Poll has Eileen Higgins in Miami mayoral runoff with Emilio Gonzalez

A poll released by Eileen Higgins‘ own campaign says that the Miami-Dade commissioner is leading the other 10 candidates for Miami mayor by a lot. But there’s no way that anyone can win this clusterbunch election outright. There’s going to be a runoff.
And the only one close to Higgins, according to these numbers, is former City Manager Emilio Gonzalez, who filed the lawsuit that killed the city’s move to change the election to next year and has gotten a lot of free press from it, helping to position himself as the hero that saved democracy in Miami.
Read related: First lawsuit filed to stop city of Miami from cancelling November election
Not everyone believes an internal poll, because, well, the questions may have been written a certain way and it is unlikely to be announced if the candidate’s numbers come out badly. This poll was announced two hours and 23 minutes before the campaign sent out a fundraising email. So, yeah. But a Higgins-Gonzalez face-off is not impossible. Higgins also enjoys free press from her incumbent position as the district 5 county commissioner and scored a 74% in name recognition, highest in the pack.
Higgins clocked in at 36% support — that’s 21 points ahead of González, who’s sitting at 15%.
In the crowded field, Miami Commissioner Joe Carollo — who hasn’t filed any paperwork but is threatening to run — and former Miami-Dade Commissioner Xavier Suarez, who has filed paperwork last month, polled at 11% and 7%, respectively. Both are former mayors with huge amounts of publicity. Former Miami Commissioner Ken Russell got about 12% and the rest of the candidates are either somewhere in the single digits or still introducing themselves to abuela at the bus stop.
Russell, in third place, sees something to celebrate. “When the dynasties aren’t even breaking the top three, we know that Miami is ready for change,” he told Political Cortadito.
Read related: Former Miami Mayor Xavier Suarez to file for crowded city mayoral race
Higgins’ enviable name recognition ranks at 74%, with a net +18 favorability. González and Russell are liked by more people than not, but fewer voters know them. Carollo and Suarez? Well… voters know them all right. Just not in a good way.
“This has rapidly evolved into a two-person race, with Commissioner Higgins in a commanding position,” MDW wrote in the polling memo. We’ll see how “commanding” it looks after the attacks start flying.
The only politicians who rated more favorably than Higgins were Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and President Donald Trump.

The online survey by MDW Communications (read: Michael Worley), which has been retained by Higgins’ political committee, Ethical Leadership for Miami, which raised $250,000 in the last quarter reported (more on that later). It got 511 likely voters to respond between July 27 and Aug. 1. And yes, it included quick bios of all the candidates. (So everyone got a little PR moment.)
The sample, for you demographic nerds, 58% were Hispanic, 22% non-Hispanic white, 16% Black or Caribbean, and 4% “other.” A majority — 66% — were 55 or older.
And while it’s technically a non partisan race, those are ceasing to exist in the post Trump Miami-Dade. In the poll, Democrats accounted for 41% of the respondents, Republicans for 35% and NPAs or no-party voters for 24%. Higgins and Russell are Democrats. Carollo and Gonzalez are Republicans. Suarez is an NPA. A few other rumored Republican contenders — former Miami Commissioner Alex Diaz de la Portilla, Congressman Carlos Gimenez and Miami-Dade Commissioner Raquel Regalado — were not included in the poll. Possibly because the rumors are not likely to play out.
The qualifying deadline is Sept. 20.
Read related: Courts killed Miami commission’s election shuffle, but city wants a do-over
The poll also asked about two hot issues:

On the commission’s boneheaded attempt to push the election to 2026 without asking voters first, which has been ruled unconstitutional by the courts — 79% of respondents opposed the date change, with 69% “strongly” opposed. Only 11% supported it, and 9% didn’t care. That’s a big ol’ “don’t even try that again” from Miami voters.
On the watered down proposal for lifetime term limits — which has a loophole cut for both Suarez and Joe Carollo, whose brother, former Miami Commissioner Frank Carollo, is running for his old seat — 71% said they’ll vote yes, 20% said no, and 9% are still thinking about it. That seems like a sure bet. City Commissioner Damian Pardo, who put it on the ballot, must be proud.

Read Full Story