Former State Rep. Jose Felix “Pepi” Diaz turned a 30-plus point deficit in early polls into a 32-point lead Tuesday when he won the special election for Senate District 40, beating former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla by a whopping 58 to 26 percent.

Someone tell Ladra again how negative campaigns don’t work. Or how money doesn’t matter.

Dean DLP, who must be in Europe already, came into the #thanksFrank race — scheduled after Frank Artiles was forced to resign on the heels of some public racist and sexist comments — with high name recognition that gave him a lead in his internal poll and a state GOP poll, too. But not all name reccognition is equal. Some of it is negative. Some of the positive name ID is soft, meaning it can be easily peeled away with a negative campaign of more than $2 million — what Ladra suspects is a record for a primary (more on that later) — that hit Diaz de la Portilla with near daily mailers on not just on his voting and campaign record but his messy personal life.

In other words, people figured out it wasn’t big brother Miguel. The elder and more diplomatic DLP represented the area as a county commissioner and is much more popular than the meaner middle brother any day of the week. He didn’t even beat third place finisher Lorenzo Palomares, who got 17%, by double digits.

Even though Alex DLP loaned himself close to $443,500 — $393,500 in the last month and nobody knows where he gets that kind of money — it was too little, too late. Ditto for his short, last-minute, Spanish-language TV commercial casting Diaz as a lobbyist pushing the soccer stadium that was seen in this household exactly once. By then, Alex already had lost in the absentee ballots, even with expert AB fraudster and former Miami Commissioner Humberto Hernandez working on his team, according to the latest campaign report (more on that later).

Perennial candidate Annette Taddeo, who finally won her first race Tuesday — and how! Trouncing former State. Rep. Ana Rivas Logan with 71% of the vote — isn’t making the same mistake. Or her supporters aren’t, anyway. The Florida Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has already been hitting Diaz with mailers to independent NPA voters casting him as a lobbyist who represents special interests in Tallahassee. It is smart to define him early as a lobbyist. Now Diaz has to spend time, and money, fighting that.

And he will. While Diaz seems to have spent his whole $2 million nut already, he knows where to get more. And the GOP will also spend its dollars to keep this seat from going blue again after winning it this past November. Taddeo, who almost physically cried to Michael Putney about the mailers that attacked how she invested her daughter’s trust fund (cue to roll your eyes) is going to have to get thicker skin. Because that is child’s play compared to what is coming. For someone as experienced in running as she is, Taddeo’s never been in a race like this.

Preparate, mujer! Her psychologisst husband may have to squeeze in a session or two for her.

She also has to raise more money than she ever has. She was able to win the primary with $120,000, between her campaign account and her Fight Back Florida political action committee combined. That was more than Rivas Logan, who maybe will have spent $15,000 of her own campaign money by the time the final reports are in. Rivas Logan did get the help from the Floridians for Accountability PAC that spent about $200,000 in the last two months, which we can guess was mostly on this race and mostly on negative attacks against Rivas Logan.

Maybe negative attacks only work when they are million dollar negative attacks.

Taddeo and Democrats are going to have to step their fundraising up if they expect to compete in the general. While the district is pretty evenly split, and was represented by Democrat former Sen. Dwight Bullard and his family for years before Artiles beat him — in, yep, a negative campaign last year — the numbers from the primary show that more Republicans voted (13,293) than Democrats (10,042) in this special election, a trend that is likely to follow into the general. Taddeo is going to need to keep her cool, raise more cash and attract more than the just the super angry Democrats to win on Sept. 26.

That’s a tall order.

Read related story: Both Democrats in SD40 race are compared to Donald Trump

And don’t expect any help from Rivas Logan, who lost with an abysmal 29% (which is still better than DLP) in a race that nobody cared much about except for the really angry Dems who remember Rivas Logan as a Republican, even before Taddeo’s PAC started attacking her as a turncoat. Which was pretty funny considering Taddeo ran for Lt. Gov. only last year with Mr. King Turncoat Charlie Crist.

Taddeo did not return calls and texts to her cellphone. But a statement she issued sounds like she is far too encouraged by the blowout in the primary, which she should not take as a sign that this will be easy.

“Our campaign is ready to take our people powered message to every voter in our district so we can bring change to Tallahassee. It’s time our community rejects the special interests and their lobbyist, Jose Felix Diaz and elect a champion who will fight for our public schools, take on traffic gridlock and enhance our healthcare system. With tonight’s decisive victory, we can, and will, send a loud message in September that the politics of division coming from President Trump and Washington, D.C. will not be tolerated in South Florida. Together, we will make history by electing the first Hispanic Democratic woman to the Florida Senate and a champion for our families.”

Rivas Logan could have been that, too. But she couldn”t even motivate the 5,002 people who voted for her in last August’s primary — where she came in second without campaigning — to vote in this race, maybe it’s best that she hang up her spurs.

“Right now, I’m going on vacation,” Rivas Logan told Ladra Tuesday night, shortly after calling and texting Taddeo (and getting no response). “I wish her well,” she said, adding that she was retiring this fall as a school teacher and retiring from politics altogether. She won’t even go on TV anymore, she said.

“It was my last race. I had nothing to lose. I’m going to retire and travel.”

She also said she was a bit relieved she did not have to face Pepi Diaz again, after he attacked her in 2012 when they were drawn into the same House seat through redistricting.

“I do think the seat now will stay in Republican hands,” Rivas Logan added.

Doesn’t sound like an endorsement card to Ladra.

Some voters in Senate District 40 got a mail piece this week that attacks former State Rep. Jose Felix “Pepi” Diaz for being a lobbyist. But it wasn’t any of his opponents in the GOP primary who put the piece out. It was the Democrats.

The mailer is paid for by the Florida Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and says that “Dirty Diaz” is a “superhero for special interests, a villain to Miami families.” The front has a cartoon character in a suit or buglar eye mask — legislator by day, lobbyist by night — and while its not a Bitstrip, the character looks a little like Pepi Diaz alright. Down to the facial hair and the smirk.

“Don’t expect Dirty Diaz to represnt us in the Senate. His lobbying clients pay much more,” it says, adding that he voted to raise property taxes and increase property insurance costs.

But this may not be just bad news for Pepi Diaz. This mailer could be bad news for former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla and constitutional attorney Lorenzo Palomares, who is likely to win the bronze, because it could mean the Dems think Diaz is going to win the primary. DLP might tell you that they’re hedging their bets, since he has already been hit with so much negativity.

But why waste the money if there’s a chance DLP wins? Why not wait until after the primary? Why not put everything together and have it ready to pull the trigger on Wednesday next week?

Unless… hmm, could it be they are trying to help DLP because he’s an easier target in the general? Ladra thinks that Diaz is a much tougher challenge in the general, principally because of the amount of money he has and has shown to be able to raise, but also because DLP is less moderate than Pepi Diaz, who — especially with his mother and wife being public school teachers — will be more easily able to get NPAs and peel some Democrat votes in the general than the Dean, especially when he’s been channeling The Donald.

So could this be Senate Democrats actually being smart?

Sure, the mailer was sent to an NPA. But it was sent to an NPA with a super voter Republican in the house. You don’t think they know that?

It was bound to happen. In fact, one might wonder what took Annette Taddeo so long to bring up Ana Rivas Logan‘s Republican stripes.

It happened this week, when Democrat voters received a mailer where Rivas Logan is pictured between President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who she only served in Tallahassee with for a year. “A history of voting Republican,” it says on one side. And that’s true. Because Rivas Logan only became a Democrat after she was beaten out of office by another candidate in the SD40 race, former State Rep. Jose Felix “Pepi” Diaz (who happens to be running in the GOP primary).

The year was 2012 when Rivas Logan and Diaz were thrown into the same district via redistricting. Neither one would move out. The party backed Diaz, who went on a negative attack questioning her Cuban roots and calling her an unfit mother. One piece linked Rivas Logan, a former Miami-Dade School Board member to then Superintendent Rudy Crew, who was unpopular and hated by Cubans, in particular, for allowing communist books in the curriculum. Rivas Logan switched parties shortly after, citing the anti-immigrant sentiment in the GOP but everybody knows she felt abandoned by the party, even stabbed in the back.

Read related story: Outing non-Cubans in Miami politics

In this primary, it’s all about the fact that she was even in that contest.

“Once Republican, always Republican,” the mailer says. Well, wait a minute. Wouldn’t that also apply to former Gov. Charlie Crist, who ran as a Democrat with Taddeo as his running mate?

The mailer points out that Rivas Logan is still getting “Republican money” because 90% of her money is from the Lewin family of Davie, who own 411-Pain and other healthcare interests and are registered red. Of course, 90% equals $10,000 of the $12,925 she’s collected (and it’s actually more if you consider that she loaned herself $2,500), so big deal?

The piece is paid for by Fight Back Florida, Taddeo’s PAC, which is chaired by Raul Martinez Jr., who used to be former Congressman Joe Garcia‘s chief of staff and who Taddeo ran against in the congressional primary last year. The PAC has reported raising $37,500 since May, including a $10,000 contribution last month from Diario Las Americas Multimedia.

But the piece seems late, landing more than two weeks after absentee ballots went out, and short, coming on the heels of not one but at least three anti Taddeo pieces put out by Floridians for Accountability, an election communications organization that has been inactive since 2008 and didn’t report any activity last month. One of the pieces also tries to compare Taddeo to Trump repeating false allegations from 2014 that she was under IRS investigation for not paying her employees. That simply isn’t true and the complaint that was filed was done so for political purposes. Two other hit pieces targeted where Taddeo invests her money — which includes Big Oil, Big Tobacco and Big Pharma, none of which are Dem darlings.

Read related story: Dade’s newest Dem, Ana Rivas Logan, hails First Lady

Ladra still thinks Democrats will have to hold their nose and vote for Rivas Logan if they want to get that seat back. They should have never lost it to former Sen. Frank Artiles, who was forced to resign in April after he was caught making racist remarks to black legislators in public. But their best chance to get it back is Rivas Logan, who came in second in the primary to former Sen. Dwight Bullard without spending very much or campaigning really. Because the very Republican background that is a liability for Rivas Logan in this primary is what is going to make her a better candidate for the general against Diaz, for a rematch, or former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla, who would enter the general limping from the full frontal attack campaign in his primary that has included allegations of violent outburstss and improriety with women. 

Or maybe all this drama in both primaries gives the NPA candidate, Christian “He-Man” Schlearth, an advantage.

¡Que arroz con mango!

The Senate 40 race has become a total telenovela in the final weeks, with a five-year old, out-of-state misdemeanor arrest record surfacing at the last minute, implicating something selatious and improper between former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla and the daughter-in-law of the county mayor, who were taken into custody together in a Boston non-smoking hotel room where they were chainsmoking, despite repeated warnings, on a late rainy night.

Shortly after the 2012 incident was first reported in the Herald last week, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez withdrew his support for The Dean’s opponent, former State Rep. Jose Felix “Pepi” Diaz. Gimenez will not be the guest star, after all, at a fundraiser planned next week at the Biltmore Hotel (which Ladra assumes will be cancelled), citing the negativity of the Diaz campaign.

“He believes that the tone of that particular race has been unnecessarily negative and will not be endorsing any candidate in that primary,” said Gimenez spokesman Michael Hernandez, because, apparently, the mayor’s political life and endorsments is part of Mike’s job now, too.

Also, btw, the race has been unneccessarily negative for weeks and it wasn’t until his family’s dirty laundry started to come out that G found the campaign offensive.

But what if the information didn’t come from Pepi Diaz? What if it came from ADLP himself? Wait for it… wait for it. I know! Brilliant, right? The guy’s a genius!

If Pepi Diaz — or any of the Tallahasee ghosts who are supporting him (more on that later) — wanted to expose this embarassing episode (forget the girl, the behavior is atrocious enough), they would have spilled the Boston beans before the absentee ballots went out on June 27 . Not weeks after people have already voted.

And ADLP isn’t hurt by this. He is not the married one. In the eyes of most Cuban-American Westhchester super voters, he has done nothing wrong. Heck, some of them will want to high-five him. It may pain Ladra to say it, but this doesn’t resonate. Sure, ella es una sucia, azqueroza. But she is not running for office. And him? He’s a charming, womanizing, fast-talker who has women throw themselves at him all the time. El no tiene la culpa. He’s not to blame, they’ll say.

Ahora, el sinverquenza que saco los trapos? Yep, this actually hurts Pepi, who is seen as the desperate villain who besmirched a woman’s name to get elected and, to boot, won’t have the extra dollars that he expected to have for the end game from a Gimenez anointment. Notice that the news of the arrests came only a couple days after the announcement that the mayor — who should have stayed out of the primary out of loyalty to ADLP for his 2011 win — would headline the Biltmore event for Pepi.

This must have irked The Dean. After all he’s done for that cardboard box! It’s not completely unreasonable to think that he put this arrest info out himself to get the cancellation and also a little bit of free publicity as the smeared former Senator trying to defend “the mother of two young girls,” as he said in the Herald story. Another thing: Tania Cruz, the daughter-in-law in question (and this is the good one), gave a long and impassioned statement as well — which there is no way she would have done without ADLP’s consent. In fact, Ladra suspects he wrote her comments.

Then, boom! Gimenez canceled on Diaz.

Then, boom, boom! His lobbyist son and the presumed tarrudo, CJ Gimenez, also lashed out at Pepi Diaz on Facebook Thursday.

“For those of you that did not receive the latest email from the Jose Felix Diaz campaign due to limited circulation, my father, Mayor Carlos Gimenez is no longer involved with the Rep. Jose Felix Diaz event at the Biltmore on July 18th citing the negative tone of the campaign,” wrote CJ, who celebrated an anniversary with his wife only weeks ago.

“My position (me, CJ Gimenez, not the Mayor) is that I am utterly disgusted with the actions of the Jose Felix Diaz campaign and their pathetic personal attacks against me and my family. So I ask you, do not reward Jose Felix Diaz with your support. Please share this post with your friends and family! I thank you!”

Ladra was told that his other sister-in-law (the bad one) also posted something on Facebook about it.

But what if they’re being played by one of the best in the business? Yes, it would be somewhat Machiavellian to have orchestrated this wag the dog scenario right in front of our eyes.

But look who we’re talking about here.

Brilliant!

Two key unions announced Tuesday that they endorsed Annette Taddeo in her bid to replace former Senator Frank Artiles, who was forced to resign in April after he was caught in a racial rant against a black legislator.

The leaders of SEIU Florida and AFSCME Florida both said they were pleased to back Taddeo, who has always had the union endorsements in every single election she has lost and is running for the Democrat nomination against former State Rep. Ana Rivas Logan.

“We have a great opportunity to elect Annette Taddeo who has a proven track record of being a passionate and determined voice for the residents of Senate District 40,” SEIU Florida President Monica Russo, said in a statement. “Annette brings both grace and grit to this crucial race. She is a fighter and a negotiator. Should she win, expect Annette Taddeo to go toe-to-toe with the power structure to fight for the rights of working folks.”

Key words: Should she win. Because what Taddeo really has is a proven track record of losing elections. The SEIU should know that. They endorsed her last year against former Congressman Joe Garcia in that Democratic primary. So did the local AFL-CIO and United Teachers of Dade.

Read related story: Awkward! Annette Taddeo, Joe Garcia face off with polite jabs

“Taddeo’s candidacy has excited members because of her strong understanding of the issues South Floridians face, her plans to tackle income inequality and focus state government on the needs of working people instead of corporate CEOs and her commitment to protecting workplace freedoms,” the statement Tuesday said.

There’s no doubt that this could have an impact in a special election where there is a tiny little turnout projected. Much less than the 20,390 who voted in the district in the August Democratic primary. Combined, the local AFSCME and SEIU chapters represent more than 6,000 workers in Senate District 40 — which could give her an edge, if they all vote for her. The endorsement likely comes with some phone banking and certainly with bodies on election day to hand out palm cards at voting locations.

But, again, Taddeo had all the union endorsements and their people in 2016, and Garcia still beat her 52 to 48 percent.

In what amounts to a political pissing match, the two top contenders in the GOP primary for the Senate seat in District 40 are trying to out-Republican each other.

Former State Rep. Jose Felix “Pepi” Diaz, whose latest mail piece has the word Republican in it six times, has had hit former Senator Alex Diaz de la Portilla with mail pieces and now a TV commercial that basically cast him as a closet liberal and fake conservative. Last week, some residents in Westchester got mailers from Dean DLP that said Diaz had only become a Republican to run for office (he was an NPA until 2007 and ran in 2008).

The piece had a picture of a young Alex with President Ronald Reagan from some 20 de Mayo event in downtown Miami in 1982 or 1983 that he should have, but apparently didn’t, shave for. You know, to drive the point home that Diaz de la Portilla is the real man, er, I mean real Republican here. “From top to bottom,” the mailer says. Couldn’t he say from birth?!?  Alex never toyed around with anything else! Not even in college when he was supposed to have a heart.

In the 8 1/2 X 11 mailer, Dean DLP goes on to berate our local Republicans for not walking in lock step with Trump on everything, saying that he has “the courage to defend our Republican values.

“Alex Diaz de la Portilla started his Republican activism at the early age of 18 as a volunteer for our beloved President Ronald Reagan. Since then, Alex Diaz de la Portilla has supported our Republican presidents without hesitation and with firmness. For this dedication to our Republican values, he was named Republican Senate Majority Leader,” it says, then turns into a super right wing abuelo scolding his grandchildren.

“Alex Diaz de la Portilla is left indignant by the lack of unity among Republicans and the lack of loyalty to our president. He commits to a fight against the liberal press, the leftists Democrats and the Republicans who swim in both waters,” it says.

Ooooooh. How many Republicans swim in both waters? He didn’t name names. That includes Pepi’s. “My opponent only changed to our Republican Party so he could run for office,” it says on the front side. “Mi opponente.”

In fact, DLP never mentions his opponnt. Pepi Diaz, on the other hand, mentions the name Alex Diaz de la Portilla four times and the name Diaz de la Portilla (sans the Alex) one more in a single comparison mailer paid for by his politial action committee, Rebuild Florida.

Like Alex needs the name recognition.

Pepi Diaz also doesn’t mention the word Republican once in that piece. Not in his intro bio piece either, the big one with the picture of the family on the front. Ditto for the “Jobs, jobs, jobs” mailer, where he called himself a “true conservative” — but the addition of the word “Republican” before President Donald Trump would have cost him nothing.

Quien es mas macho? Reagan or Trump?

Now, Republican flag waving is really not that new in a contested primary. It’s just more fun to watch it evolve so quickly in a short election cycle like this one, where people have precious little time to pick their party representative for the general. And so the question becomes more relevant. Quien es mas Republicano?

It sure sounds like “quien es mas macho,” don’t it? Reminded Ladra of the lyrics from that old Laurie Anderson song, Smoke Rings. “Que es mas macho? Pineapple or knife? Lightbulb or schoolbus?”

Quien es mas Republicano? Alex or Pepi? Reagan or Trump?

Alex used the word 13 times in his Reagan mail piece. That may be a record. And a sign.