Voters in Miami Beach could change the character of the city’s most famous and celebrated street with a ban on outdoor alcohol sales after 2 a.m. if a referendum on the Nov. 7 ballot is passed.

But they have no information from the city about the impact of such a measure because a promised economic study has not materialized. A “preliminary report” is expected at Wednesday’s commission meeting with a final study due a week before the election is over — and after thousands of people have voted via absentee ballots and early voting.

Opponents, however, already have a counter study that says the ban would hurt the city financially, cost jobs and lower property values.

Championed to the point of obsession by Mayor Philip Levine — and one has to wonder why he is so hell bent on making this happen so fast (did someone shoot him down at The Clevelader once?) — the measure, which would change the last call only at outdoor bars from 5 a.m. to 2 a.m., is promoted as a tool for public safety in response to a shooting over a parking space on Memorial Day weekend.

But when commissioners voted unanimously in June to put this question on the ballot, they were basically promised an economic study on the impact by Sept. 1. And guess what? That didn’t happen.

There is no data to show the ban — which seems directly targeted at only three businesses in a 15-block strip — will curb violence. The city’s own statistics show that 911 calls for police and fire rescue in the Ocean Drive area peak between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Those calls drop by about a third between 2 and 5 a.m.

The Memorial Day weekend shooting that set this vote in motion happened at 10:35 p.m., by the way. Also, there have since been shootings on Lincoln Road, Collins Avenue and Española Way, where the mayor owns property.

So a 2 to 5 a.m. ban on just Ocean Drive seems selective and may have zero or at most a very minimal effect crime.

What’s worse is that, if passed, the measure could actually hurt the city financially, according to a study commissioned by the Florida Retail and Lodging Association, which represents businesses along Ocean Drive.

The 27-page report from Fishkind and Associates said that the three-hour change won’t help reduce crime but will have a “dramatic, negative impact on the economy of Miami Beach and significant consequences for the city’s budget.”  It also puts the economy of Ocean Drive, where other businesses thrive off the popularity of the people-watching outdoor bars, “at risk to serious economic harm” not just to the three bars that would be affected, but to nearby restaurants and hotels that were surveyed and said the nightlife and hours on Ocean Drive are critical to the choice their guests make to stay here.

The city presented some faulty figures of their own — apparently pulled from thin air and presented in haste before any real, professional study could be done — that only look at Ocean Drive alcohol sales between 2 and 5 a.m. and not what the ban would do to other businesses or the perimeter zones.

“This ordinance will severely alter a formula that has proven successful and allowed hotels and restaurants to flourish,” said Carol Dover, president and CEO of the FRLA. “If this destructive measure passes, jobs will be lost and taxpayers in the City of Miami Beach will be responsible for footing the bill for the millions of dollars in lost tax revenue.”

The numbers? More than $340 million a year in lost sales (bars + restaurants + hotels). Close to a $2 billion drop in property values. An estimated $20 million hit to the annual sales tax revenue. And 5,500 jobs lost.

City officials don’t have any real numbers to counter because it’s economic study just got started two weeks ago. Even though Levine told commissioners in June that he would get the study done by Sept. 1 so voters could be educated, the contract with Florida International University’s Office of Research and Economic Development wasn’t signed until almost a month after that on Sept. 29. And it gives the school 60 days to complete it.

It won’t take that long, said Amy Mehu, the city’s redevelopment specialist. “They are being expedient in data collection,” Mehu told Ladra Tuesday, adding that the city had trouble finding a firm to do the study. “Many firms stated conflicts of interests because they had done work for the hotel industry or businesses on Ocean Drive.”

Commissioners will get a preliminary report at Wednesday’s meeting and a final report will be available Oct. 31, Mehu said.

That means there’s a whole week for voters to get information before Election Day.

Well, again, except for the thousands of voters who will have already cast their ballots by mail — absentee ballots were mailed out Monday — and in early voting, which begins next week.

“Talk about putting the cart before the horse,” said Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez.

She, too, is concerned with a rise in violent crime and the environment on Ocean Drive on a typical Friday night. But she says that the way to deal with that is with more police presence and community policing.

“This is not logical. If this was about logic, we would have commissioned a study before the vote,” Rosen Gonzalez said, adding that she will be voting no and telling her friends and supporters to do the same.

Did you have a nice, loooong weekend? Well, just because it’s a shorter week doesn’t meant there’s not a lot going on.

The cities of Miami and Coral Gables have some controversial items this week sure to pack their respective city halls while South Miami has a dejavu on affordable housing and the county has another one of those “we love soccer” meetings about a proposed stadium in Overtown. We also have yet another march downtown. This one is family friendly!

No, it’s not a typo. I got no notice from the Tuesday Morning Breakfast Club meeting in Miami Beach. Maye they are skipping this week?

And since when did Saturday become a day to do political stuff? No, really. Please stop that.

Got an event for the calendar on a normal day of the week? Get me the 411 on your 305 government and club meetings, campaign fundraisers and political powwows and get in the calendar. It’s easy. Send an email to edevalle@gmail.com or invite me on Facebook or hit me up on twitter like some of these people did.

TUESDAY — May 30

9 a.m. — There is going to be a lot of upset residents at Coral Gables City Hall Tuesday. Not only is there going to be a 2 p.m. time-certain discussion item on the commission meeting agenda, thanks to Commissioner Vince Lago, about the police major who spied on resident Maria Cruz during a commission meeting in September — will Maj. Theresa Molina be fired or will she pass go and collect $100,000 and a really fat pension for the rest of her life — there may also be talk about the police shortages and a 5 p.m. time-certain second vote on the controversial 33 Alhambra development that seems to have made some cuts in units and parking, but which nearby residents still don’t want. If you want a seat, get there early. Or you’ll be watching on the TVs outside the commission chambers on the second floor of City Hall, 405 Biltmore Way.

10 a.m. — After deferring it last week, Miaim City Commissioners will consider taking Watson Island back from a developer that promised 16 years ago to turn it into a hotel/retail destination with parking and a marina. Commissioner Ken Russell believes that the developer has missed a deadline earlier this month to start construction. Some city staffers say they did enough to meet that standard. It will certainly make for an interesting discussion as there are a group of Venetian Island residents opposed to the development. They and State Rep. David Richardson wants the process to start over. And maybe it should, considering it was made 16 years ago! The special meeting begins at 10 a.m. at City Hall, 3500 Pan American Drive.

6 p.m. — The city of South Miami may finally be moving along on the long-promised Madison Square affordable housing project along Southwest 59th Place at 64th Street, next to the St. John African Methodist Episcopal Church. The South Miami Community Redevelopment Agency will consider transmitting the proposal with a variance for four stories rather than the maximum two and another variance for reduced parking. This has been talked about for years but has been held up by one thing or another. In 2015, the original contractor cancelled its contract with the city over delays in getting the necessary variances. Will we see a dejavu on Tuesday? The project now has been divided into two, the East and the West parts. The CRA will also consider two unity of titles for the 15 properties involved. The meeting begins at 6 p.m. in commission chambers at City Hall, 6130 Sunset Drive.

WEDNESDAY — May 31

2 p.m. — An update on the SMART mass transit plan for Miami-Dade is coming up at Wednesday’s Transportation Planning Organization’s Transportation and Mobility Committee meeting. County Commissioner Jose “Pepe” Diaz will ask the committee to amend the plan to extend the bus express rapid transit (BERT) corridor limits of the Florida Turnpike Express. There will also be presentations on the Miami River tunnel feasability study and on the Miami-Dade Quick Build Program. The meeting begins at 2 p.m. in Miami-Dade commission chambers at 111 NW First St.

6:30-8 p.m. — The city of Miami Beach will have a community meeting on the kayak launch project planned for the waterway north of 73rd Street and west of Dickens Avenue, which will take about two months to build and will not affect the community garden. The meeting begins at 6:30 p.m. at the North Shore Park and Youth Center, 501 72nd Street.

THURSDAY — June 1

8:30 a.m. — The Mayor’s North Beach Plan Steering Committee meets at 8:30 a.m. at the Normandy Shores Golf Club, 2401 Biarritz Drive. Ladra doesn’t know where to get an agenda but this group is on a roll. Most recently, and at the behest of Commissioner Ricky Arriola, the committee has been pushing to get a version of Wynwood Yard, an outdoor venue in the popular Miami neighborhood with a lot of food truck events and where Shakira gave an impromptu concert the other day, on the city-owned lots across from North Shore Open Space Park. North Beach Yard would be similar to the original concept, but more retail-oriented. There may also be an organic farm for onsite restaurants to use and for locals to buy fresh produce from as well as an artists’ showcase. It would be interesting to see what the committee follows that up with.

6 p.m. — Soccer in Overtown? Some people love the idea. Others hate it. There will be a community discussion on Thursday about the sale of Miami-Dade county owned property in Overtown to David Beckham and partners so they can build the Major League Soccer stadium they have been talking about for years. Miami-Dade “officials” and staff are expected to be at the YWCA, 351 NW 5th St., but the notice on the county website doesn’t specifically say that Mayor Carlos Gimenez will be there. He was at the first one of these community meetings but there are at least two more next week.

SATURDAY — June 3

9 a.m.-1 p.m. — Miami-Dade Commissioner Esteban Bovo and the town of Miami Lakes will host a family fun day picnic at Picnic Park West, 15151 NW 82nd Ave. There will be a farmer’s market, free rides, music, and raffles.

11 a.m.-2 p.m. — The March for Truth in downtown Miami Saturday has attracted a bunch of politician candidates. Tallahassee Mayor and gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum, perennial candidate (Senate 40 this time) Annette Taddeo, Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez and Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez — both of whom have announced plans to run for Congress next year since Ileana Ros Lehtinen is retiring — will be at the anti-Trump demonstration, organized by a coalition of groups that include Women’s March, Indivisible 305, Indivisible Miami and RiseUp Florida. They demand truth and transparency, including an impartial investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and ties to President Donald Trump and so many of his friends and family. To get people to go, they are also briging food trucks, musical acts and face painting. No joke. Bring the whole family to the political march! Festivities begin at 11 a.m. at the Stephen P. Clark Center, 111 NW First St.

11 a.m.-2 p.m. — If you don’t know your Hurricane 101 yet, you must not be from around here. The Village of Palmetto Bay is offering a town hall on hurricane preparedness this Saturday at the municipal center, 9705 E. Hibiscus St. And here Ladra thought for sure Palmetto Bay Mayor Eugene Flinn would be at the march.

Mark Samuelian, a Miami Beach activist who ran for commission in 2015 and lost by 77 votes, filed Monday to run again, joining the clusterbunch of candidates in the Group 2 open seat. Apparently, nobody wants to run against former Commissioner Michael Góngora in the Group 3 race.

There are four first timers running already in that Group 2 race, for a seat vacated by Commissioner Michael Greico‘s bid for mayor. They are: Zachary Eisner, Robert Lansburgh, Joshua Levy and Rafael Velasquez. Samuelian, who is president of Miami Beach United and quite active on city issues, has more name recognition and, with the first round experience, is arguably the instant front runner, especially if he keeps his preservationists base.

Read related story: Miami Beach’s Mark Samuelian scores key endorsements

“Miami Beach has transformed into a truly world-class city, but we still face important challenges,” Samuelian said in a statement. “I look forward to utilizing my decades of real-world engineering and strategic business experience to help our city tackle major issues, including transportation, flooding and sea level rise, and quality of life for our residents.

In 2015, Samuelian — who also serves on the board of the Belle Isles Residents Association and the Pets Trust Advisory Board — had the Miami Herald endorsement as well as key endorsements from activists like  Frank and Marian DelVecchio and former Miami Beach Commissioner Nancy Liebman when he ran and lost to John Elizabeth Aleman, who was the mayor’s slate mate. In the end, he got 4,999 votes to her 5,076. By a nose. He had 49.62% of the vote. Which certainly would encourage anyone to try again.

Samuelian got onto the ballot in 2015 by collecting a record number of petition signatures and told Ladra that he expect to break that record this year. He and his team will repeat the gassroots walking campaign of two years ago. “We will be listening closely to Miami Beach residents and engaging in serious conversations about our future,” Samuelian said.

But seriously, the future probably holds more candidates for this open seat. Qualifying isn’t until September even. Let’s see how long Samuelian can stay top dog.

Former Miami Beach Commissioner Michael Góngora is getting a good head start on his bid to get his seat back, raising $70,000 (including a $20,000 loan to himself) for the Group 3 race in his first month.

By comparison, the two others bidding for the open seat — because Commissioner Joy Malakoff doesn’t want to be there if Mayor Philip Levine ain’t — combined haven’t raised half of that, according to the latest campaign finance reports filed last week: Adrian Gonzalez , owner of the well-known Cuban eatery David’s Cafe, has raised $23,738 in three months, and Cindy Mattson, a consultant who is a former compliance officer with the U.S. Department of Labor, has raised $7,000, including a $5,000 loan to herself and a $1,000 contribution from. Mattson has also spent the most, with consultant Miriam Almer getting $3,000 and $625 for event supplies. The two boys haven’t spent $1,000 yet, neither one of them, but for some reason it seems like it’s going to e a showdown between them two.

Almost a third of Góngora’s money comes from addresses outside of Miami Beach and it also includes some bundling, most notably $5,000 from businesses owned by James Cavanaugh, who owns and manages and may want to redevelop several properties in South Beach. He also has $2,000 each from the owner of Mango’s and from lobbyist Manny Prieguez. But Góngora also has a ton of smaller checks from a personal trainer and a speech therapist and quite a few activists like Frank and Marian Del Vecchio and Ray Breslin, who is president of the Collins Park Residents Association. These are people who not only vote, but drum up votes from others.

Read related story: Michael Gongora wants back on Miami Beach commission

About a third of Gonzalez’s $24K treasure chest is also from outside the city — from as far away as New York and Philadelphia and Scarborough, Maine. There’s no obvious bundling but there is some development and construction money, as well as sympatico restaurants like Sliderz and Munchies Cafe and bars with names like Foxhole and Drunken Dragon. Gonzalez has been president of the Lincoln Road merchants association and instrumental in bringing some new events to South Beach, but he is running as a family man, only having photographs of himself with his wife and two daughters on his website.

One of the most interesting contributions, so far, is a $1,000 maximum gift from Gayety Theaters, also known as Club Madonna on Washington Avenue, which has been at odds with the city for years and is now in litigation with it.

The strip club was already at fighting with city officials in 2014 over the owner’s request for a liquor license (denied) when authorities found a 13-year-old runaway girl stripping there by force of three other people who were ultimately charged by police. City Manager Jimmy Morales revoked Club Madonna’s business license. But two weeks later, he reinstated it after the club promised to put in measures that would prevent underage girls from dancing there. A year later, city commissioners passed a human trafficking ordinance requiring stricter records and that strip venues — of which there really only is one — hire a manager to guarantee legal requirements for the nude dancers are met.

So a few months ago, Club Madonna owner Leroy Griffith sued the city of Miami Beach. He says that the new rules have little to do with stopping human trafficking and more to do with shutting down the only strip club on the beach.

Góngora said Griffith offered him a check last month, but he declined.

“He only gives contributions in exchange for a promise to support alcohol and nudity,” Góngora told Ladra.

Okay, sure, but then what do James Cavanaugh and Manny Prieguez give contributions in exchange for?

Will the real Tuesday Morning Breakfast Club please stand up?

After a short hiatus, the morning powwows will resume just in time for the election season. But we don’t know if they start up again this week, with former Mayor Matti Bower hosting a breakfast at Puerto Sagua Restaurant and commission candidate Joshua Levy speaking — or they if they resume April 11th with developer Russell Galbut speaking at the Bakehouse Brasserie.

Which one is the real TMBC?

Started by “Save Miami Beach” leader Charles Schwabb in 1996, the “club” — which has no real formal structure, members or fees — began as an informal chat between activists who were concerned about overdevelopment. Mike Burke, a onetime candidate for mayor, was the first moderator. When he moved to Broward, David Kelsey, president of the South Beach Hotel and Restaurant Association, volunteered to moderate. Activist Frank Del Vecchio, who was involved from the second or third meeting, continued to send out email notices.

Read related story: Miami Beach Tuesday Morning Breakfast Club could be toast

Last January, the notice announced the club would have its last meeting because the venue, Manolo’s Restaurant, was closing. Kelsey got a little send-off.

But several regulars apparently didn’t want it to end and they started shopping for a new home and a new moderator. Del Vecchio, a longtime activist and original Tuesday morning breafaster, was one of them.

“Matti Bower responded positively and called me,” DelVecchio told Ladra on Sunday. “She found a location, the Puerto Sagua restaurant, and arranged for a speaker, city commission candidate Joshua Levy, for the Tuesday, March 28 meeting. I agreed to send out notices.”

And so he did, on March 22. Three days later, Ladra got a second notice about the resumption of the meetings — on April 11th at a different location with a different speaker.

Del Vecchio and others are suspicious of what they call the “shadow” Breakfast Club.

Russel Galbut

“Russell Galbut is using his Bakehouse Restaurant as a ploy in his suit against the city,” said Del Vecchio, referring to Bakehouse lawsuit against the city’s regulations on live entertainment south of Fifth Street. The Bakehouse Brasserie at 808 First Street, which is owned by a Galbut relative, was cited for having a sax player when all that is allowed in that area is non-amplified piano and strings.

“He is trying to negate the city’s zoning power to regulate where entertainment is allowed,” Del Vecchio said. “His latest gambit is enlisting David Kelsey to set up a breakfast club at the site that is the center of his suit against the city.”

Kelsey did serve as a board member of Galbut’s now defunct Miami Beach Taxpayers Association.

Ladra says the more the merrier. There is plenty going on in Miami Beach and South Florida to sustain both meetings. Except one may have to change its name — maybe the Wednesday Morning Breakfast Club?

After all, we can’t be in two places at once on Tuesday.

Former Miami Beach City Commissioner Michael Góngora will confirm weeks of speculation and file Monday for the commission race in Group 3.

Góngora was a commissioner from 2009 to 2013 in that seat before he ran for mayor in 2013 against Philip Levine. He also lost a race for Florida senate last year, but only because his name did not resonate outside the city. ven though there were five other candidates, he won almost 60% of the vote in Miami Beach and led in every precinct in the city.

“It shows me Miami Beach residents want me back in office,” Góngora told Ladra Sunday night as he left an Equality Florida event. “Now that my former Commission seat is vacant, I have a responsibility to return to office and help work on the issues Miami Beach is facing, which include transportation, development, flooding and mass transit.”

Read reated story: Michael Gongora, Jason Pizzo rack up endorsements for Senate

Gongora said that things haven’t really gotten better since he left office and that perhaps they have gotten worse.

“It’s time to get back to basics,” Góngora said. “Miami Beach has been focused on trying to e a player in the national arena,” Gongora said, referring to the offer of a Cuan embassy, the minimum wage ordinance and Levine’s attention on sea level rise and climate change.

“What we need are clean streets that are not flooded, a safer city, more transparency and financial oversight,” Góngora said, referring to the recent discovery that $3.6 million has been stolen from a city account and wasn’t even noticed missing for six months.

“That’s a huge issue,” he said adding that former Commissioner Deede Weithorn had warned about oversight in the finance department. “Nobody wants to own up to the problem. We’re spending money to study how to tighten up when we know what we need are more people and more oversight.”

Weithorn, former Mayor Matti Bower and current Vice Mayor Kristen Rosen Gonzalez — who has got to be hungry for an ally — are going to host the kick-off event for Góngora’s campaign on March 29, he said.

Read related story: Mike Grieco first to run for open Miami Beach mayor’s seat

The former commissioner is running for the seat now occupied by Commissioner Joy Malakoff, a pocket vote for Mayor Levine who has said she will not seek relection because theres nothing there for her when he’s gone.

Two other candidates have filed paperwork indicating they will run. Adrian Gonzalez has raised almost $7,500 and Cindy Mattson, who hadn’t raised anything as of the last report available, through February.

Góngora definitely enters the race as the frontrunner due to his leadership and likely support from a number of community organizations that he has been involved with for a long time, from before being elected in 2009 until the present. Last year, he was elected president of the Miami Beach Bar Association.

“I am confident the voters will choose my proven leadership and trusted experience to move Miami Beach forward,” Góngora said in a statement.

“I look forward to an energetic and positive campaign, communicating with voters about my vision for our City’s future, improving our traffic and infrastructure, and bringing back residents into government decisions by listening to the people about what their city government must focus on to improve their quality of life.”

Why not run for mayor?

“My personal and professional commitments don’t allow me the increased time and expense to run for mayor again right now,” Góngora said.

“I also believe that once a new mayor is elected this November the de facto strong mayor position will also be a thing of the past and we will go back to a system where the mayor and commissioners have nearly equal authority with regard to governance as one more vote on the commission,” he said in a not so sideways stab at Levine’s style.

“I will be more effective as commissioner as the senior member of the commission with the most years of experience,” Góngora added.

“And Miami Beach needs my leadership now.”