In the end, the Republican Party couldn’t fool enough NPAs into voting for their ringer and Democrat Javier Fernandez ended up with just over 51 percent of the vote.
Fernandez will replace former State Rep. Daisy Baez, who resigned after she was caught lying about living in the district. He has to start campaigning again, immediately, since this is only to fill out the seat until November. And Ladra only hopes that Republican Andrew Vargas, who hasn’t answered a single call or text since he learned Ladra’s number, wants a rematch because he will be easier to beat the second time around because he will have less money and less credibility against an incumbent. A five minute incumbent, but an incumbent nonetheless, which was the whole point of this special election called by the GOP governor, which backfired.
But the day didn’t start so promising for Javi, or the blue party, which was jumping up and down by early Tuesday night. Even before the polls opened at 7 a.m., they knew they had an uphill battle: The majority of the 11,052 ballots cast by mail as of Monday were returned by Republicans, as usual. By a margin of about 1,000. Ouch. The early voting total of 1,876 did not seem significant enough to have any real impact on that.
Together, the early results indicated, instead, a wide gap — with Vargas scoring 52% to Fernandez’s 45. Liz de las Cuevas, the fake NPA who didn’t raise hardly any money or wage any campaign, didn’t do as much damage as expected there, with less than 3% of the ABs going to her, not enough to have made a big difference for Fernandez.
Or for Vargas, either, as the gap started to shrink and then grow again in the other direction with the Election Day precincts. First to 49 to 48% with Vargas still leading, but that didn’t last long. Within less than a couple of hits of the refresh button, Fernandez had reversed the score and then grew his lead with 51% to 47% lickety split. Fernandez had pulled an Election Day miracle: He turned an 807-vote deficit into a 721-vote lead. No way a Republican can come back from those numbers.
Whew! Because it should have been easier for Fernandez. This is a district that went blue two years ago, before the tidal wave of turnovers and Democratic victories this season. Registrations are split pretty evenly by thirds, meaning that neither party can win without independent voter support. And usually independent support leans blue.
So Vargas and the GOP — which outspent Fernandez at least 3 to 1, and we don’t even know about all the secret PAC cash — played hard with a strategy to make blue lean independent. They stuck a fake NPA candidate into the fray and then promoted her through a shady political action committee that has not reported any financial activity and that mailed dozens of attacks directly to NPA and Democrat voters in order to peel some from Fernandez to try to reduce his advantage.
Whew. In the end, they just ended up as out of breath as you right now after that sentence.
De las Cuevas got less than 2.5% of the vote, or 411 bubbles in her favor. It seems  like People for a Progressive Florida wasted their time and secret money — even with the people they hired to stand outside some high performing precincts with flyers — because de las Cuevas really should have gotten more than 400 votes just by being the only female on the ballot. I mean really? Is this the worst performing NPA in the history of the 114?
On the heels of other Democrat wins across the state — this was keeping the seat but in most cases, Dems are flipping seats — could it be that the blue tsunami is, indeed, coming?
Or what else are Republicans gonna try now that they now fake NPAs and shady PACs are useless defenses against the tidal wave?

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After being a no-show at every debate and the Miami Herald editorial board screening, Andrew Vargas, the very shy Republican candidate in the special election for Florida House District 114 phoned it in on Actualidad Radio’s morning program last week, where the other two candidates had been debating (and egging him on) for almost 18 minutes.
Immediately, Vargas had excuses. Who had Actualidad actually contacted in his campaign? Why, campaign manager Alex Miranda, said Roberto Rodriguez Tejera. Well, it must have been a miscommunication because Vargas said he would have been there, even though he would rather debate in English. “We speak English,” Ricardo Brown told him.
As for the other debates, the Herald knew his positions since February, when he interviewed with them for the primary endorsement (which he didn’t get) and he had nothing new to add, Vargas said. And the other forums? Well, they were liberal traps, naturally. Not just the League of Women Voters (right), who we now know is viewed by the local GOP as a Democrat organization. But all o’ them! Every. Single. One.
“The Coral Gables Chamber of Commerce was a Democratic forum?” That question was asked with a slightly incredulous tone by Democrat candidate Javier Fernandez, who probably did not get that warm and fuzzy feeling when he actually showed up for that one.
Read related: In House 114 race, Andrew Vargas won’t speak for himself, lets PACs attack
The radio broadcast, available online here, got sorta warm and fuzzy when Vargas said he was willing to debate Fernandez and NPA candidate (read: Republican plant) Liz de las Cuevas anytime, anywhere. This is easy to claim eight days before the election ends Tuesday and after every debate has already passed. Hundreds if not thousands of absentee ballots have already been returned. Vargas knew there was no time for another debate. That’s why he’s willing to do it now. Disingenuous, to say the least. He thinks we’re stupid.
Fernandez, who has been desperate to tackle Vargas on the issues, said he’d be willing to do it the next day. Or later on Facebook.
“I have invited you several times. Whatever venue, whatever language you want,” he said. “You can choose the forum. Facebook. West Miami. A Republican club. I am not afraid of the issues. The forum can be wherever.”
“I am willing to do it any day. But let’s do it in a just way,” said Vargas, who was a no show three days later Thursday at the taping of a Univision debate that will air at 11 a.m. on Sunday. Because he can’t debate the issues. Because he’s afraid of questions about his insurance industry lawsuits and the PAC that has been attacking him and the stinky $350,000 second mortgage he got from his PAC treasurer.
Read related: Andrew Vargas’ 350K home loan looks like a 3rd party political contribution
Apparently, “a just way” means when he can call it in on the phone so he can have someone (read: law partner and puppeteer Carlos Trujillo, a state rep tapped by Donald Trump to be U.S. Ambassador to the OAS) feed him patent answers while the phone is on mute. Does he think we haven’t been teenagers  once before?
This is a serious race and, as Brown reminded the candidates, voters have been disappointed over and over again by their state reps in this district. By snubbing his nose at legitimate forums and debates, calling the credibility of some into question simply because they are not his band, and then phoning it in at the 11th hour while the answers are likely being fed to you, Vargas is doing the voters a disservice.
And one has to wonder if (read: assume that) he would be the same guy if elected May 1 — ignoring everyone but his base.

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UPDATED: Democrat Javier Fernandez is running against two Republicans in the special election for House District 114.
The official Republican is Andrew Vargas, law partner of former State Rep. and U.S. Ambassador to the OAS, Donald Trump lackey Carlos Trujillo. The unofficial Republican is the alleged “independent” candidate, Liz de las Cuevas, who entered the race as a Republican originally and was registered Republican until eight days before the qualifying deadline. No joke. Eight days before she qualified on Dec. 28, she changed her party affiliation to NPA.
But, hey, she still likes to take pictures with Gov. Rick Scott.
The candidate touted as the “true progressive” was in Hialeah on April 10 when Scott announced his run for U.S. Senate. De las Cuevas was back in the City of Retrogress six days later at the Trump “USA Open for Business” event touting his tax plan at the Bucky Dent Gymnasium. Vargas, the partner of Trump’s hand-picked OAS guy, didn’t take time off the campaign to go, but de las Cuevas did. And  Latinas for Trump co-founder Denise Galvez Turros liked her photo, left. Thumbs up!
Then de las Cuevas attended the Lincoln Day Dinner, the Miami-Dade GOP’s biggest annual fundraiser, on April 20. And in a debate on Actualidad Radio last week, she admitted that she would likely vote with the Republicans most often.
Then there’s Evelio Medina, a MAGA true believer behind the Deplorables Nation organization and events, and de las Cuevas campaign manager. Medina called Ladra Friday, coincidentally (read: not) five minutes after we called Vargas’ accountant and funky mortgage holder Richie Puerto. Ladra would love to see some law enforcement agency subpoena Medina’s phone records when they investigate that third party campaign contribution (Do you hear me, Kathy Fernandez Rundle, or do you only punish Democrats?)
Read related: Andrew Vargas’ $350K home loan looks like a 3rd party political contribution
When I mentioned that this went against his cult, Medina said he was de las Cuevas’ “cousin” and that blood was thicker than political waters. But Ladra’s not buying it.
Especially since there has been a shady political action committee working on the NPA candidate’s behalf for months, hitting Fernandez with negative mailers and touting de las Cuevas as the “true progressive.” This sketchy PAC, People for a Progressive Florida, has not reported a single contribution or expense, even though it has sent out more than a dozen mailers — and should have been investigated months ago and shut down or else why even have campaign finance laws in the first place.
People for a Progressive Florida was formed around the same time that de las Cuevas changed her party registration from Republican to NPA.
De las Cuevas has not raised much. She got donations for a total of $11,265 and loaned herself $9,000. Yet de las Cuevas has benefited from multiple mailers (like the one photographed right) — sent only to Democrat and NPA voters — urging them to reject Fernandez as a fake Democrat and vote for the real progressive in the race, de las Cuevas. So someone is investing in her. But we don’t know who because no information has been reported — which is what the Republicans would do if the money were theirs.
Read related: In 114 race, Andrew Vargas won’t speak for himself, lets PACs attack
All of this leads to only one logical conclusion: Liz de las Cuevas is a Republican plantidate, put into the race solely to siphon or peel votes from Fernandez, who can only win with large swaths of independents voting blue. Smart but sneaky strategy.
Ladra hopes that the Democrats and NPAs in District 114 are smarter.
De Las Cuevas finally called me back Saturday afternoon, a couple of hours after this was posted, to try to explain herself. She confirmed that she was originally running as a Republican but changed to NPA because she didn’t want to be a third wheel in a primary. “There were two other men running in the primary,” she says, referring to Vargas and Jose Pazos. “I didn’t want to participate in what I knew would be a negative campaign.”
Riiiiight. Because what female candidate with no name recognition wouldn’t want to catch the fallout from a negative attack race between two guys with no name recognition?
Asked if she truly considers herself a progressive, de las Cuevas answered affirmatively. “I am running a morally correct campaign, that is why I am not taking money from the parties,” she said, repeating over and over that she is an educator (which usually means she doesn’t work in the classroom).
But for someone who is allegedly so smart, she acts dumb when it comes time to put her progressive policy where her mouth is. She knows she is going to win. And, although she says she has nothing to do with the PAC that is obviously helping her — or, rather, helping Vargas, since she knows she is not going to win — she wouldn’t do what a true principled progressive would do and that is get off the ballot to give Fernandez, who would definitely advocate the progressive view in Tallahassee, a chance.
“I don’t care about that,” she answered when Ladra said that if Vargas got elected it was likely because of her. A true progressive, eh?
“I’m not stepping out of the race because I don’t feel like it,” she said, adding that she will run for office again.
Maybe next time she should be honest and run as a Republican. She can use that picture with Rick Scott in her campaign materials.
 

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A political action committee that continues to attack the Democrat candidate for Florida House District 114 may not the only sign of dark money in that special election. The Republican candidate got a second mortgage on his home last December for $350,000 from the treasurer of another political action committee working on his behalf.
The special election, which ends Tuesday, was called by Gov. Rick Scott after former State Rep. Daisy Baez resigned after she was caught lying about living in the district. Andrew Vargas lives in the district, dear voters. He may only have moved here recently, but he is so invested in his new home that he is, in fact, underwater in the South Miami house he bought with is wife in 2015.
Or is he? Could a second balloon mortgage loan he got four months ago, from the treasurer of one of his political action committees, actually be a campaign contribution? An illegal, third party campaign contribution?
Vargas, the law partner of U.S. Ambassador and former State Rep. Carlos Trujillo, got a second mortgage on his home last December for $350,000, even though he was still paying off a $468,000 first mortgage on a house that is assessed at $526,786. What bank would approve such a deal? Well, none probably. That is why he turned to his friend and firm’s accountant, Richard Puerto — who also happens to be the treasurer on his Citizens for Accountability and Transparency political action committee, which has been attacking Democrat Javier Fernandez for weeks.
Puerto made the loan Dec. 18, coincidentally (or maybe not) 10 days before the qualifying deadline for the special election. According to county clerk records, it looks like an interest-only loan — and the interest may only be $10 — payable in a year, so it has to be paid back a month after the November election.
The timing is not the only thing that is sus’. So is the source.
How does Puerto, 35, a partner in a small accounting firm who lives in a modest two-bedroom Dadeland area Kendall condo assessed at $133,165, also happen to have liquid large to loan just like that? That is the $350,000 question.
“Because I work like a dog. I have no life,” Puerto (photographed left) told Ladra Friday.
After explaining how this reeked of a third party contribution, and someone using the accountant as a conduit to hide the true source, Puerto said he understood the perception, but promised it was just him helping out a pal.
“It’s a mortgage, a normal mortgage. It has nothing to do with a donation. It only has to do with building a house,” he said.
“I’ve known Andrew for a very long time. I’m very proud of him and I hope he wins,” Puerto added. “I gave him a fair market loan. We’ve had various business transactions and his credit is an 850 with me.
“It’s a totally legit loan. It’s a line of credit, really.”
So it’s a $350,000 line of credit? Thanks for the clarification.
It’s not like Ladra is grasping at straws here. Vargas — who wouldn’t return multiple phone calls and text messages — has already shown a penchant for hiding behind secret funds. There has already been another PAC that has been attacking Fernandez since before the primary, but People for a Progressive Florida has not reported a single contribution or expense in their required campaign finance reports.
We just had to be sure. And, really, all we have now is a possible best case scenario. At worst, this is a third party contribution, impossible to track, and voters will never know who Vargas — who has been able to loan his campaign at least $60,000 — is truly going to represent in Tallahassee.
At best? He’s not terribly fiscally responsible.

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Andrew Vargas, the Republican candidate in the special election for House 114 to replace Daisy Baez, hasn’t confirmed to an invitation to the first debate for the seat, held by the League of Women Voters this coming Tuesday.
He won’t. He can’t. Because it is much easier for Vargas to attack Democrat Javier Fernandez with fake voter letters and a secret political action committee that doesn’t file required financial reports than it is to discuss the issues, which would show what an empty suit he is and expose him as the proxy for his business partner and puppeteer, U.S. Ambassador and former State Rep. Carlos Trujillo.
When Ladra called Vargas to ask why he hadn’t confirmed, he hemmed and hawed. “I have an event in the Gables the 19th,” he finally said. “Wait. Is it the 19th?” No, it’s the 17th, I corrected him. “Well, um, er, right now we’re doing the whole absentee ballot thing,” he said, adding that he would call me back later that evening, after 6 p.m.
Surprise, surprise. He didn’t. He wouldn’t. Don’t worry. Ladra didn’t expect him to. Just as we didn’t expect him to pick up the phone again when I called him again twice later (not now that he has me on caller ID). Just as I didn’t expect him to respond to the text I sent after he didn’t respond to the second phone call.
Nobody should expect him to call because Ladra had some difficult questions that he doesn’t want to answer, which is why he won’t go to the debate on Tuesday, which is really at least a couple of weeks late since absentee ballots were sent out last week and already 7,131 voters (or almost 30% of the ones that went out) have mailed them back in as of Friday. By Tuesday, it could be twice as many. Really. Ladra is not even sure Vargas will show up to the Miami Herald editorial board screening the next day (Sorry Nancy). Because (1) he thinks he doesn’t have to, (2) he really doesn’t have a leg to stand on and (3) he knows that Fernandez is going to Facebook Live the shit out of it, exposing his ignorance on the issues.
Also — its why he didn’t call me back or pick up subsequent phone calls — he doesn’t want to answer a bunch of uncomfortable questions:

Why did you change seats? You were filed to run in District 119, where State Rep. Jeannette Nunez (R-Doral) is termed out this year. Makes sense. You have roots there. You wouldn’t have to move. Why did you switch?
Will you run in HD 119 if you lose here?
How long did you live in District 119?
Do you live in District 114 now? How long have you lived there? Or do you plan to move there? This is especially important in this district because the last state rep lived a few blocks away in 112.
Why did you change from a Democrat to Republican in 2016? Did Trujillo “suggest” it?
Can you explain what it means to be the second most litigious attorney in the state when it comes to those sketchy “assignment of benefits” lawsuits against insurance companies? How many of those cases have you filed? And how does that affect rising insurance rates for everyone?
How much do you  pay for your insurance?
How much of your campaign contributions come from the insurance industry (including trial lawyers)
Are these kind of opportunistic switches, underhanded tricks and lack of access or accountability what we can expect if you are, either by sheer miracle or absentee ballot fraud, actually elected?

Vargas isn’t going to answer these questions. Not to me and not at any debate. Ladra asks voters to ask him directly when they see him — if they see him anywhere in either 114 or 119 — but I expect he’ll smile and shrug his shoulders and back away slowly. This is the kind of guy que tira la piedra y esconde la mano. Or he has someone else do the dirty work for him.
The anonymous attacks on Fernandez, for example, are almost certainly coming from his campaign.
The fake voter testimonials and other attack mailers from a PAC called People for a Progressive Florida with no financial activity — which should be investigated because mailers do not get made and mailed for free — are the way that Vargas speaks. It’s really pretty obvious. Sure, the attacks are made to look like they benefit Liz de las Cuevas, the independent who has denied knowing anything about the mailers or the JaviLobby.com website that attacks the Dem candidate for his profession. De las Cuevas has no money in her own campaign account (actually, she is in the red, spending $345 more than the $5,165 she raised) and wouldn’t know what to do with that money if she had it). Most likely, these are sneaky attempts by the Vargas campaign (read: Trujillo) to suppress the Democrat vote and peel NPAs off Fernandez. It’s smart, considering that Baez snatched this seat from under the nose of the better funded Republican John Couriel after Erik Fresen was termed out. And this was before unnatural disaster known as the Donald Trump Presidency produced the prediction of a national blue wave.
Of course the GOP candidates are turning to every dirty tactic to regain this seat.
Because Vargas isn’t going to be Trujillo’s bitch exclusively. Sure, he’s a proxy for Trujillo, who is President Donald Trump‘s Cuban amigacho and is now U.S. Ambassador to the Organization of American States, but, at the same time, doesn’t want to lose the sizeable palanca he’s built in the Sunshine State. But Vargas was also always a proxy for the Republican Party (read: incoming House Speaker Jose Oliva), even when he was running in the other seat just the other day.
He switched to 114 as soon a Baez was caught living outside the district and was publicly pressured to resign for having lied about it. In fact, dicen las malas lenguas that Trujillo may have executive produced that public pressure by calling on his Miami-Dade Republican Party friends to plan a series of picturesque picket protests in front of Baez’s District 112 house, custom made for video, that were covered by the local press (including yours truly). Why? Because it’s easier for this Pepe Cualquiera proxy to win a seat in a special low-turnout election (just add gobs of money).
Vargas has raised $416,000 between his campaign account and money spent by the PAC he is obviously connected with, which is Citizens for Accountable Government, which gets its money from other PACs that get a lot of their money from a lot of healthcare interests and Sunshine Gasoline Distributors, who also gave generously to Vargas. The money includes a $60K loan to himself, almost $80,000 in money and staff and research from the Republican Party of Florida, and small bundled donations from the Munilla brothers, who built the FIU bridge and other things all over the county, HCA Florida hospitals — yes, the one where former Gov. Rick Scott was CEO when they bilked millions from Medicare — Disney and a few others (like auto mogul Norman Braman).
But if you add up the ten or so mailers and the money spent by People for a Progressive Florida, you have… wait, you can’t add those expenses up because the secret PAC has not reported any contributions or expenses. Ladra doesn’t know how they managed to send so many mailers or host a website but DM me please and tell me what your secret is. Okay, if we estimate what that PAC has spent, it’s at least $200,000, conservatively. So that’s a total of $616,000 that we know of. So far.
Meanwhile, Fernandez, has about raised $141,524 in his campaign account with a few bundles of his own, including at least $22,000 from a group of construction and real estate companies or entities at the same six addresses in New York. His Florida Future PAC — which has launched a saynotovargas.com website, has collected another $33,725, about $30K of which is from the same NY construction and real estate firms.
But Ladra is certain of one thing: We will ask Mr. Fernandez about the interest of those New York donors and he will answer, because he has never avoided my calls and even returned a text once after 11:30 p.m. That’s the accessibility you want from your electeds, by the way, Mr. Vargas.
But we can wait until the debate Tuesday and ask Fernandez there. Because he will be there. So will de las Cuevas. The only one who can’t speak for himself is Vargas.
The Miami-Dade League of Women Voters will be taking questions in advance submitted to info@lwvmiamidade.org. Questions may also be submitted in writing the evening of the forum before it begins at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, April 17th (not the 19th, Mr. Vargas) at the Riviera Presbyterian Church, 5275 Sunset Drive.

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It was a slam dunk with the absentee ballots.
As soon as the mail-in votes were counted for the Republican primary in House District 114, Andrew Vargas — an insurance attorney who is the law partner of State Rep. Carlos Trujillo — was celebrating a victory with 76% of them. Jose Pazos, a Marine who runs a condo management firm, knew he lost. It ended up 75-25, but really, at this point, does it matter?
So there is nothing indicating any AB fraud in the Vargas campaign, run by Steve Marin and Alex Miranda (former chief of staff to Democrat Philip Levine when he was Miami Beach mayor). It looks like they just had a good strategy made possible by lots and lots of campaign cash — at least $190,000 as of Feb. 15, compared to Pazos $30k.
Read related story: Jose Pazos is best, familiar choice for House 114 special primary  today
It’s hard to say that money didn’t make the difference, since Vargas had quite a bit more promotion in the weeks leading up to the AB drop: at least six mailers, three phone banks and canvassers who swept the absentee voters in the district — twice. In comparison, Pazos had one mailer, one phone bank and canvassers maybe contacted AB voters once. Maybe.
One of the mailers which went to all AB voters for Vargas is this one with newly-minted Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who is popular in the District. So much so, they mailed it twice.
“Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is with Andrew Vargas,” said one side. “Andrew Vargas has, among his qualities, the integrity and leadership that the residents of District 114 deserve. I look forward to working with him to help our communities,” it quoted Suarez on the other side.
Home. Run.
If one really wanted to split hairs, one could say that Trujillo and Suarez won this election. Because if you asked Pepe Voter six weeks ago who Andrew Vargas was they might have guessed. “Un reggeatonero? El cura? Tu tio? El hijo del presidente de Paraguay?” He is relatively new and unknown in the district. In fact, Vargas was the GOP pick to succeed State Rep. Jeannette Nunez, who is termed out, in District 119 where he has roots, but switched to 114 as soon as Daisy Baez resigned for non residency and lying about it — some would say he had his bags packed before she signed on the dotted line and that Trujillo kept putting the pressure on Baez to resign (which was the right thing to do). Vargas still has to campaign, starting tomorrow probably, because this is just to fill Baez’ vacancy until November. So he just wanted the advantage of an incubency won during a  low turnout special election.
And, of course, he still has to beat Democrat lobbyist Javier Fernandez May 1.  That might prove more difficult than beating Pazos in a swing district that is turning bluer and in the Trump backlash timezone. And Ladra and some other political observers believe that Vargas may have a harder time against Fernandez than Pazos would have. He’s already been blamed for the attack ads that started against the Dem even before the primary was over.
Read related story: Limited early voting in House 114 GOP primary could be voter suppression
A series of emails and robocalls that Ladra has not seen or heard, but were reported in the Miami Herald, are made to look like they ame from Fernandez himself.  “My name is Javier Fernandez, but my friends call me Javi “Lobby.” I’m a lobbyist who’s represented casinos, out-of-state developers, professional sports franchises, and, yes, retail sex toy shops,” the email states.
It is distributed by a brand new political actiona committee, People for a Progressive Florida, but Hernandez has blamed Vargas… and c’mon! Pazos couldn’t even raise enough money for his own campaign!
Hernandez, who has demanded a debate to counter the claims, is likely to bring up the fact that Vargas is the second most litigious attorney in the state when it comes to “assignment of benefits” lawsuits against insurance companies, which legislators have said are increasingly fraudulent and which are arguably driving the cost of homeowner insurance up (more on that later).. Ladra can see the mailers now: “You pay more insurance because of this guy,” with an arrow pointing to Vargas. “He wants you to pay even more,” reads the other side.
Hey, he drew first blood.
There are about 34,000 Republicans registered in the District. Only 4,488 voters cast ballots in this race (overseas and provisional ballots still have to be counted but won’t make one iota of a difference).. Because Republicans aren’t that adamant about voting unless it’s against a Democrat. More will come out in May. But they will be joined by about as many Democrats and about as many Independents, who are likely going to be a deciding factor.
Which means only one thing for certain: Vargas is going to spend a lot more money.

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