It’s not even over yet, and already more people have voted in the runoff for the special shotgun wedding election in Miami-Dade District 5 than in the first round when there were twice as many candidates.
Early voting ends Sunday and already, through Saturday, there had been 2,055 ballots cast at the four early voting locations. Voters cast 1,696 ballots during early voting before the May 22 election, where Eileen Higgins and Zoraida Barreido got the top two scores (35 and 33 percent, respectively) to proceed into the runoff Tuesday.
And even though Carlos Garin and former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla got bumped off in the first round, there have already also been more absentee ballots cast this time: With 8,250 just through Friday compared to 7,715 for all four candidates last time.
That means more than 10,300 people have already voted. And does that mean that Higgins is closing the gap?
Common political thought has Zory — wife of former Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, who is running for Congress and timed his resignation to help usher his wife into office — taking Tuesday with 60% of the vote. Ladra thinks it’s going to be closer: maybe 54-46, which would still be an amazing finish for la gringa, a newby candidate nobody heard of before April.
Look, that’s not what Ladra wants, mind you. It’s just what is happening. Miami Herald reporter Doug Hanks tweeted that there were more Republican ballots cast than Democrats, by less than three percent. But the push that Barreiro and her supporters are making at the end is unprecedented among Republicans, who typically focus on absentee ballots.
Yes, Higgins is a good candidate and makes an attractive prospect, even before the Democrats put her on overdrive. She would bring a much needed voice and add checks and balances to the commission. And yes, I do believe those postcards from people outside the district urging Democrat voters to come out have made a difference and narrowed the gap.
But then: (1) This is a district where Hispanic voters have traditionally outperformed for Hispanic candidates; (2) A Barreiro, albeit Bruno, has represented the district for 20 years; (3) Most if not all of Carlos Garin’s votes and ADLP’s votes go Zory’s way.
And then there is (4) The Marco Rubio factor.
That mailer with Marco Rubio’s endorsement — the golden ticket of GOP nods — went not just to super voters, Ladra heard, but also to every single Republican registered in the district. It was really call to action, an effort to encourage Republicans who were going to sit it out, to come out Election Day. If there hasn’t been a robocall already, one is coming.
That means the numbers are just going to keep going up.

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Are nonpartisan municipal races a thing of the past?
 
The Democrats made them do it.
That’s what Nelson Diaz, chairman of the Miami-Dade Republican Party, said about an email they blasted Wednesday for Zoraida Barreiro, who is running in the special shotgun wedding election for the county commission district 5 seat vacated by her husband Bruno Barreiro, so he could run for Congress.
“Of course we’re going to help Zoraida,” Diaz told Ladra last week. “And you can blame the Democrats. My preference is not to do that. It’s important to have independent, free elections at the local level. But if Democrats are going to get involved to push their radical, left wing agenda, then we will get involved.”
And so they did.
“We Need to Stop the Democrats,” the email reads.
“The Democrats are trying to force a radical, left-wing liberal that just recently moved to Miami from out of state. She is so out of touch with our community, she has stated her support for the elimination of the Homestead exemption. If she wins, they will have enough Democrats to take down the tax deduction and it will increase our taxes,” it says, urging votes for Barreiro.
“We cannot allow the Democrat to win!”
Read related: Dems push full court press for Eileen Higgins in special District 5 county race
Sure sounds like a desperate cry — and Ladra is pretty sure Higgins would not advocate lifting the Homestead exemption, which isn’t the county commission’s purview anyway, but, hey, it’s a good tactic in the working class parts of the district: “Oh! My! God! She’s going to raise taxes!” It’s almost as good as “She’s a communist!”
Diaz said Higgins said as much in a Spanish-language TV  interview. But la gringa — whose Spanish is okay but could be better — was only saying what many electeds at the county and cities are saying: That this additional exemption voters are likely to pass in November is going to drain government coffers and cause serious cuts. Government officials and sitting electeds everywhere are worried about that and planning.
“It must have been misinterpreted in my terrible Spanish,” Higgins said, adding that the county mayor has done a good job. “We have to plan for it. When we sit around meetings and say we want more buses we have to remember that when we vote in November.”
Democrats have been actively and publicly helping Eileen Higgins in this race since the very beginning. She was the only Democrat running against three Republicans, including former State Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla. The party paid political consultant Christian Ulvert, who took precious time from a gubernatorial candidate. And Higgins had local electeds, state reps and even another gubernatorial candidate endorse and promote her online.
She won the first round with 35%, two points over Barreiro, forcing a runoff. Democrats like to think they did that. After all, it’s not their first rodeo.
While it’s the first time the local GOP steps into a traditionally non-partisan municipal race, Diaz said, the local Dems have been involved in them since at least Daniella Levine-Cava ran for Miami-Dade Commission. Her race in 2014 against incumbent Lynda Bell, who happened to be a staunch right-to-life Republican, became the first local non partisan election the Miami-Dade Democratic Party got really involved in. Since then, they’ve helped Homestead Mayor Jeff Porter, Miami Beach Commissioner Micky Steinberg and Miami Commissioner Ken Russell.
Read related story: Eileen Higgins would upset the apple cart, add checks and balances
“We’ve always had the approach that if you’re running for office, who you affiliate yourself with, what party, speaks to the types of decisions you’ll be making at the dais,” said Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairman Juan Cuba. “Even though it’s local, we’re dealing with zoning and services. And you also deal at the local level with national issues — minimum wage, affordable housing, police oversight.”
Sanctuary cities. Gender-neutral bathrooms.
“We do want to make sure we are electing people who align with our values, especially at the local level where we need more people who will fight for working families,” Cuba said.
The Miami-Dade Commission already has a Democrat majority. And that doesn’t necessarily translate to a “progressive agenda” when it comes to the votes. The mega mall development, for example, was passed with Levine-Cava as the sole dissenting vote. In fact, that happens to her a lot. And the ordinance to hold immigrant detainees for ICE — to remove Miami from the list of sanctuary cities and please Donald Trump — was sponsored by Sally Heyman, a Democrat and former state rep.
On the flip side, Mayor Carlos Gimenez endorsed Hillary Clinton — though one could argue that was a publicity stunt since his son works for Trump — and Commissioner Jose “Pepe” Diaz, another Republican, is very friendly to labor, which is usually a Democrat characteristic. Barreiro has long been considered a moderate Republican because he pioneered LGBT issues. But he represents Miami Beach, so maybe he sorta had to.
Read related: Lynda Bell vs. Levine-Cava debate becomes heated spar
Levine-Cava, the first Democrat elected to the commission with the party’s help, says she doesn’t see the commission as a partisan body. “It’s more about local issues and quality of life. Transit is not a Democrat or a Republican issue,” she told Ladra.
Well, maybe not. But let’s bring up the idea of raising taxes for it or having special taxing districts and you will see partisan division.
Some people fear that this marks the end of nonpartisan races in Miami-Dade and they could be right. Florida law requires judicial candidates to stay non-partisan, but how much you wanna bet that we know who is a Republican and who is a Dem. Candidates in the big cities like Miami Beach and Homestead are already using the invisible “D” and “R”behind their names for campaigning. Small cities are likely next in an increasingly divided and polarized political society.
 

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The big news isn’t that Miami Commissioner Joe Carollo fired his one-time campaign manager, right hand man and District 3 Liasion Steven Miro. The big news is why.
Sources tell Ladra that Miro made a complaint to the Miami-Dade State Attorney’s Office recently about Carollo using city funds and city personnel to campaign for Alex Diaz de la Portilla‘s county commission bid, which the former senator lost, coming in third, last month. This about those events at almost every elderly public housing facilities and comedores in the district — and maybe $3,000 or so worth of paella. 
Miro would not comment on the investigation into Carollo using city funds and people — practically everyone on his staff — to promote Diaz de la Portilla. Both men are in a photograph here from Carollo’s own Instagram account, posted May 19, at the Little Havana Nutrition and Activities Center, handing out paper platefuls of paella. Miro would only say that he had hired Matthew Sorelson as his attorney to sue for wrongful termination. “I was given no justification. I am not a slacker. I work,” he said.
Sorelson works with JC Planas and was one of the lawyers working for Alfie Leon, who challenged Carollo’s residency days after he lost last year’s commission runoff election, with only 47%. Leon lost his final appeal last month when a judge, in essence and loathe to overturn an election, basically said he acted too late. Sorelson confirmed to Ladra Wednesday night that he had been retained by Miro but would not comment further on the merits of the case.
Carollo did not return two calls and two text messages to he and his wife’s cellphones late Wednesday. But if it’s true, it would be a little ironic in the sense that Carollo said he was fired as city manager in Doral by Luigi Boria because he was cooperating in state attorney led investigations against the then mayor. He was a whistleblower. Now he is firing the guy who blew the whistle on him?
Ladra has three sources, including one very close to the investigation, who told her that Miro had made the complaint to the SAO in recent weeks. And it may be a good one: There are photos all over social media indicating that Carollo used city resources to campaign for Alex. “This week, I was able to visit our seniors and bring a paella lunch,” Carollo wrote on the Instagram Post. Facebook photos on his wife’s page from an event at another public housing facility are posted under “A big day! Supporting senator Alex Diaz de la Portilla in his career to the Miami-Dade County Commission District 5.”
There are also a number of complaints against Carollo being investigated simultaneously by the Miami-Dade Commission on Ethics and Public Trust — which should maybe just open a Carollo division. Miro, we’ve been told, is included in at least one of those complaints.
Read related: We get Joe Carollo in Miami — and all the drama, interest it comes with
But of course he is. In fact, people for the most part think of him as Carollo’s go-to guy for all the dark stuff. Miro practically ran Carollo’s campaign. Blogger Al Crespo called Miro the commissioner’s “enforcer,” and here they are, seemingly buds, on the night of Carollo’s victory a little more than six months ago.
“Since Carollo has been Commissioner, Miro was the guy who it was claimed would show up at your door if you pissed Joe off, like he was alleged to have done a couple months ago when he showed up with cops and tried to get the owners of that illegal sandwich shop on SW 8th Street arrested,” Crespo wrote when he announced the firing in his blog this week.
One can’t help but wonder if that’s one of the ethics complaints.
So what made Miro, who has been carrying Carollo’s mud for years, suddenly turn around and turn him in to the SAO?
Well, dicen las malas lenguas that it was because he supported Zoraida Barreiro, like Carollo was reportedly going to do until he pulled the old switcheroo again at the last minute. Barreiro — who made it into the runoff June 19 against Eileen Higgins — had endorsed Carollo against Leon after she came in third in the Miami race. And Crazy Joe was expected to return the favor. Only he apparently changed his mind. At least he did it this time before Barreiro called a press conference about his endorsement.
But it might also be because it is one thing to take some uniforms with you to flex some muscle with a sandwich guy that has no permits but refuses to close shop, and it is quite another to steal public dollars for political favors. And the line has to be drawn somewhere.

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There’s a reason why both Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez and Commission Chairman Esteban Bovo — who hopes to be the next county mayor — have endorsed Zoraida Barreiro in the District 5 commission race: They want to stay in control.
They like things the way they are.
Barreiro would be a known entity, a Republican on an increasingly partisan board who would likely vote along the same “party” lines as her husband, former Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, whose abrupt resignation to run for Congress set the stage for this shotgun wedding election to benefit his beloved. Who said romance is dead?
Zory Barreiro is of the dynasty, by marriage not blood, but still a newby to the dais and would likely take to King Carlos and Bobo Bovo like a baby to a, um, a blanket. They would be her mentors. And she would definitely be a vote in their pocket, whether she knows it or not.
Read related: Eileen Higgins makes history leading special county race against the odds
Eileen Higgins, on the other hand, could upset the apple cart. Higgins is la gringa activist, a really newby who, despite living here only a few years, actually won the first round, topping both Barreiro and former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla with 35% of the vote (Barreiro got 33% but is still considered the front runner). Higgins would likely follow the likes of Daniella Levine Cava and Barbara Jordan, other Democrats on the dais.
And with Higgins, the Dems would have a majority on a body that has been evenly split. Let’s count ’em: Jordan, Jean Monestime, Audrey Edmonson, Sally Heyman, Levine Cava, Dennis Moss. That’s six. Commissioner Xavier Suarez is an NPA like yours truly. Bruno and the other five that are left — Rebeca Sosa, Javier Souto, Joe Martinez, Jose “Pepe” Diaz and Bovo are all Republican. The even split stays if Barreiro wins the runoff. But if Higgins wins? It could really change the dynamics on that dais.
Translation: Gimenez might lose control.
A perfect example is the living wage ordinance that passed purely on partisan lines and that the mayor later vetoed. A potential commission override would need a super majority so one more person than the 7 who passed it. If that vote were to happen with Barreiro on the dais, she would vote no. If Higgins was up there, that’s a yes vote right there.
Of course, this dynamic may not translate to every issue. After all, Daniella finds herself voting solita all the time — against the mega mall, against expanding the Kendall charter school, against the FP&L Turkey Point water reuse deal, against the CDMP case converting industrial zoned land to residential in West Kendall, against loosening the Sunshine Laws.
And how many votes have been 7-6 that might have gone the other way with someone like Higgins on the board?
Levine Cava, who is often the dissenting vote on items and the lone, if soft, voice of reason, has endorsed Higgins, naturally.
Read related: Dems push full court press for Eileen Higgins in District 5 county race
“I think she sees eye to eye with me on environmental issues, on labor issues on transit issues.”
And on sanctuary cities. Gun control. Gender neutral bathrooms.
Higgins might change the conversation on these social issues and her presence might just give some of the other Democrats (yes, Ladra is talking to you Sally) the courage to be themselves.

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Yes, we already know that former State Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla is the biggest loser in the special shotgun wedding election in Miami-Dade District 5, getting shut out of the runoff by Zoraida Barreiro and Eileen Higgins — his third loss in a hisif.
Fifth, if you count his brothers’ defeats. 
And, yes, Higgins is the big winner, with an upset that surprised even herself.
But, as usual, there are other winners and losers from the race. And they are:
WINNERS
Miami-Dade Democrats — Local Democrat leadership put a lot of effort and money into the non partisan race backing Higgins, the sole Democrat against three Republicans (Carlos Garin doesn’t count with only 5%). The party paid the pricy consultant’s bills. Even Tallahassee Mayor and gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum reached out, tweeting to voters during early voting that they should support Higgins. And it is the third special election win for them in six months, with Sen. Annette Taddeo beating former State Rep. Jose Felix “Pepi” Diaz and lobbyist Javier Fernandez beating the much better financed Andrew Vargas, a proxy for former State Rep. and U.S. Ambassador Carlos Trujillo. No doubt Juan Cuba is in a good mood these days.
Women — No matter what happens in the runoff June 19, there will be another woman on the commission, and that is a good thing because it will make the dais more balanced. While there can never me an even split among 13 board members, it was 8 men and 5 women when Bruno Barreiro, who resigned from this seat to run for Congress, was on the dais. No matter what, it is now 7-6.
Christian Ulvert — After helping Annette Taddeo this pretty much solidifies Ulvert as the go-to golden boy for special elections. But that is not all he’s done. He has also now beat a Diaz de la Portilla three times: First in 2012 with Jose Javier Rodriguez against ADLP in House District 112, then with J-Rod again against Miguel Diaz de la Portilla for the Senate in 2016. And now this. Eh, just another notch in his belt. Over the past decade or so, Ulvert has built an operation to help Democrats get elected. There was State Rep. Luis Garcia, J-Rod (three times), Miami-Dade Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava, former Miami Beach mayor and gubernatorial candidate Philip Levine. Watch: The Democrats are going to name a sandwich after him. And then he’ll be even more cocky.
Voters — After weeks of terrible negative attacks against the two dynasty candidates — even Higgins got a swing or two in there — voters will likely get a reprieve. Not from all the negative mail. Just from the really ugly kind. There might still be some reference to the Bruno love for the Marlins deal or overly dramatic concern over Higgins’ lack of history here. But it’s not going to be evil. En otras palabras, now that Alex is gone, nobody will be calling anyone a communist whore.
LOSERS
“Crazy” Joe Carollo — The Miami Commissioner endorsed ADLP and even went with him to distribute pastelitos and swag at campaign events in elderly housing and comedores.  It could have been a tit tat thing, since ADLP helped Carollo win his commission seat last year. Or it could just be that the Dean has burned so many bridges and friends that he is forced to scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Carlos “Mr. Giveaway” Gimenez — The Miami-Dade mayor endorsed ADLP and his family — and principally his son CJ Gimenez, the mediocre but well-connected lobbyist — reportedly worked on the senator’s campaign. Now they can go back to hanging out in Joe Carollo’s office.
Did I forget someone? In either column? Please feel free to share in a comment below any winners and/or losers that escaped Ladra’s attention.
Until the next election — which happens to be in 27 days.

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In a last ditch effort to motivate Democrat voters in the Miami-Dade Commission District 5 race, a number of state and local Dems are doing a full press court for Eileen Higgins, the sole blue candidate among three Republicans in this non partisan race.
“My friend Eileen Higgins has the commitment, smarts and energy to be a wonderful public servant,” posted state Rep. Nicholas Duran. “#EarlyVoting runs through the weekend and #ElectionDay is May 22nd #GoVote @eyesonmyworld has my support.”
Miami Commissioner Ken Russell and congressional candidate Matt Haggman are among the many Dems that are trying to get blue voters engaged.
All the way from Tallahassee, Mayor Andrew Gillum took a break from his gubernatorial campaign to talk with Higgins and then encourage his followers to support her: “Had a great chat with @eyesonmyworld earlier today and we need to help get her across the finish line THIS coming Tuesday 5/22 in Miami-Dade,” Gillum tweeted Saturday, referring to Higgins’ and her twitter handle. “She’s the progressive leader we  need. Get involved & make a plan here,” he went on, posting the website and #BlueWave2018.
A day earlier, Miami-Dade Democrats tweeted “Of 200K+ residents, 1K have voted early in person and 6K have voted by mail. This special election will come down to turn out. Last chance, remind your friends in District 5 to vote Eileen Higgins @eyesonmyworld this weekend, before election day.”
Even though this is a non partisan race, Democrats have an opportunity here to advance someone new via the very motivated anti-Trump voters and, possibly, change the balance of power on the county commission. They are taking this very seriously. At both the Democratic primary debates for the Congressional District 27 race, Democrats have told the audience to vote for Higgins and to tell their friends to, too.
The recent tweets take that push to a new level. And maybe it pushed  more people out to vote on the last day of early voting Sunday, with 252 people casting ballots at the four libraries, only two fewer than on the first day. But, seeing as how it is also the last day, maybe the tweets did nada. It’s not direct voter contact. Higgins needs a robocall. Or two.
The total for early voting, which generally tends to lean Democrat, is 1,698. That compares to 7, 029 absentee ballots, which generally tend to lean Republican, that were returned as of Friday. Ladra expects at least another 500 between now and Tuesday.
Higgins is the sole Democrat running against two Republicans to replace former Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, who resigned abruptly last month to run for Congress. Well, three, but nobody counts radio host Carlos Gorin. Not when you have former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla and Zoraida Barreiro, the commissioner’s wife, sucking all the air out of the room.
How come we don’t see Marco Rubio tweeting for his old House mate? Or Ileana tweeting for Zoraida? Feels like the Republican establishment is just not as gung-ho about their prospects in this race.

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