Yes, we already know that former State Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla is the biggest loser in the special shotgun wedding election in Miami-Dade District 5, getting shut out of the runoff by Zoraida Barreiro and Eileen Higgins — his third loss in a hisif.
Fifth, if you count his brothers’ defeats. 
And, yes, Higgins is the big winner, with an upset that surprised even herself.
But, as usual, there are other winners and losers from the race. And they are:
WINNERS
Miami-Dade Democrats — Local Democrat leadership put a lot of effort and money into the non partisan race backing Higgins, the sole Democrat against three Republicans (Carlos Garin doesn’t count with only 5%). The party paid the pricy consultant’s bills. Even Tallahassee Mayor and gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum reached out, tweeting to voters during early voting that they should support Higgins. And it is the third special election win for them in six months, with Sen. Annette Taddeo beating former State Rep. Jose Felix “Pepi” Diaz and lobbyist Javier Fernandez beating the much better financed Andrew Vargas, a proxy for former State Rep. and U.S. Ambassador Carlos Trujillo. No doubt Juan Cuba is in a good mood these days.
Women — No matter what happens in the runoff June 19, there will be another woman on the commission, and that is a good thing because it will make the dais more balanced. While there can never me an even split among 13 board members, it was 8 men and 5 women when Bruno Barreiro, who resigned from this seat to run for Congress, was on the dais. No matter what, it is now 7-6.
Christian Ulvert — After helping Annette Taddeo this pretty much solidifies Ulvert as the go-to golden boy for special elections. But that is not all he’s done. He has also now beat a Diaz de la Portilla three times: First in 2012 with Jose Javier Rodriguez against ADLP in House District 112, then with J-Rod again against Miguel Diaz de la Portilla for the Senate in 2016. And now this. Eh, just another notch in his belt. Over the past decade or so, Ulvert has built an operation to help Democrats get elected. There was State Rep. Luis Garcia, J-Rod (three times), Miami-Dade Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava, former Miami Beach mayor and gubernatorial candidate Philip Levine. Watch: The Democrats are going to name a sandwich after him. And then he’ll be even more cocky.
Voters — After weeks of terrible negative attacks against the two dynasty candidates — even Higgins got a swing or two in there — voters will likely get a reprieve. Not from all the negative mail. Just from the really ugly kind. There might still be some reference to the Bruno love for the Marlins deal or overly dramatic concern over Higgins’ lack of history here. But it’s not going to be evil. En otras palabras, now that Alex is gone, nobody will be calling anyone a communist whore.
LOSERS
“Crazy” Joe Carollo — The Miami Commissioner endorsed ADLP and even went with him to distribute pastelitos and swag at campaign events in elderly housing and comedores.  It could have been a tit tat thing, since ADLP helped Carollo win his commission seat last year. Or it could just be that the Dean has burned so many bridges and friends that he is forced to scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Carlos “Mr. Giveaway” Gimenez — The Miami-Dade mayor endorsed ADLP and his family — and principally his son CJ Gimenez, the mediocre but well-connected lobbyist — reportedly worked on the senator’s campaign. Now they can go back to hanging out in Joe Carollo’s office.
Did I forget someone? In either column? Please feel free to share in a comment below any winners and/or losers that escaped Ladra’s attention.
Until the next election — which happens to be in 27 days.

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Political newby heads into runoff with Zoraida Barreiro
Gringa political virgin Eileen Higgins either waged a very good campaign or voters in Miami Beach and Little Havana are tired of the same ol’, same ol’.
Higgins pulled a rabbit out of her hat Tuesday with an amazing upset, not just squeaking into a runoff as Ladra had predicted, but beating the front runner by two whole points in a special shotgun wedding election for Miami-Dade Commission that everyone expected her to lose. She goes into round two with Zoraida Barreiro, wife of the last commissioner in District 5, who everyone expected to win.
Higgins still has a runoff to go but she won round 1 with 35% of the vote, ahead of Barreiro with 33% and former State Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla was six points under that with 27%.
Pobrecito Alex. He has now lost three comeback bids. He was always running for number 2 in this District 5 commission race , because Barreiro — the wife of a 20-year incumbent — always had the advantage. Still, Ladra bets it hurts him to get beat by someone named Eileen Higgins who has only been in Miami for four or five years.
Maybe ADLP — who got no love from any notable Republicans and late nods from Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez and Miami Commissioner Crazy Joe Carollo — will get the message: Nobody wants you back in office. In the background is where you win.
Higgins had a very solid grassroots campaign and the support of local and state Democrats — who pushed hard for her — as well as most of the labor unions, which could have contributed to this win against two sorta incumbents with dynasty names and more money. Higgins raised just over $50,300 by Friday. Zoraida had raised $139,120 and ADLP had reported raising $92,150.
What makes it more amazing is that it didn’t happen over a three or four month period. It happened in four weeks. And in a special shotgun wedding election orchestrated to benefit the wife of former Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, who really didn’t have to make his resignation effective immediately but did because Republicans with political machines do very well in special elections.
“We took a newcomer who is passionate about issues and deeply involved in the community and that is why she was able to put together the right resources in a short amount of time,” said Christian Ulvert, a Democratic political operative whose team worked on Higgins’ campaign. “We targeted the right voters. It was a turn-out game.”
And that included Republicans, because Ladra knows quite a few who broke with the party — even though this is a non partisan race, it is sorta not — and Cuban-Americans who broke with tradicion to vote for la gringa Democrata.
“The stronghold Republicans had in Miami-Dade County is about to be gone,” Ulvert said, reminding Ladra that this is the third special election — which used to be a gift to the GOP — in six months won by the blue team. It comes on the heels of wins by Democrat Sen. Annette Taddeo (finally) against a state GOP giant like Jose Felix “Pepi” Diaz (who beat ADLP, too) and lobbyist Javier Fernandez, who slayed Andrew Vargas, the handpicked proxy of former State Rep. and U.S. Ambassador Carlos Trujillo.
But Ladra is not so sure it was as anti-Republican as it was anti-incumbent — because both Barreiro and ADLP seem like incumbents, don’t they — and anti-dynasty. The first mail piece that dropped in the special election was a Higgins piece against political dynasties. That’s not a Democrat message. That’s not a Republican message. It’s a voter message.
“Tonight, voters showed that they are ready for fresh leadership and a new vision,” Higgins told a crowd of supporters who gathered at a Brickell pub to celebrate. “The residents of District 5 rejected status quo politics and are ready to elect a champion who will fight for a transit system that works, combat sea level rise with a plan and delivers on affordable housing initiatives.
“I’m ready to work harder to earn the votes of District 5 residents as we gear up for the June 19th election,” she said, because there is a runoff less than a month away and Higgins is again — despite the short-lived victory Tuesday — the underdog.
 

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In a last ditch effort to motivate Democrat voters in the Miami-Dade Commission District 5 race, a number of state and local Dems are doing a full press court for Eileen Higgins, the sole blue candidate among three Republicans in this non partisan race.
“My friend Eileen Higgins has the commitment, smarts and energy to be a wonderful public servant,” posted state Rep. Nicholas Duran. “#EarlyVoting runs through the weekend and #ElectionDay is May 22nd #GoVote @eyesonmyworld has my support.”
Miami Commissioner Ken Russell and congressional candidate Matt Haggman are among the many Dems that are trying to get blue voters engaged.
All the way from Tallahassee, Mayor Andrew Gillum took a break from his gubernatorial campaign to talk with Higgins and then encourage his followers to support her: “Had a great chat with @eyesonmyworld earlier today and we need to help get her across the finish line THIS coming Tuesday 5/22 in Miami-Dade,” Gillum tweeted Saturday, referring to Higgins’ and her twitter handle. “She’s the progressive leader we  need. Get involved & make a plan here,” he went on, posting the website and #BlueWave2018.
A day earlier, Miami-Dade Democrats tweeted “Of 200K+ residents, 1K have voted early in person and 6K have voted by mail. This special election will come down to turn out. Last chance, remind your friends in District 5 to vote Eileen Higgins @eyesonmyworld this weekend, before election day.”
Even though this is a non partisan race, Democrats have an opportunity here to advance someone new via the very motivated anti-Trump voters and, possibly, change the balance of power on the county commission. They are taking this very seriously. At both the Democratic primary debates for the Congressional District 27 race, Democrats have told the audience to vote for Higgins and to tell their friends to, too.
The recent tweets take that push to a new level. And maybe it pushed  more people out to vote on the last day of early voting Sunday, with 252 people casting ballots at the four libraries, only two fewer than on the first day. But, seeing as how it is also the last day, maybe the tweets did nada. It’s not direct voter contact. Higgins needs a robocall. Or two.
The total for early voting, which generally tends to lean Democrat, is 1,698. That compares to 7, 029 absentee ballots, which generally tend to lean Republican, that were returned as of Friday. Ladra expects at least another 500 between now and Tuesday.
Higgins is the sole Democrat running against two Republicans to replace former Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, who resigned abruptly last month to run for Congress. Well, three, but nobody counts radio host Carlos Gorin. Not when you have former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla and Zoraida Barreiro, the commissioner’s wife, sucking all the air out of the room.
How come we don’t see Marco Rubio tweeting for his old House mate? Or Ileana tweeting for Zoraida? Feels like the Republican establishment is just not as gung-ho about their prospects in this race.

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If ever there was a race where absentee ballots was going to make the deciding factor, it is the special shotgun wedding election in Miami-Dade’s County District 5.
Four candidates are vying to replace Bruno Barreiro, who resigned last month so he could run for Congress: His wife, Zoraida Barreiro, former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla, radio show host and former Telenovela star Carlos Gorin and Democrat activist and dark horse contender Eileen Higgins.
Election Day is on Tuesday, but it’s possible that the winner has already been decided.
As of Wednesday, there had been 6,703 ABs returned to the elections office, which is almost 30% of the 22,388 that went out. By the end of the day Friday, it will likely have surpassed the 7,088 that were returned during the last big contest in that district: 2012’s challenge to Barreiro by former State Rep. Luis Garcia. It’s only 385 ABs short. On Wednesday alone, 382 came in.
Read related: Miami-Dade special District 5 election is really a race for No. 2 on Tuesday
Sure, the Garcia vs Barreiro bout was a presidential primary and this is a shotgun wedding special election in a non presidential year that some people still don’t know is happening. But it’s the closest thing we could find to compare. There were two other nobodies running in that race, too, forcing the runoff after Barreiro failed to get 50%, even though he led ABs by about 1,500, a margin he was able to keep in the general, when it did make the difference in a 52-48 split.
In that first round in 2012, Barreiro got 3,784 absentee votes. Those are the ones that his wife — who only captured 676 ABs in the city District 3 election last year — is going after.
That same August in 2012, Alex DLP beat Zory’s brother-in-law, former State Rep. Gus Barreiro, in the Republican primary for State House 114 with 59% of the vote. In that first round, ADLP got 2,145 ABs.
You do the math.
Every campaign is going after those ABs hard. Barreiro told Ladra that voters have called her to report that people had already tried some shenanigans in Section 8 housing — hotbeds of absentee ballots, like fishing in a barrel.
Hopefully, the authorities are looking at these numbers, too, and have people in place to catch any fraud or intimidation.
 

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With less than a week to go, the race for No. 2 in 5 is on.
Most political observers in the 305 expect a runoff in the special shotgun wedding election for Miami-Dade commission District 5 to replace Bruno Barreiro, who resigned to run for congress. So the battle on Tuesday really becomes one for the No. 2 place finish.
And it looks like former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla is fighting newcomer activist Eileen Higgins for that spot.
Bruno’s babe, Zoraida Barreiro, is likely leading all the candidates’ internal polls. There are a few reasons for that: She’s the only Hispanic female Republican in a race centered in Little Havana and she already had a well-oiled machine warm from the Miami commission race she ran last year. Even though she lost, she likely had a good number of her core voters in the district already identified from Day One.
Read related: Special Miami-Dade Commission race has us entre un rock y un hard place
Oh, and then there’s the fact that a Barreiro hasn’t lost in this district in, well, 20 years.
That’s why you see ADLP — who has lost his last two elections (five if you count the ones he lost for his brothers) — consistently hitting Barreiro in mail pieces while Higgins is hitting ADLP, not Barreiro. Sure, she did that mail piece about rejecting dynasties, which can be applied to both. But she singled ADLP out.
“Zero achievements. High taxes. Typical politician,” it says, only in Spanish so it sounds worse. Doesn’t matter if it’s not entirely true. I mean,  ADLP did sponsor that law where everybody gets a landline phone dial tone, even if you didn’t pay your phone bill, to call 911 if you have to. Didn’t he? That’s achieving something.
The piece, with a red arrow pointing to a picture of ADLP, cites tax increases in the appropriations or worker’s compensation bills of 2008 and 2009, when ADLP was a state senator.
Read related: Another shady PAC attacks Zoraida Barreiro in county Commission race
Hector Roos, a political consultant not on anyone’s payroll in this race, says that it’s natural for Higgins to go after ADLP. Zory is going after the 50% plus one. ADLP is going after Zory. So Higgins goes after ADLP. Except Roos put it in text: “50+% > Zory > ADLP > Higgins. Think PacMan, each after their own goal.”
Supported by the Miami-Dade Democrats, which is going all out to get out the vote for the only Dem in the nonpartisan race, Higgins — who has yet to be attacked, at least publicly — could very well peel some votes from Diaz de la Portilla. The anti-Barreiro votes, anyway.
So does that mean ADLP is playing into Higgins’ hands with attacks like this one?

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Nothing like a little fire under your, er, feet to get those contributions coming in, eh?
Candidates in the special election for Miami-Dade Commission District 5 have less time than probably anyone in the history of special commission races to raise funds. The election is May 22. So, basically, they’ve had little more than a month.
So far, heir apparent Zoraida Barreiro, wife of former Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, who resigned abruptly March 31, is leading the pack in contributions with $55,500, more than twice the next candidate, which is not former State Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla. No, Alex comes in third behind newby candidate, Eileen Higgins, a Democrat activist with an impressive first report of $25,080.
Yeah, okay, so she loaned herself $5,000 and another $3,000 came from relatives. The donations on her campaign finance report — all filed through April 20 — also include some notable contributions from notable Democrats like former Pinecrest Mayor Cindy Lerner, former Miami-Dade Commissioner Katy Sorenson and Robert Cava, husband of Miami-Dade Commisioner Daniella Levine Cava. Notable because each of those people could raise Eileen another $10,000 each if they wanted to and they really expect her to compete.
Read related: Special Miami-Dade commission race has us entre un rock y un hard place
Higgins also has $5,000 in six bundled contributions from companies owned by or tied to Uri Benhamron and Gary Ressler. Maybe she’s not such a newby, after all.
She has also spent $1,080 on t-shirts and buttons and $2,100 on an event for senior citizens. See? She knows what she’s doing.
Dean DLP is lagging behind with $16,500, more than half of which ($9,500) is loaned to himself. So he’s actually got just $7,000 (as of April 20) in all maximum gifts, from people who believe in him, which include a wine distributor in Broward and a software company in Chicago. He also already got a $1,000 donation from a political action committee called Floridians for Strong Leaders that Ladra couldn’t find in the state or county databases. But it leads us to the most likely scenario: Alex has a PAC already or a 501C3. He likes soft money more than hard money. And there’s money that should be there. Where is all the Disney money? Where is all the lobbyist Tallahassee money? Where is all the American Nightmare money (since his brother Miguel is the lobbyist on record for the megamall)?
But Ladra looked and couldn’t find any new PACs with his name on them filed at the county or state. The Dean has Floridians for Responsible Solutions, which did collect $20,000 in February, at a time when Alex was staying in a Tallahassee Econolodge — oh, how the mighty have fallen — so he was probably lobbying something or other. But nothing obvious for this race. Not yet, that is.
So Zoraida Barreiro may truly be leading in campaign finance pole position with her $55,500. None of that is loaned to herself so it’s all from donors. Kudos Mrs. B!
But a few chunks of it are bundled, like the $5,000 from companies owned by or tied to veteran developer Sergio Pino, $4,000 from Demetrio Perez companies, $3,000 from Beach Towing and their lobbyist and $2,000 each from developer Armando Guerra and the city of Miami firefighters union.
She also has $1,000 from Balsera Communications, which makes Ladra go hmmmmm. Because CJ Gimenez, the county mayor’s favorite son, works for Freddy Balsera, who has worked for Carlos Gimenez. Wouldn’t they naturally be supporting DLP? Or is the happy love triangle over?
Zory has also spent the most through April 20, with more than $11,000 out — including almost $7,000 for a mailer and $1,000 for a ticket to a Miami-Dade Gay and Lesbian Chamber event. ADLP, meanwhile, spent $5,423.15 so far, including about $4,000 for a mailer and $850 for printing. Can’t see him going after the LGBT vote.
But with a little more than three weeks left before this bizarre election is over, one thing is certain: Mo’ money is gonna fly.
It’s flying already.

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