Even before 7 a.m. Tuesday, 4,287 voters had cast absentee ballots in the Coral Gables election. That’s almost 55% of the 7,835 ABs that were sent out.
That’s the highest number of mail-in ballots returned in the City Beautiful in at least 10 years, maybe all of history. And more may arrive Tuesday.
But while the city generally has a higher turnout on Election Day, a 90 percent chance of rain with thunderstorms predicted for Tuesday threatens to keep voters away from the polls this year, making those mail-in votes even more important than ever.
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Especially in the mayor’s race, which is a rematch of a contest lost by 187 votes two years ago and may be close again.
Incumbent Raul Valdes-Fauli, who only treats people well the two months he campaigns, beat former Commissioner Jeannett Slesnick in both mail-in and Election Day votes, but the day-of margin was smaller (15).
“We are really working on the absentees this time as that is where I fell short last time,” Slesnick said Monday evening. She said the rain is likely to fall between noon and 4 p.m., which are not peak voting times.
Still, both mayoral campaigns are offering voters rides to the polls. Slesnick put her personal cellphone number (305-975-8158) on all her emails and materials and says people can call her if they need help getting to vote.
Valdes-Fauli’s latest campaign finance report shows a $5,500 expense for “Election Day operations” to Bridge 305, which could be for transportation.
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A total of 8,416 people voted in the 2017 election, the highest turnout in the past decade. In 2015, it was 7,084 (3,770 absentee), in 2013 it was 7,047 (2,807 and in 2011, it was 7,922.
Back in 2001, when Valdes-Fauli was voted out of office the first time, 10,271 people voted. But Ladra bets it was a sunny day.
Four candidates are competing for the commission seat vacated by Commissioner Frank Quesada, who is not seeking a second term. They are former Commissioner Ralph Cabrera, attorney and homestead exemption cheat Jorge Fors, interim city manager and compulsive liar Carmen Olazabal and Jackson “Rip” Holmes.
“I’m absolutely concerned with tomorrow’s weather,” Cabrera said late Monday night. “Don’t know the impact it will have on turnout. However, traditionally, it has reduced turnout by as much as half.”
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Cabrera has reason to be concerned. He has traditionally done much better on Election Day than he has with mail-in ballots.
But, rain or shine, none of the four commission candidates are likely to take 50% plus one so there will likely be a runoff on April 23 between the two  highest vote-getters (read: Cabrera and someone else).
Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

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It’s no secret that former Pinecrest Mayor Cindy Lerner has been waiting for Miami-Dade Commissioner Xavier Suarez to be termed out or make his move so she can run for the district seat.
On Monday, she made those intentions clear when she filed documents Monday at the Miami-Dade Elections Department indicating she had opened a campaign account.
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In a statement released Monday afternoon, Lerner — who has kept active on issues, particularly sea level rise and infrastructure — made reference to broken promises and traffic.
“I am pleased to announce that I am a candidate to represent the people of Miami-Dade County Commission District 7. I grew up in Miami-Dade County and raised my 3 children in District 7. During that time, I have fought to make our community a better and stronger place for people to live, work, raise their families and enjoy a quality of life. The time has now come to act and address the serious threats to our community that require bold action by the Miami- Dade County Commission.
For too long, leaders have danced around pressing issues from traffic gridlock causing frustrated residents and workers to spend too much time traveling to and from their homes, work places, schools and other activities. For too long they have paid lip service to the real threat from sea level rise and flooding. For too long they have ordered studies to deal with the real danger to our drinking water and public safety from failing infrastructure.
I am running to represent the people in Commission District 7 because we can no longer afford hollow promises that simply waste taxpayer dollars and provide little results. We need new leadership for the district. In my vision as a county commissioner, the Commission and County Government work together and collaborate with the leaders of the many municipalities to implement solutions to the threats we face in District 7 and in Miami-Dade County. I am running because the clock is ticking and it is Time for Action.”
This sets up a contest between Lerner, a popular Democrat who was also a state representative from 2000 to 2008, and former Miami-Dade School Board Member Raquel Regalado, a popular and moderate Republican who forced Mayor Carlos Gimenez into a runoff in 2016.
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Regalado, who briefly ran for Florida Senate and then U.S. Congress last year before abandoning both, switched to the county commission bid and started fundraising in February. She has already raised $19,000 for her county commission bid, according to her last campaign reports. That includes notable small bundles like $2,000 from Norman Braman, $2,000 from lobbyist Jorge Luis Lopez and $3,000 from lobbyist Eric Zichella.
Of course, more candidates are expected in this open seat.
Scratch Coral Gables Commissioner Vince Lago off he list. He is said to be looking at a mayoral run in the City Beautiful in 2021. But former Miami Commissioner Marc Sarnoff is still in play.
District 7 runs from the southern tip of Brickell Avenue all the way to Miami-Dade College’s Kendall Campus. It includes all of Key Biscayne, Coconut Grove, South Miami, Downtown Dadeland and Pinecrest as well as  large parts of Coral Gables and East Kendall near Baptist Hospital.
 

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