Everyone is concentrated on the special elections this summer and there’s more than a year to go before the primaries for the state legislative races next year. But a few open seats have hopefuls planning early — none more than in House District 115, the seat vacated by termed-out State Rep. Michael Bileca, which happens to be where Ladra lives and votes.

There are now six candidates — including Jeffrey “Doc” Solomon, por supuesto — with opened accounts, according to the Florida Division of Elections.

Solomon is a popular chiropractor “to the stars” that has run unsuccessfully twice already as a Democrat challenger to Bileca. But he won both primaries against Ross Hanckock and then losing to Bileca. Last November, it was 46 to the Bileca’s 54 percent. But it was a 2-point slide from how he did in 2012, when he lost to 47-53.

Nevertheless, these are respectable numbers against a much better financed incumbent. Bileca spent a little more than $200K last year, compared to Solomon’s $62,800. Since he filed in June, Solomon hasn’t reported any campaign contributions for this race yet.

And in an open seat with no incumbent, Solomon might benefit just enough from much higher name recognition. That is, if he gets through another primary. So far, he is one of only two Democrats in the race. The other is James Linwood Shulman, who raised $2,852 in his first month, May.

But there might be a surprise before qualifying. Because while this is considered a Republican stronghold, it’s really just barely that. Former President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney were separated by just a few hundred votes in 2012. Our neighborhoods are split pretty evenly down the middle with a lot of NPAs, like Ladra, that could make the difference. It’s not completely unimaginable that this seat turns blue in 2018. Especially if the Trump trainwreck continues to unfold.

Read related story: Republicans start lining up for 2018 state primaries, challenges

Who knows, the Dems might wanna back Solomon. At least this perennial candidate has been consistent. After a brief and also unsuccessful run for Pinecrest city council, this is Solomon’s third attempt at this state seat. Maybe the third time is the charm. There’s something to be said about persistence. Gee, what a concept. Unlike a lot of 305 politicos, it hasn’t ocurred to him to move his residence in order to chase a more winnable seat because no esta pa’ eso.

And again, he’s got that coveted name recognition that Mr. Shulman, nice as he may be, ain’t got.

Are you paying attention Mr. Stephen Bittel? Or are you too busy eating crow after calling black legislators “childish” and licking your wounds fom the residency violation perpetrated by your protege, State Rep. Daisy Baez? Well, you wanted so bad to be chairman of the Florida Democratic Party, now get over your clumsy intro. There are bigger fish to fry.

Because there are four, count ’em, four Republicans already raising funds to run for the seat. That includes Vance Arthur Aloupis, CEO of the Children’s Movement and the heir apparent, who has already raised $150,900 — including an impressive $103K picked up in the first month (March) from many of the usual suspects, including some lobbyists, signaling that he is, indeed, the handpicked GOP choice. His political consultant is lobbyist Michaeld Cantens, who is also the son of former State Rep. Gaston Cantens.

The other Republicans are: Carlos Daniel Gobel who filed in March and has raised $1,975; Carmen Sotomayor, who filed in January and has reported raising $250; and Rhonda Rebman-Lopez, who filed earlier this month — so she’ll submit her first campaign financial report in July — and who has been way too excited about it on twitter.

None of them, so far anyway, stand a snowball’s chance in Little Havana. If this 115 primary were this summer, Ladra would predict a general match between Aloupis and Solomon.

But there’s more than a year to go before the candidates have to qualify. And who knows? Maybe if Annette Taddeo loses the District 40 special election this year, she’ll move back into Pinecrest in time for next. 

Former State Sen. Dan Gelber will file for the Miami Beach mayoral seat in February.

Oh, he hasn’t committed. But after a short chat with Gelber Tuesday night, Ladra is predicting that he will, indeed, file for the seat very soon. My guess is he’s just waiting for the beginning of the month so he doesn’t have to file a wimpy campaign finance report for January.

“I am thinking very seriously about it and likely will make an announcement in a week or two,” Gelber told Ladra. “I’ve never been coy about public service. I am interested in the position and need to go through my own process.”

Ladra called the senator to ask him about the nasty anonymous email attack that went out Tuesday against Commissioner Michael Grieco, who is so far the only candidate who has announced his candidacy for mayor. Thank God he wasn’t offended, even though he said it’s not his style.

Read related story: Anonymous email attacks Michael Grieco

“I heard about it. It’s obviously nothing I had to do with,” Gelber told Ladra. “I don’t know if it even resembles the truth. I don’t work like that.”

Well, then perhaps it was someone who supports him and knows, like Ladra, that Gelber is going to put his hat in the ring. Las malas lenguas say the former senator is Levine’s handpicked successor, since Commissioner Ricky Arriola tanked in some telephone polls. After all, they have the same consultant, Christian Ulvert. And Gelber endorsed Levine in a overly flattering video in 2013.

A former prosecutor, Gelber was a state rep for Miami Beach from 2001 to 2009, when he became a state senator for two years, leaving in 2011 (succeeded by Sen. Gwen Margolis). He probably misses public office. It’s in his blood. His father, Seymore Gelber, was a judge and mayor of Miami Beach from 1991 to 1997.

In 2010, Dan Gelber ran unsuccesfully for Attorney General against Pam Bondi. But he raised more than $2.6 million and had a ton of hefty endorsements, including former state senator, former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno (who died last year,), former Florida Education Secretary Betty Castor and Congresswoman and DNC Vice Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz as well as the Florida Police Benevolent Association, the state’s largest law enforcement organization.

If Gelber runs for mayor, and Ladra is betting that he does, it is likely that he will be endorsed by some big Democrats yet again.

Ladra doesn’t know if he’ll get Bill Clinton, like Levine did in 2013, but maybe. Because they have the same consultant, Christian Ulvert. Las malas lenguas say the former senator is Levine’s handpicked successor, since Commissioner Ricky Arriola tanked in some telephone polls.

The last candidate forum hosted by the Kendall Federation of Homeowners Associations sounds like it might be a little one-sided: While three candidates have confirmed their attendance, their opponents will likely be MIA.

All of them are — surprise, surprise — incumbents.

By now, we are used to Miami-Dade Carlos Gimenez skipping the neighborhood debates and forums with School Board member and mayoral challenger Raquel Regalado. He agreed to three debates only after he was forced into a runoff — two on TV and one on radio (at 10 a.m. on WMBM Thursday morning) but none in front of a live audience. You don’t have to wonder why.

But the invite from the KFHA also says that Republican incumbent State Rep. Michael Bileca had not confirmed his attendance, though his challenger, Jeffrey Solomon, will be there. 

Also not coming: U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo, the Republican incumbent who is apparently sending a “representative from his office” to face former Congressman Joe Garcia, who Curbelo beat in 2014 amid damaging headlines about voter fraud. He shouldn’t be allowed to send a stand-in. We are not voting for a stand-in.

Also, Ladra hopes that when he says “office,” he means someone from the campaign office, not from his government office.

It’s a shame that Gimenez, Bileca and Curbelo have so little respect for the Kendall voters that they would skip this last opportunity to reach them at a debate where they would engage with their opponent. 

Tsk, tsk.

If you want to hear the one-sided arguments from the challengers, the event begins at 7:30 p.m. at the ‘civic pavilion’ at the Kendall Village Center, 8625 SW 124 Ave. (it’s that little room in front of the movie theater).

God help us, but Ladra thinks State Rep. Frank Artiles could very well become my state senator in November.

Yes, he is a homophobic, sucker-punching Fight Club aficionado who looks like Magilla Gorilla (it’s the jaw line), lied about his residency when he was first elected and wants to kill a Florida black bear. The only real thing to admire about him, personally, is that he’s a Marine.

But legislatively — and despite last year’s unfortunate and hateful transgender bathroom ban law that never got traction — Artiles has had some good ideas. Boy, that was hard to say. But he has. He wants to make Florida the 34th state with a cancer presumption law that would make it easier for firefighters to get health and disability benefits — which could be to cleanse his soul from saying in 2012 that they had firefighter/paramedics have cushy jobs. And he wants to make the top cop job at Miami-Dade Police an elected sheriff’s position, like in Florida’s other 66 counties.

And, now, for his first campaign for state senate, Artiles has tapped into another winning issue close to his constituency in Southwest Miami-Dade: Highway tolls.

Read related story: State Rep. Frank Artiles wants to kill a Florida black bear

He’s hit independent voters (like Ladra) at least twice with mailers vowing to take on the tolls in Tallahassee. They doesn’t say how, mind you. Just that “together we can fight excessive tolls on our expressways.”  What the mailer does is offer a “petition” that voters can sign that is really a postcard back to his campaign office — so they can target you again now that they know what pushes your buttons, maybe get you to vote absentee.

UPDATED: Artiles even has this hilarious web video on his Facebook page of people stripping their shirts off their backs — to express how the tolls are affecting us. One by one, they take their tops off for the camera. But don’t worry, there’s no nudity. It’s G-rated.

Whether Artiles can end excessive tolls or not is moot. Just the mere fact that he is willing to advocate against the increasing highway tax is going to be enough for many people who feel politicians have just been completely deaf to them about this issue.

It’s such a good issue that State Rep. Michael Bileca also put it on a mailer. But he actually has ideas about restructuring MDX and forcing it to recalculate the cost of tolls.

While everybody was concentrated on the primary last week, several Republicans without August challengers were eager to get to November, with mailers and TV ads already — since even before qualification and the Fourth of July.

That would be State Rep. Frank Artiles, who is running for Senate in District 40 against incumbent Sen. Dwight Bullard, who won Tuesday. Artiles, whose also had people knocking on doors, sent a Happy Fourth of July piece with a framed picture of his family. In others, he touts himself as an education champion. He even sent a 2016-2017 public school calendar as school started. Smart.

Read related story: So much Andrew Korge in the mailbox — maybe a record 

And Artiles is targeting independent voters, which is also smart. He’s got the Republicans sewn up already. And maybe he can win some Democrats over with his campaign against the MDX tolls. The most recent mailer Ladra saw touted Artiles’ fight against these tolls.

Incumbent Sens. Anitere Flores and Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, as well as State Rep. Michael Bileca, have also been working it alongside the August wannabes.

Flores has traveled to the Keys, which are also in her district, for months and she has been airing a TV commercial for a couple of weeks that features her husband, Dustin, and their two boys, who she is raising in the same neighborhood where she grew up.

The Flagship DLP started airing a TV ad this week, paid for by the United Teachers of Dade, featuring real teachers thanking him for listening to them and voting to increase their funding. He also sent a couple of mailers way before the primary. One of them had voter petitions enclosed, so it was even before qualification. The most recent used the Zika scare to offer voters a list of tips voters can keep on the fridge.

Read related story: Miguel DLP vs J-Rod make it a hard choice in Senate 37

Bileca’s most recent “fighting for taxpayers” mailer touts the old Miami Dolphins stadium financing he helped kill in 2013. What? He’s got nothing fresher from the last three years? He, too, is very smartly targeting independent voters. 

But his first piece — “Working Hard. Delivering Results.” — was sent in both English and Spanish and was a four-panel bi-fold. The latest piece is a 8X11 flat card.

Up to the north, State Sen. Rene Garcia and State Reps. Manny Diaz, Jr., Jose Oliva and Bryan Avila have been hitting the streets since at least mid August, when they opened their collective headquarters in Hialeah.

Maybe these early birds know that the weeks ahead are going to give our mailboxes a bellyache, so they snuck in before prime time.

Let’s see if voters remember come November.

Both the Democrats in the primary race for the seat in State House district 115 are similar in that both are well-liked gringos, perennial candidates who have run before and who are running wholly positive campaigns. In fact, some people who know them both are having a hard time making a choice.

But if the end game is to take out Republican State Rep. Michael Bileca and flipping the seat to blue, then Ross Hancock presents the better odds.

First, let’s look at just the numbers.

Both Hancock and Pinecrest chiropractor Jeffrey Solomon have run against GOP incumbents, but in 2012, Hancock came closer to beating Erik Fresen (lost 51 to 49%) than Solomon got to beating Bileca (lost 53 to 47%). And, even more importantly, he did it with far less money. Hancock had $8,230 to Fresen’s $265,800. Solomon spent $75,000 to Bileca’s $523,000.

Read related story: Perennial candidates may face off in House 115 Dem primary

Also, if Bileca beat Solomon in a year when Obama topped the ticket, there is no reason to think he can’t beat him again when Hillary is expected to cause less excitement among Democrats.

Hancock, meanwhile, may have additional appeal:

• He put his money where his mouth is this time, loaning himself $100,000 to get his message out. He was able to afford a giant billboard on U.S. 1 at 104th Street right on top of the Keg South in Pinecrest which he has secured through the general election (two million sets of eyes a day!) and still has more than $80,000 left. Solomon has loaned himself $5,300 and raised $18,500, but he has spent almost $18,000 so he only has $6,000 left.
• Hancock speaks Spanish, almost fluently. Hancock has been taking Spanish lessons for almost a year now. He wanted to be able to speak to the Hispanic voters in their language. He was on Buenos Dias Miami, Tomas Garcia Fuste’s Mira TV show, Saturday morning.
• He was once a registered independent. One of his yard signs — Hancock has two versions — states “declare your independence,” and he plans to appeal directly to these voters in the general. This could also attract Republican voters who may not be happy with their presidential nominee.
• He has a lot of influential endorsements. And that can translate into a lot of votes. The United Teachers of Dade endorsement pulls teachers and their families and people who think education is important. Ditto for the United Faculty of Miami-Dade. The SAVE endorsement pulls the gay vote and their families. The AFL-CIO endorsement pulls public employees and their families.

But don’t take my word for it. Go to the website for each candidate. If you look at even just the about page, you will see a huge difference. Solomon’s entire page is dedicated to how he has developed his professional career as a sports medicine celebrity. One almost gets the feeling this election presents another professional opportunity. Hancock’s is more about his dedication to environmental causes and his family.

Ladra also saw Hancock turn a Republican voter right in front of my eyes in the parking lot at the Coral Reef Library over the weekend. Well, actually, the Palmetto Bay voter was uncommitted — until Hancock told her about Bileca’s votes on open campus carry and fracking laws. Now, she’s voting for him. She even took a yard sign home!

And those signs! In all her years covering campaigns and elections, Ladra has never seen such a great sign, which is basically a photo of Hancock, paddling through the Everglades in a kayak he built out of mahogany marine plywood.

He built his own kayak! If that doesn’t scream Tallahassee I don’t know what does.