No Carollo, no ADLP = no real drama at Thursday’s Miami mayoral debate

There’s a Miami mayoral debate Thursday night, but the biggest news isn’t who’s talking. It’s who’s not going.
The Biscayne Neighborhoods Association, which is hosting the debate along with Griffin Catalyst, the philanthropic arm of billionaire Ken Griffin, decided to only invite the candidates who polled above 10% in a survey Griffin’s group commissioned.
Their list: Former City Manager Emilio González, Miami-Dade Commissioner Eileen Higgins, former City Commissioner Ken Russell and former Miami-Dade Commissioner Mayor Sir Xavier L. Suarez, who was the first Cuban-born mayor of Miami in 1995. These are the candidates out of the 13 in total who will get the spotlight — and airtime, because the debate streams live on NBC 6 and miamiherald.com.
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Two of the loudest figures in Miami Politics are apparently not going: Commissioner Joe Carollo reportedly made the threshold and was invited, but had not confirmed as of late Wednesday. And former City Commissioner Alex Díaz de la Portilla — running a redemption tour after political corruption charges were dropped last year — was left on the outside, looking in. He apparently did not even get 10% in the Griffin poll.
You know that’s going to sting.
The four who were invited also polled the highest — along with Carollo and ADLP — for the Downtown Neighbors Alliance debate last month, which became a political food fight of insults and zingers.
Thursday’s debate will be moderated by Miami Herald politics editor David Smiley and NBC 6 anchor Jackie Nespral at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts. It starts at 7 p.m., runs about 90 minutes, and while the audience is invite-only — and Ladra has asked to see the guest list — the rest of us can watch live on NBC 6 or stream it on miamiherald.com.
Who’s in — and what they bring
For Suarez, this is a homecoming of sorts. The elder statesman — or elder showman, depending who you ask — gets a primetime platform to remind voters that he was mayor before most of these other candidates were even in politics. He’s been trying to position himself as the grown-up alternative to the circus Miami has become under “El Loco” and “ADLP,” who, ironically, won’t be there to defend themselves. He will appeal to the nostalgic voters.
For Russell, who left a commission seat in 2022 to run for Congress, it’s a new venue in which to pitch himself as the rational, reform-minded alternative. He’s been hammering a message about transparency and ethics — two words that haven’t exactly been trending in Miami City Hall.
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For Higgins, the only woman on stage who is trying to become the first female mayor of Miami, it’s an opportunity to stand out. She’s already known countywide as a commissioner who digs into budgets and bureaucracy, and she’ll likely highlight her work on housing and transit. She might even call out the city’s dysfunctional permitting process, again.
For Gonzalez, a onetime President Bush appointee to U.S. Immigration and Citizenship Services, retired Army colonel and Trump fan, it’s a last chance to appeal to the other side of the aisle. A consistent conservative voice pitching tax relief and “back to basics” government, he touts the endorsements of Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Rick Scott and, most recently, U.S. Senator from Texas Ted Cruz. But all that could turn off Democrat and Independent voters, which he needs to win.
Who’s out — and why it matters
Carollo wouldn’t dare show up to a debate hosted by The Herald, which he calls the Miami Gramma, referring to the Communist Party’s newspaper in Cuba. Ladra doubts that Diaz de la Portilla would have gone, if he had even invited. He told Political Cortadito that the Griffin poll wasn’t realistic. “You have to be an idiot to believe that,” he texted Ladra.
“I am in a runoff with Higgins,” added Diaz de la Portilla, who paid $27,500 last month for his own poll, which he declined to share.
The organizers say the cutoff was 10% in the Griffin Catalyst poll. That’s convenient for them — and a little convenient for Griffin, who’s been spending big on “civic engagement” efforts since moving Citadel to Miami from Chicago.
But let’s be honest: Any debate without Crazy Joe and ADLP is going to feel… quieter. No fireworks. No finger-pointing. No reason for extra security. That might make for smoother television, but it also sanitizes what has been a messy, colorful race — and takes two of the biggest political personalities in the city out of the mix.
Ken hitting Eileen is not as much fun as when he hits Alex.
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And by cherry-picking who’s “serious” enough to stand under the bright lights, the debate hosts are shaping the narrative, perhaps to their favor.
Suarez gets legitimacy. Higgins gets exposure. Russell gets a chance to look sensible. González gets validation.
But in a city where politics is performance art, this debate might end up remembered less for what’s said on stage than for who got cut from the script.
The lights go up at 7 p.m. Thursday on NBC6 and miamiherald.com.

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