As many may have expected, newly-minted Jose Javier Rodriguez announced Tuesday that he would run for the congressional seat in District 27 being vacated next year by a retiring U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and immediately became the front runner for the Democrat primary — at least on paper.

But on the streets, Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez might still give him a good run for his — or the party’s — money. And in Obama circles, the name Francisco Cerezo — a Puerto Rican Miami lawyer and onetime Obama surrogate who is son of the first Latin American female federal judge — is being floated around by his friend, political operative Freddy Balsera (who would work on his campaign, of course).

Political observers say Cerezo (read: Balsera) is just using the race to get some name recognition — beause right now it is zero — so he can run for another seat that opens up in the future, maybe one of the domino effect avalanche seats that will open up in the state legislature from this race or the Senate 40 contest. Pedro Diaz, a political consultant who runs Rosen Gonzalez’s campaigns, is convinced this primary race has already been defined, 15 months out, as a two-way contest between his client and Rodriguez, who was a state rep for four years before jumping to the Senate last year and who was being groomed for this position, eventually, before IRL surprised everyone with early retirement and reset the clock.

Read related story: Kristen Rosen Gonzalez to challenge Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

“No other big name is going to jump in now that he’s announced,” Diaz said, adding that maybe that was the senator’s point, to scare everybody off.

But Rosen Gonzalez — who has fought Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine and his political consultant, David “Disgustin’” Custin — is not scared easily. Heck, she’s the only one who was brave enough to announce her intentions before Ileana decided to retire. J-Rod could be called an opportunist.

“He’s a formidable opponent,” Rosen Gonzalez told Ladra Wednesday, “but I’m going to stand my ground.”

“My supporters are my supporters and I don’t think an Ivy league lawyer is what they really want,” the college professor said, referring to J-Rod’s Harvard law degree.

She may be smart to define herself, in contrast, as a single mom and educator. Because there are very few other differences between them.

The two have similar blue positions on immigration reform, minimum wage, climate change and neither has been shy to voice their concerns, so they’re not going to mark much of a difference that way. Both of them are good, but not great, at media. Neither one has to resign to run, so they have nothing to lose and each can use their bully pulpit to promote themselves.

J-Rod may have more legislative experience, but it’s just a tiny bit more. He could also be seen as an ambitious hopper who just became a state senator five minutes ago and is already itching to move up the political ladder. But Rosen Gonzalez, a freshman city commissioner, might also be seen as too ambitious for her own good.

And yes, Rodriguez scored two powerhouse victories when first elected to the House in 2012 (against former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla) and then the Senate last year (against big brother Miguel Diaz de la Portilla), but those big wins have been in presidential years. His win against nobody lobbyist Daniel Diaz Leyva in 2014 was by a much smaller (642-vote) margin. And Ladra dares say both DLPs could have worked a little harder, or nicer.

Read related story: Jose Javier Rodriguez hangs on despite Danny Boy’s dough

Rosen Gonzalez, like J-Rod, is a tireless campaigner. So let’s say they split the Hispanic vote. Rosen Gonzalez will likely get the Jewish vote and the preservationists vote and also the female vote. Because it looks like she will be the only Democrat woman in a primary against four or five men. DUI driver Scott Fuhrman, who ran but lost against Ros-Lehtinen last year, and UM academic advisor Michael Hepburn have both filed for ,the seat. Add to that Rodriguez, Ceruzo and, maybe, Matt Haggman, Miami program director for the Knight Foundation.

Since there are only 105 female members of Congress — or about one to every five men — Rosen Gonzalez hopes voters might hate to lose one of those, and the first seat won by a Hispanic woman, to a man. At least that’s what she’s counting on.

“There’s going to be five men in the race and me,” she said. “I can live with those odds.”

Daisy Baez vs. Ana Rivas Logan vs. Annette Taddeo

The Senate 40 race to replace disgraced former Sen. Frank Artiles got a little more interesting Monday when Republican State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz said he would run, as expected, and perennial Democrat candidate Annette Taddeo said she would run, as always expected — setting up for some exciting primaries in both aisles. Former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla (Republican) and newly-minted State Rep. Daisy Baez (Dem) had already announced their bid for the seat that opened up last month after Artiles was caught making racial and sexist slurs to colleagues.

Former State Rep. Ana Rivas Logan, a former Republican now Democrat, told Ladra late Monday that she intended to run as well and would announce this week, making it at least a three-way race for blue voters on July 25.

Read related story: Two new ‘open’ seats spur political pinata question: 40 or 27?

Or a two-and-a-half way race. Because even though she is the Democrat Party choice, it is going to be difficult for Baez — who is barely known in her own district, let alone the one next door — to get much traction with the other two veterans in the race. And she will have to resign her seat to run. Ladra asked the Army veteran and freshman legislator if it was worth the risk of losing a recently turned House seat and her voice, which she used this year to speak against laws to punish sanctuary cities, especially now that a Senate seat in her very own district, where she was elected six months ago, will come available next year: In what is becoming an avalanche (more on that later), newly-minted Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez announced Monday that he would run for the congressional seat that will be vacated by a retiring Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. That means that the seat he won from former Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, which is where Baez votes now, would be open. (I stand corrected. J-Rod’s term is not up until 2020 and he does not have to resign to run so it might not be open… but it might be and there also might be a special election if he wins).

“I’m a person of my word. I’m not going to be switching around seats just because it’s convenient,” Baez said in what seemed like a dig at Taddeo. “I hope more people run. It’s good for democracy.”

Still, it really doesn’t make any sense for the Democrat Party, which has such a shallow bench, to put all their eggs into one basket and possibly lose a House seat they just won when they can spread their love. Maybe new Florida Dem Chair Stephen Bittel, for whom this is a first test, ought to rethink his longterm game plan. Both Taddeo and Rivas Logan have already had people vote for them in this district. They are both known entities here and this could very well become a race between the two of them.

Baez thinks that she can get voters interested in new blood. “I believe people are tired of the same names, the same faces, the family dynasties,” she said. “I think people in 40 have no appetite for recycled candidates.”

She scoffs at my carptebagger thing, since she would have to move. She said shares boundaries with Senate 40 and that she will still represent the people who elected her to House District 114 in November. “Many of the issues important to the constituents of 114 are the same in 40,” she said. “People want good jobs, economic development. We want to feel safe in our homes.”

Read related story: Red goes blue, blue goes red in four 305 seats

Those same people who elected her, Baez said, would support this move. “I went to Tallahassee and I had a great time and I learned a lot. And because I learned a lot there’s an understanding I can do better in the Senate. I can deliver better results to them as a state senator,” Baez said.

Rivas Logan, who ran for this seat last year and handily beat Andrew Korge in the primary blindfolded and with one hand tied behind her back, is not discouraged by the estrogen in the race or the fact that the Democrat Party would, again, pick someone else to back. She is used to being independent from her party, which used to be the GOP before it abandoned her in favor of Pepi Diaz when they were redrawn into the same district in 2012. Which means, by the way, that this could be a rematch of sorts.

“I’m going to do it and let the cards fall where they may,” Rivas Logan told Ladra Monday, adding that she called Taddeo to let her know. “I’m going to run a very positive campaign based on issues. And I hope we would support the other one in the general. But I am not getting out of anyone’s way this time.”

The schoolteacher and former Miami-Dade School Board member sort of canned her campaign for the same seat midway through the primary last year to avoid any negative attention from Korge, who was already hitting incumbent Sen. Dwight Bullard and had lots of money to do so. The strategy worked. Almost. She came back in time for early voting and actually beat Korge, who had outspent her.

Read related story: Senate 40 race: Ana Rivas logan still in it, could win it

She told Ladra that this was a better time for her because it is summer and school is out. “I spoke with my family and I have their full support,” she said, promising to keep her campaign positive. “It’s going to be about the issues. I have a track record of working for the people and fighting against the establishment.”

Taddeo — who moved into District 40 after selling her Pinecrest home in November — said she welcomed the competition. “I’ve never been afraid of races. In fact, this is the first time I run in an open seat,” Taddeo told Ladra.

This would be Taddeo’s first foray into a Senate campaign. She has run for congress, twice, and for county commission and lieutenant governor. It “wasn’t an easy decision” to run again, she said, but that she could not ignore the people in the community, including a number of influential black pastors, who had called her and asked her to run in this seat.

“They way things happened with Artiles was very hutful to a lot of constituents in our community,” she said, adding that she at first told them she would not run. “I was sure Dwight was going to do it,” she said, referring to Bullard, who won the primary last year but lost to Artiles and apparently understands now that only a Hispanic Democrat can beat a Hispanic Republican in that district. Bullard, she said, is not interested.

Read related story: Annette Taddeo has not gone gently into the good night

Even after Ros-Lehtinen, who Taddeo ran against in 2008, announced her retirement, the Colombian born small business owner said she didn’t flinch. “For me, it’s not about a title. It’s about fighting for the people. It’s not about a job. I have a job,” she said, referring to the translation company she owns.

“It really came down to listening to the people, the community that is telling you to do something. It would be inappropriate for me to ignore them,” she said.

One could say, however, that she keeps ignoring the voters who keep rejecting her. But Taddeo thinks this is the right seat at the right time. She told Ladra that she won almost 60% of the precincts that overlap with Congressional District 26 in her primary run against former Congressman Joe Garcia last August. Could she win in an off year?

This is all important because now that we are guaranteed a Hispanic woman, chances are that whoever wins the Democrat primary wins the general. It was already true because of the demographics — that district went to Clinton with 12 points — but now it becomes especially significant after the whole Artiles thing.

Sorry, Alex. Maybe he should run for his brother’s old Senate seat next year.

Happy Mother’s Day, a bit early. Hope you have something lovely planned for the mama in your life on Sunday — whether that be a biological, spiritual or political mama.

But the rest of the week is just a normal week in May, with government meetings and candidate events and political powwows.

Please make it easier for me and send me information about your government meetings, candidate forums and political protests to edevalle@gmail.com. Do it for mom.

TUESDAY — May 9

8:30 a.m. –Last week, the Miami Beach Tuesday Morning Breakfast Club had one of the city’s mayoral candidates, former Sen Dan Gelber, photographed left, as the speaker. This week, it is the other mayoral candidate, Commissioner Michael Grieco. Former Mayor Matti Bower, who is so far not running for anything, serves as moderator at the morning meetings, which are at Puerto Sagua Restaurant, 700 Collins Ave. Questions can be submitted in advance via Facebook.

9:00 a.m. — This will be the first Coral Gables Commission meeting for the new Mayor Raul “I’m Back” Valdes-Fauli and new Commissioner Mike Mena after both won their respective races last month. Among the items on the agenda or Commissioner Vince Lago‘s lowering of the speed limit from 30 to 25 MPH. It seems to fly in the face of reason that this will be at all effective when the Gables does not have enough police to be enforcing any speed limit, but it sounds good and will look good on his political resume. What people don’t realize is that it will cost about $200,000 for the signage, of which there will be more. Extra signs will be required to enforce the special 25 MPH speed limit. In the Gables, where people sweat every detail, that is a big deal. Ladra fully expects the measure to pass unanimously, however, less some smaty pants campaign consultant put your picture in a red convertible for an attack piece come eletion time.

5 p.m. — Palmetto Bay Council members Karyn Cunningham and David Singer will meet with Miami-Dade County officials to discuss transit and transportation issues, including a possible “bridging” of Southwest 87th Avenue from 164th to 163rd Terrace, something that has caused the community some concern and is opposed by the council. The implementation of more traffic calming devices and the criteria for such may also be discussed. Starting after 6 p.m., the two council members will also talk about the downtown urban village code, reducing speed limits around village parks and the future of the five-acre parcel of property near Villlage Hall on Franjo Road owned by Shores Development. This is an open meeting that has been noticed, as required by government in the sunshine laws, so that the two electeds can discuss something that they may and likely will have to vote on in the future. The meeting begins at 5 p.m. at Village Hall, 9705 East Hibiscus St.

THURSDAY — May 11

9:30 a.m. — While the non profits fighting over $14 million in grant allocations wait for commissioners to get comfortable with the process, the parks and recreation committee will likely dole out more than half a million in grants (if there is a quorum and they are able to meet aftr all). Of those, 37 are for organizations or projects that will boost tourism. Another 14 are for artists for cultural programs. The committee meets at 9:30 a.m. in commission chambers at County Hall, 111 NW First St.

FRIDAY — May 12

2 p.m. — Miami Beach Commissioners just can’t wait to ban casino gambling in the city. So they expedited the process and will meet on an off day Friday, the day after the issue is considered by the planning board, to vote on changes in the city’s comprehensive plan and zoning laws to prohibit gambling. The process was started last month, after a gaming bill was floated in Tallahassee. Even though the bill never saw the light of day, Beach commissioners want to pre-empt any attempt to turn Collins Avenue into the next Atlantic City.

SATURDAY — May 13

10 a.m. — In yet another sign that Miami-Dade Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava is not running for congress, her county commission re-election kick-off rally is this Saturday at Ludovici Park, 17641 Old Cutler Rd, in Palmetto Bay. There will be food and “campaign bling” — probably t-shirts since volunteers may go out and canvass the neighborhood. Levine Cava, who won her seat against Commissioner Lynda Bell in 2014 faces her first re-election next year.

SUNDAY — May 14

Happy Mother’s Day.

And we’re off. Florida Gov. Rick Scott on Monday set the date for a special election to replace disgraced former Sen. Frank Artiles, who resigned hastily last month after he was caught making racial and sexist remarks to black colleagues. The primary will be July 25 with the general election September 26.

Now, if we can only get an answer from State Rep. Jose Felix “Pepi” Diaz, the preferred candidate of the Florida Republican Party, even though there is probably nobody in Tallahassee closer to Artiles — maybe because there is nobody in Tallahassee closer to Artiles. Perhaps, since the session ended Monday, he will finally let us know one way or another: Is he going to run for Senate District 40 or what?

Diaz said goodbye to the Florida House in a teary speech Monday and has, apparently, said he is interested in running. That is, if something better doesn’t come along. He is waiting to hear about a post he’s been waiting for at the U.S. Attorney’s office in South Florida. Ladra hears it ain’t gonna happen, that he’s been passed over because he’s never seen the inside of a courtroom. He could, however, be waiting for another Trump administration handout, er, I mean position. Or to run for Florida AG if Pam Bondi makes a move.

Either way, his heart is not entirely in the Florida Senate. District 40 is a consolation prize for Diaz.

Read related story: Two new ‘open’ seats spur political piñata question: 40 or 27?

Meanwhile, he’s got the local GOP practically paralyzed. State Rep. Jeanette Nuñez is happy where she is at and plans to run for the Senate seat now occupied by Anitere Flores, which is an easier win for her and means she doesn’t have to move her young family from their home. Plus, she would be loathe to run against her one-time boss and mentor, former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla (photographed left), the first Republican (#thanksfrank) to make it official but who isn’t really one of the good ol’ boys. It’s quite likely that the GOP is looking for someone else. And no, not former Miami-Dade Commissioner Juan Zapata, who isn’t much of a party line guy either. Zap, who represented much of the same district as a state rep, hasn’t returned Ladra’s calls but he’s been running self-promoting ads on Facebook after he said he was interested. Still, we hear he will only run if his friend Diaz doesn’t.

Seems Diaz, who is holding things up, le cai bien a todo el mundo. Well, except maybe former State Rep. Ana Rivas Logan, who he waged a nasty war with in 2012 when they were redrawn into the same district and . He hasn’t gotten into any major controversy or scandal in almost seven years. Everybody says he’s loyal. Is that why the GOP has so much Pepi love? But when you really think about it, he is quite possibly the wrongest candidate for this seat, if only because it would be too much like electing Frank Artiles all over again.

Diaz is Artiles’ BFF and roommate in Tallahassee. They live in what is apparently a frat house with State Reps. Jose Oliva and Manny Diaz, Jr. or Rey Rodrigues. Diaz has been quoted as saying he has cherished the time they’ve spent together in that house. “Some of the most funny and memorable experiences of my legislative career… I wouldn’t change it for anything,” he said.

They have been side by side for seven years. Artiles wants Diaz to succeed him (and should he be allowed to hand pick his replacement?). Who knows Artiles better than Diaz? Let’s pretend for a moment that Pepi didn’t know and accept Artiles as a racist pig, which would mean the racist and sexist remarks to colleauges at an after hours were somehow an isolated incident — and nobody who knows him even a little bit believes that. But let’s pretend that Diaz had a blind spot with his friend’s racism. Was he also blind to the Hooters girl and the Playboy model that served as “consultants”?  Blind to the questionable campaign expenses?

In a scathing Miami Herald story the week he resigned, a reporter found that Artiles had used his campaign account to pay the women $3,500 for their “consulting” services and to fund trips to the Kendtucky Derby and Key West, as ell as $51,000 in reimbursements to himself. Reimbursements for what exactly? Are we to believe Diaz was never around for any of this?

And the same political consultant who refused to tell reporters what those expenses were for, David “The Disgusting” Custin, also works for Diaz (and is pushing Diaz or Nunez so he can get paid).

Everyone is talking about Pepi’s lovely little emotional goodbye speech on the house floor after the session ended Monday, but I live in District 40 and, before I vote, I want to know what Diaz knew when.

Diaz and Artiles are still tight. Artiles last week shared Diaz’s Facebook post about condo association reform. If I were Diaz, I would ask his friend to not help so much. “Dude! Deja de postear about me!”

Read related story: Frank Artiles resigns and an old rival, Juan Zapata, could run

It’s a mutual admiration thing. Diaz has posted tons of pictures of him with Artiles on his social media platforms, where he is extremely active, posting pictures with celebrities, including our celebrity presidnent, Donald Trump, who fired our esteemed state rep from The Apprentice during season 5 in 2006. I’m telling you, he’s a frat boy. Ladra nickamed him the King of Selfies. I mean, what has Diaz done in seven years in the House except take more selfies than any elected should be allowed to? Anyone? Every single bill he sponsored this year died in committee or in calendar even, including his gaming bill, which would have expanded casino and gambling options in South Florida despite the fact that it is not what his constituents want. Who does he work for anyway? Genting?

Late Monday, Artiles posted several links to his Facebook page about his best friend’s farewell speech. “Where’s he going,” someone asked in a comment.

“Running for senate,” Artiles replied.

Mark Samuelian, a Miami Beach activist who ran for commission in 2015 and lost by 77 votes, filed Monday to run again, joining the clusterbunch of candidates in the Group 2 open seat. Apparently, nobody wants to run against former Commissioner Michael Góngora in the Group 3 race.

There are four first timers running already in that Group 2 race, for a seat vacated by Commissioner Michael Greico‘s bid for mayor. They are: Zachary Eisner, Robert Lansburgh, Joshua Levy and Rafael Velasquez. Samuelian, who is president of Miami Beach United and quite active on city issues, has more name recognition and, with the first round experience, is arguably the instant front runner, especially if he keeps his preservationists base.

Read related story: Miami Beach’s Mark Samuelian scores key endorsements

“Miami Beach has transformed into a truly world-class city, but we still face important challenges,” Samuelian said in a statement. “I look forward to utilizing my decades of real-world engineering and strategic business experience to help our city tackle major issues, including transportation, flooding and sea level rise, and quality of life for our residents.

In 2015, Samuelian — who also serves on the board of the Belle Isles Residents Association and the Pets Trust Advisory Board — had the Miami Herald endorsement as well as key endorsements from activists like  Frank and Marian DelVecchio and former Miami Beach Commissioner Nancy Liebman when he ran and lost to John Elizabeth Aleman, who was the mayor’s slate mate. In the end, he got 4,999 votes to her 5,076. By a nose. He had 49.62% of the vote. Which certainly would encourage anyone to try again.

Samuelian got onto the ballot in 2015 by collecting a record number of petition signatures and told Ladra that he expect to break that record this year. He and his team will repeat the gassroots walking campaign of two years ago. “We will be listening closely to Miami Beach residents and engaging in serious conversations about our future,” Samuelian said.

But seriously, the future probably holds more candidates for this open seat. Qualifying isn’t until September even. Let’s see how long Samuelian can stay top dog.