001, when Valdes-Fauli was voted out of office the first time, 10,271 people voted. But Ladra bets it was a sunny day.
Four candidates are competing for the commission seat vacated by Commissioner Frank Quesada, who is not seeking a second term. They are former Commissioner Ralph Cabrera, attorney and homestead exemption cheat Jorge Fors, interim city manager and compulsive liar Carmen Olazabal and Jackson “Rip” Holmes.
“I’m absolutely concerned with tomorrow’s weather,” Cabrera said late Monday night. “Don’t know the impact it will have on turnout. However, traditionally, it has reduced turnout by as much as half.”
Read related: Ralph Cabrera set to enter runoff with campaign cash advantage
Cabrera has reason to be concerned. He has traditionally done much better on Election Day than he has with mail-in ballots.
But, rain or shine, none of the four commission candidates are likely to take 50% plus one so there will likely be a runoff on April 23 between the two  highest vote-getters (read: Cabrera and someone else).
Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

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It’s no secret that former Pinecrest Mayor Cindy Lerner has been waiting for Miami-Dade Commissioner Xavier Suarez to be termed out or make his move so she can run for the district seat.
On Monday, she made those intentions clear when she filed documents Monday at the Miami-Dade Elections Department indicating she had opened a campaign account.
Read related: Cindy Lerner confronts Rubio, Bush on climate change
In a statement released Monday afternoon, Lerner — who has kept active on issues, particularly sea level rise and infrastructure — made reference to broken promises and traffic.
“I am pleased to announce that I am a candidate to represent the people of Miami-Dade County Commission District 7. I grew up in Miami-Dade County and raised my 3 children in District 7. During that time, I have fought to make our community a better and stronger place for people to live, work, raise their families and enjoy a quality of life. The time has now come to act and address the serious threats to our community that require bold action by the Miami- Dade County Commission.
For too long, leaders have danced around pressing issues from traffic gridlock causing frustrated residents and workers to spend too much time traveling to and from their homes, work places, schools and other activities. For too long they have paid lip service to the real threat from sea level rise and flooding. For too long they have ordered studies to deal with the real danger to our drinking water and public safety from failing infrastructure.
I am running to represent the people in Commission District 7 because we can no longer afford hollow promises that simply waste taxpayer dollars and provide little results. We need new leadership for the district. In my vision as a county commissioner, the Commission and County Government work together and collaborate with the leaders of the many municipalities to implement solutions to the threats we face in District 7 and in Miami-Dade County. I am running because the clock is ticking and it is Time for Action.”
This sets up a contest between Lerner, a popular Democrat who was also a state representative from 2000 to 2008, and former Miami-Dade School Board Member Raquel Regalado, a popular and moderate Republican who forced Mayor Carlos Gimenez into a runoff in 2016.
Read related: Political musical chairs: Recycled electeds vie for 2020 county seats
Regalado, who briefly ran for Florida Senate and then U.S. Congress last year before abandoning both, switched to the county commission bid and started fundraising in February. She has already raised $19,000 for her county commission bid, according to her last campaign reports. That includes notable small bundles like $2,000 from Norman Braman, $2,000 from lobbyist Jorge Luis Lopez and $3,000 from lobbyist Eric Zichella.
Of course, more candidates are expected in this open seat.
Scratch Coral Gables Commissioner Vince Lago off he list. He is said to be looking at a mayoral run in the City Beautiful in 2021. But former Miami Commissioner Marc Sarnoff is still in play.
District 7 runs from the southern tip of Brickell Avenue all the way to Miami-Dade College’s Kendall Campus. It includes all of Key Biscayne, Coconut Grove, South Miami, Downtown Dadeland and Pinecrest as well as  large parts of Coral Gables and East Kendall near Baptist Hospital.
 

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The Miami-Dade State Attorney’s Office is looking into three mystery mailers attacking former Coral Gables Commissioner Ralph Cabrera in Coral Gables and attributed to a political action committee that has said it isn’t involved.
Attorney and activist Jack Thompson sent the SAO an email with a link to an earlier Political Cortadito post about the first mailer, which said it was paid for and sent by Leadership for Florida’s Future. But a woman at the Jensen Beach PAC said it wasn’t them.
“Please review this news story and then open a criminal investigation,” wrote Thompson in a March 26 email with the subject “illegal campaign activity.”
Read related: PAC says it did not send hit piece on Ralph Cabrera — so who did?
Since then, two more mailers have come out with the same dark colors and bold letters warning voters about Cabrera’s ethics and ties to developers. Ladra sent the images to the SAO’s office on Friday and was told it would be forwarded to the right unit.
In the meantime, it’s hard to tell if it’s had any impact. Coral Gables voters don’t respond well to hit pieces and they’ve known Cabrera for decades. He was their commissioner for 12 years and has run for office almost since then. Those who support him are likely not swayed. And those who don’t might not fall for these mailers, which are awfully vague and short on attribution. In other words, they stink of smear.
The piece about the ethics quotes the actual complaint from former Mayor Jim Cason, an empty suit rubber stamper who Cabrera challenged twice, and not the findings from the close-out memo, which found he did nothing wrong. Shoot! You can say anything in a complaint. In fact, many campaigns now file complaints on purpose so they can quote them without having any basis.
A third piece landed last week insinuating that because Cabrera has taken developer money, he is in their pocket. Cabrera’s campaign has accepted some development money, notably $7,000 from Armando Codina, who is developing a 16-story luxury residential building on Salzedo, and Agave LLC, which is developing The Plaza, what used to be Old Spanish Village.
But what is Ralph supposed to do? Decline the money he needs to fight off the negative attacks that we knew were coming anyway?  He said these people came unsolicited to him. And it’s only a tiny fraction of Cabrera’s campaign funds that are tied to development.
He also has lots of residents, doctors, lawyers, plumbers. He has $1,000 from Miami-Dade Commissioner Xavier Suarez, $500 from former Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas and $300 from Gonzalo Sanabria, a Gables rabblerouser who was originally supporting another candidate.
Read related: Ralph Cabrera set to enter runoff with campaign cash advantage
Cabrera is not gonna be beholden to any of them anyway. Anybody who knows him knows he doesn’t owe favors. Even with his friends. Which is one of the things voters should like about him.
“Let’s stop Cabrera and his say one thing, do another agenda,” one piece says. But if there’s one thing that people know about Ralph is that he says what he means and means what he says, which is why some people don’t like him. There is no hidden agenda with Cabrera. His agenda is right there on his sleeve. He will talk ad nauseam about it and it usually has to do with improving city services or public safety. His sometimes self-depricating, brutal honesty is off putting because he won’t go along to get along. That’s another reason some people don’t like him.
In fact, the only thing these mailers prove is that someone is really worried about Cabrera. Perhaps he can win outright on Tuesday and avoid a runoff.
And even though they won’t have the answer before the election, the State Attorney should still find out is who is paying for these mystery mailers. If it’s not Leadership for Florida’s Future, it could be anybody.
It could be illegal foreign money, like in the Miami Beach case that derailed State Rep. Michael Grieco‘s mayoral race. If the Kathy Fernandez-Rundle investigates that and not this, then it looks like it was a personal grudge against a former prosecutor.
It could be the Eighth Street hotels that rent by the hour, including one in the Little Gables annexation area.
It could be the Russians.
Except the only ones who benefit from hurting Cabrera are the other candidates in the commission race. So, that means one of them is attacking Ralph with lies and innuendo using soft money from who knows where.
Read related: Ralph Cabrera’s commission race advantage: Others are unelectable
Only candidate Jorge L. Fors has ties to the PAC through his campaign manager, Steve Marin (right), who was paid at least $63,000 last year by Leadership for what he said was work on some state races. Political observers have also noted that the size of the mailers, the fonts used and the design seem similar to Marin’s. Campaign consultants often have signature looks to their materials.
But Marin told Ladra they were not his and that he would not hide behind a PAC to send mailers from his camp.
And his history with the Jensen Beach PAC could be the very reason that former interim city manager and current candidate Carmen Olazabal and her people may have chosen Leadership for Florida’s Future, to throw the scent off themselves. She has proven to be sneaky before.
Jackson “Rip” Holmes doesn’t have the money, political experience, guidance or, frankly, attention span to pull this off.
So it has to be either Olazabal or Fors, or someone in their circles, which is another reason to vote for Ralph Cabrera, who hasn’t used any of his campaign money — development or otherwise — to pay for a single negative hit piece.

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The Florida Bar has opened an investigation into the homestead exemption fraud by Coral Gables candidate Jorge Fors, an attorney and former president of the Coral Gables Bar Association.
After receiving a complaint from activist resident Jack Thompson, Bar Counsel Richard Coombs responded that they would look into the illegal homestead exemptions Fors claimed for years on a Little Havana condo he did not live in.
“Thank you for bringing this matter to our attention,” Coombs wrote Thompson on April 3. “The Florida Bar has opened up a case as the complainant and will investigate this matter.”
Thompson’s complaint is closed, Coombs said, because The Florida Bar filed its very own complaint. That seems interesting.
Read related: Coral Gables candidate Jorge Fors had illegal homestead exemption
Fors owns a 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo at 1039 SW 5th Street in Miami and said he lived there for a few months before he left to college in Gainesville. He never lived there again and, in fact, voted in the city of Coral Gables — his voter’s registration was at his parents’ house — in 2013, 2015 and 2017. Those same years, however, he still had the homestead exemption on 5th Street.
His illegal homestead exemptions were first discovered by Ladra and exposed earlier this year.
But in January, after he filed to run for office and after Ladra started sniffing around — las malas lenguas say he was tipped off — Fors paid the county a total of $13,178.37 all at once for back taxes he got out of on the condo as well as interest and penalties for the years 2010 through 2017. Why not 2018?
But all of a sudden, it seems, he had an urgent need to pay that? Or is it because he is running for office and he knew it would come up that he tried to cheat taxpayers out of his fair share?
In fact, Fors decided not to tell me about the one-time lump sum payment he made back to the taxpayers he cheated when he and Ladra spoke on the phone about it a month later. Rather than say he had taken care of it, he stuck to the defense that he was allowed to have the homestead exemption even if he didn’t live there because he didn’t have one someplace else.
If he believed that, why did he pay the penalty? And if he paid the penalty, why didn’t he just say so? Was it because that would be admitting to being a scoundrel who tried to get away with stealing thousands of dollars from taxpayers?
Would he still be doing it if he hadn’t run for office?
Questions that hopefully the Bar investigation will ask Fors. But we won’t know the outcome before Tuesday’s election.

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