Ya era hora. It looks like this might be Manolo Reyes‘ year after all. Every poll says so.

Even Ralph Rosado‘s poll.

These two guys have been running for Miami City Commission forever — or at least since when they both thought they would be on the 2013 ballot for District 4 before Commissioner Francis Suarez‘s first-time mayoral dreams crashed and burned after a series of campaign gaffes. Reyes a little longer even since the perennial candidate has six other commission races under his belt. Six!

People in the district — which is from Silver Bluff to Flagami, on the border with Coral Gables — are used to seeing Reyes on the ballot. He’s been running since 1985 and Ronald Reagan was in the White House — coming real close in 2009 when he lost by about 300 votes to Suarez. It’s no wonder that he’s leading all the polls. He’s practically an incumbent.

Okay, technically, Rosado has a 4 point lead in his poll. But that is within the margin of error and the poll was a push poll. If that is the only way that Rosado can get from 30 points below to a few points above, Ladra is going to go ahead and give that win to Reyes, too.

Read related story: Beleaguered Francis Suarez drops out of Miami mayoral race

The first poll we heard of was commissioned in February by former Miami City Commissioner Marc Sarnoff, who wants to stay relevant as a lobbyist and may run for county commissioner or something else in the future. He showed it off to donors as he sought contributions for Reyes’ campaign. Someone sneaked me photos of the pages. He was up by 35 points. Only 9 percent of the 300 voters surveyed knew who he was.

That was early in the campaign. But a Mason-Dixon poll conducted in late June for the city of Miami’s firefighters union showed Reyes holding those 30 points months later.

Commissioner Suarez has polled twice, and while he wouldn’t disclose the results with Ladra — the new mayor is being diplomatic so as to not rock the boat — several other people who he has apparently shared them with reported that Reyes has kept the comfortable double digit lead he had from the first poll to the second.

And then we have Rosado’s poll, done for $9,500 in August. Rosado claims in an email blast that he has the lead, and links to a Miami Herald story that says the two men are neck and neck. But the numbers weren’t disclosed in the story and three different sources told Ladra that Reyes was still up by four points, which is within the margin of error (hence the “neck and neck” description).

But it is important to note, however, that the point spread is within the margin of error. And that it was a push poll, with questions designed to identify issues and character traits that would turn voters off from Reyes. “Would you still vote for him if you knew he was a career politician,” type of question. Perhaps Reyes would have held on to his lead if the questions were not pushing voters away.

Rosado knows this. Despite his bravado on his email blast, he has started to attack Reyes in a TV spot and mailer that casts the high school economics teacher and former Miami-Dade School Board budget analyst as a career beaurocrat and loser candidate who has run unsuccessfully six times.

It seems desperate, for Rosado, who ran for state rep in 2010 and lost to Michael Bileca, later moving into the city of Miami. Like the best straw to grasp onto is the false security of a 4 point lead in a push poll.

Rosado did not return multiple efforts to reach him. Instead, he texted “my quote for the story” to Ladra: “Our internal numbers tell us that there is a path to victory. I’m very excited by the support my campaign has received in the community.”

Sounds like what they all say.

Heading into the final two weeks before the Nov. 7 election, Reyes — who has been active in the city and on boards for more than two decades — also has the majority of endorsements. He has nods from Mayor Tomas Regalado, Commissioner Willy Gort, former State Rep. Manny Prieguez, West Miami Mayor Eduardo Muhiña and West Miami Commissioner Luciano Suarez as well as the city’s firefighters, solid waste and general employees unions.

“Manolo has served our community his entire life and he is not part of the establishment,” said Freddy Delgado, president of the firefighters’ union. “He has as much experience as an incumbent commissioner, which is good for the citizens and those that serve them.”

Meanwhile, Rosado has the Fraternal Order of Police.

Read related story: Candidate Ralph Rosado exaggerates ‘his’ police initiatives

Oh, wait, Ladra almost forgot. There is a third candidate in the race. But marketing professional Denise Galvez, who made her claim to fame as co-founder of Latinas for Trump, is scoring around 1 or 2 percent on these polls and won’t get more than 5-8 percent on Election Day — and only if she is extremely lucky and snags that women’s vote. Then, just like her orange mentor, she will blame Democrats and everyone else but herself for her loss.

So now that we got that over with, this race is squarely between the two guys. And while there is still more than two weeks for Rosado to gain on Reyes, he may have a hard time doing that if he keeps squandering $10,000 on a push poll here and $5,000 on a billboard there and $3,400 for post-it notes on the Miami Herald — the billboard and post its are seen by thousands of people who don’t vote in his district or, even, the city of Miami. He should concentrate on direct voter contact and is getting bad advice from consultants Al Lorenzo and Fernando Diez. A billboard? Really? He could have sent two mailers with that money. And digital media is also sort of a waste in a district where about half the voters are over 55.

Rosado is spending his money faster and has less cash on hand than Reyes by about $16,000.

All this — the polls, the money, the community support — indicates that it’s Reyes’ turn. Al fin!

Miami City Commission candidate Ralph Rosado sounds like an incumbent on the most recent mailer that arrived in some Miami voters’ homes Wednesday.

“Let’s talk about crime and it’s prevention,” it says on the front.

“I have worked to guarantee that our police department can count on the sufficient number of police officers to keep us protected and also prevent crimes before they are committed. That is why I spearheaded an initiative to hire 100 new officers,” it says on the back.

That may come as a surprise to the mayor and city commissioners.

“It’s a lie,” said Mayor Tomas Regalado.

“I know he is running and he wants to be elected but you can’t get into elected office through fraud. That’s an injustice to the voters,” Regalado said. “It’s also an insult to the administration and the commission who worked hard and had to make many hard decisions to get to this point,” the mayor told Ladra, adding that they are at more than 180 additional officers in the past two years.

Of course, Regalado is supporting another candidate in the District 4 race: Manolo Reyes, an economics teacher who used to work in the city’s and the Miami-Dade School Board’s budget offices. There are a couple of other candidates who have showed an intention to run for the seat vacated by Commissioner Francis Suarez‘s mayoral bid, but, so far anyway, this is really a contest between Rosado and Reyes, who is a perennial candidate — but at least he doesn’t jump from seat to seat (Rosado also ran for state rep) and exaggerate his laurels.

Last summer’s graduating Miami Police cadets

Because Rosado’s role in the police staffing increase was basically going to a budget hearing a couple of Septembers ago and urging the commission to hire more police officers. That’s it. He was the first of two speakers on that item. The second was pollster and radio show host (until last week) Fernand Amandi, whose home had been burglarized. It’s a  little disingenuous then to send a mailer where he basically takes credit — “spearheading” the initiative and all.

“I am not a commissioner and I have no power over the police department. But heck yeah, I was there for 11 hours and I met with people for days prior and I did the research,” Rosado told Ladra.

“Can I say only because I spoke did it happen? I can’t say that,” he admitted. “But if nobody brought it up, maybe it wouldn’t have happened.”

Really? Well then, I say don’t run for office. Just go to every meeting and speak on the issues we need action on. Because, most likely, the new hires would have happened anyway. The shortage had reached a boiling point. And Amandi spoke, too. Maybe it was his words that moved Commissioner Marc Sarnoff to make the motion.

In his email, Rosado also said that he “implemented a program that uses crime data with the goal of trying to prevent crimes before they happen and concentrate police work in the most dangerous areas. We can make our neighborhoods safer and I, as your future City Commissioner, will work harder than anyone to guarantee that we do.”

And that’s at least a little more truthful. But not entirely.

What he did was bring the FIT Zone program used in East Palo Alto, California, to the attention of the city commission, complete with a Power Point presentation on July 14 last year. The program takes data from the ShotSpotter gunshot detection system put in place in 2014 and finds public spaces near hot spots — a time and area where there is consistently a flurry of firearm activity — to then program fitness activities, targetting at risk kids and the people in the surrounding homes. Miami’s pilot program is on Monday nights with a basketball league and other activities at Overtown’s Reeves Park and it’s a huge success, Commissioner Suarez said.

“He did come up with the idea and the results have been incredible,” Suarez said. “He did discover it. He did study it, flying to Palo Alto to see how it worked there. And he convinced me to execute it here.”

So, why didn’t Rosado send a mail piece just on that? Why not be honest and include more details about the lives the program could be changing, which would be more powerful? Oh, wait, I know. Because Reeves Park is not in District 4. So it’s better to be vague. I would imagine that voters in District 4 who get this mailer could logically think the program benefits “our neighborhoods.” It doesn’t. And it won’t anytime soon. According to Commissioner Suarez, the next two hotspots under consideration for an expansion of the program are in Liberty City.

Kudos to Baby X because he represents the whole city and is not provincial. And kudos to Ralph for going out of his way to bring us FIT Zone.

But it doesn’t make it okay to exaggerate or misrepresent his role on campaign materials, which is what Rosado did with the two crime-fighting claims in this mailer. One’s an outright lie and the other is a half-truth.

After having been part of the 2016 presidential campaign, Latinas For Trump co-founder Denise Galvez, a Miami mom with a boutique marketing shop, wants to run for Miami city commission.

Galvez filed paperwork earlier this month indicating she intends to run as Denise Galvez Turros in District 4, which is the seat Commissioner Francis Suarez will have to resign from when he qualifies for the mayor’s race this summer.

You might recognize her from TV. Galvez did a lot of television and radio interviews last year as a Latina Trump supporter. And while that may be a liability in some 2017 and 2018 electiions, this city district — which includes Shenandoah, Silver Bluff, Coral Gate and Flagami — might not be one of those. Trumpistas might do well here among the Cuban super Republicans.

Read related story: Local Latinas come out for Trump with Brickell event

“I was being asked to consider other positions in state office by people in the party,” Galvez said. “But I wasn’t going to do that to my kids and my family.”

Meanwhile, she was attending local events and hearing from local candidates.

“There was nobody I could see myself backing,” she said.

Someone suggested she stop looking for somebody else and throw her own hat into the ring. The timing made sense for her, to start campaigning over the summer. “I started to make calls and talk to people and the more excited they got, the more exicted I got. ‘This is your backyard,’ they would tell me.”

It’s a rare opportunity as an open seat, even though Galvez will face at least three other hopefuls so far: perennial candidates Ralph Rosado and Manolo Reyes as well as wannabe political consultant Tony Diaz. The one that concerned her the most was Rosado. The two are friendly. She has supported his causes and both went to City Hall to protest conditions at Douglas Park.

“I’ve known Ralph for a long time and have been a friend. I’ve helped him with other things,” Galvez said. But she feels he is out of touch with the district’s needs, campaigning on economic development and The Underline project. She says crime is the number one issue of concern to the people in her Shenandoah neighborhood. Her car has been broken into. Her husband, reknown musician and popular Miami High School Band Director Juan Turros, had his stolen.

Read related story: Patient Ralph Rosado re-launches Miami Commission bid

Rosado and Reyes (Diaz hasn’t raised a dime) may have had a head start with fundraising and canvassing, but let Ladra warn you know, Denise is a force to be reckoned with. She is a workaholic with boundless energy who is not afraid to say what she means and mean what she says, even when she is dead wrong, which she is often on the Trump stuff. And I suspect she will be able to raise money from some party people who may feel like they owe her one. Because they do.

She doesn’t need much. She is a marketing guru who will do a lot of her own media and has the name recognition that a year of TV appearances gets ya. But it will be important to have some.

Rosado has raised a whopping $436,790, according to the last finance report filed this month and counting through April 30. But he’s been fundraising for exactly four years, since April of 2013. he has also spent $165,998 of that so he has about $270,790 left, according to the last report as of April 30. Reyes has raised $140,940 and spent $82,900, leaving less than $60K in hand. But he’s got more momentum this time around.

Ladra can see where a smart, well-spoken woman might find an opportunity among these three Hispanic men.

Normally, this would be a good thing. It would be nice to have some estrogen up on that dais. And she will definitely use that sole female candidate thing to her advantage.

But Denise’s blind defense of everything Trump does causes me to worry about a future with “alternative facts” in Miami city government.

So I guess Pedro Diaz is going to have to do another online poll.

No sooner had Ladra hit publish on the screen to post the story about the growing possibilities in the District 3 Miami Commission race — and the new threat of Alex Diaz de la Portilla spoiling it for everybody else — El Nuevo Herald breaks the news that there is yet another family dynasty member looking at the seat.

No, not Tommy Regalado, son of Miami Mayor Tomas Regalado. We had him. No, not Zoraida Barreiro, wife of Miami-Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro. We had her.

Add to this bowl of fruit loops one Crazy Joe Carollo, former city manager in Doral under former Mayor Luigi Boria, who fired him publicly and loudly during a city council meeting. Joe Carollo was also once the mayor and a commissioner in the city and, in fact, in the very seat his brother, Commissioner Frank Carollo, is vacating due to term limits.

Read related story: Joe Carollo goes off the reservation, naming names in Doral

“After so much time out of office, I have decided that I will aspire as commissioner of Miami, in the seat where I started, which includes Little Havana, and that was where the community initially elected me,” Carollo was quoted as saying in Spanish, speaking to El Nuevo Herald. “I would like to be able to return to that seat to return to Miami the opportunity it gave me to serve the community and make sure it continues on the path to adequate growth and protect its neighborhoods.”

Carollo said he was not using the commission seat as a stepping stone to the mayor’s office and said he has more experience by far of any other declared candidate. His key issue will be public safety, referencing the many youth gun fatalities that have plagued Miami’s neighborhoods for the last few years.

Does this mean Frank is not gonna run for mayor? After all, people are not going to elect two Carollo brothers to the same body of government? Or would they?

Or is this Crazy Joe’s way of trying to derail his brother’s dreams? Dicen las malas lenguas that there’s bad blood there.

In either case, it is an interesting twist in an already fascinating race that promises to get even more exciting. I mean, if Dean DLP was only flirting with the idea before, he’s going to be downright giddy with the challenge now. This would be an epic battle more worth his time. Also, he feels a responsibility to the people of Little Havana, his core constituents (those that got his Christmas card over the holiday). He has to run to protect them from Crazy Joe.

But Ladra thinks Miami-Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro will urge his wife to withdraw from the race in order to avoid the attacks that would no doubt come.

Read related story: Doral update — Councilwoman calls cops on Joe Carollo

Because Crazy Joe has no boundaries.

This is a guy who got into a fistfight with a fellow elected — at the dais. This is a guy who fired his police chief after the latter neglected to tell him that federal agents were swooping in on Elian Gonzalez’s family. This is a guy who threw a tea cup at his wife and hit her in the head — and got arrested for it.

During his time in Doral, then Councilwoman Sandra Ruiz called the police on him after, she said, he harassed her and her intern. After he was fired in a meeting where he shot insults back at the mayor, Carollo wouldn’t shut up about alleged bribery and other conspiracies and corruption going on in Doral — but he offered little proof.

At times his drive and advocacy are admirable: Ladra loved it when he came out against maquinitas and absentee ballot fraud. Other times, he is kinda creepy: Always speaking in that low, booming monotone, without much inflection ever, he seldom smiles (this photo, left, is a rarity), probably because he is constantly worried about communist and Chavista conspiracies against him and our community.

Read related story: Why is Joe Carollo on Mayor Gimenez camp’s payroll?

Most recently, Carollo got paid $144,000 by the Common Sense Now PAC to work on the re-election campaign for Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez. It’s an obscene amount by any standards. He was paid $6,000 a month for 166 months starting in March of 2015, then $8,000 a month in July and August and then $36,000 in the month of October — in four payments in 17 days. The only reason ever stated is “consulting.”

Please notice that the months that payments exceeded $6,000 is the time when the absentee ballots went out.

But nobody has any idea what Carollo did for Gimenez. And Carollo, apparently, ain’t keen on answering the question.

Let’s see how that plays now in his own campaign. And Ladra can’t help but wonder who his other clients are.

Stay tuned, folks. This is going to be an interesting race.