It was a slam dunk with the absentee ballots.
As soon as the mail-in votes were counted for the Republican primary in House District 114, Andrew Vargas — an insurance attorney who is the law partner of State Rep. Carlos Trujillo — was celebrating a victory with 76% of them. Jose Pazos, a Marine who runs a condo management firm, knew he lost. It ended up 75-25, but really, at this point, does it matter?
So there is nothing indicating any AB fraud in the Vargas campaign, run by Steve Marin and Alex Miranda (former chief of staff to Democrat Philip Levine when he was Miami Beach mayor). It looks like they just had a good strategy made possible by lots and lots of campaign cash — at least $190,000 as of Feb. 15, compared to Pazos $30k.
Read related story: Jose Pazos is best, familiar choice for House 114 special primary  today
It’s hard to say that money didn’t make the difference, since Vargas had quite a bit more promotion in the weeks leading up to the AB drop: at least six mailers, three phone banks and canvassers who swept the absentee voters in the district — twice. In comparison, Pazos had one mailer, one phone bank and canvassers maybe contacted AB voters once. Maybe.
One of the mailers which went to all AB voters for Vargas is this one with newly-minted Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who is popular in the District. So much so, they mailed it twice.
“Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is with Andrew Vargas,” said one side. “Andrew Vargas has, among his qualities, the integrity and leadership that the residents of District 114 deserve. I look forward to working with him to help our communities,” it quoted Suarez on the other side.
Home. Run.
If one really wanted to split hairs, one could say that Trujillo and Suarez won this election. Because if you asked Pepe Voter six weeks ago who Andrew Vargas was they might have guessed. “Un reggeatonero? El cura? Tu tio? El hijo del presidente de Paraguay?” He is relatively new and unknown in the district. In fact, Vargas was the GOP pick to succeed State Rep. Jeannette Nunez, who is termed out, in District 119 where he has roots, but switched to 114 as soon as Daisy Baez resigned for non residency and lying about it — some would say he had his bags packed before she signed on the dotted line and that Trujillo kept putting the pressure on Baez to resign (which was the right thing to do). Vargas still has to campaign, starting tomorrow probably, because this is just to fill Baez’ vacancy until November. So he just wanted the advantage of an incubency won during a  low turnout special election.
And, of course, he still has to beat Democrat lobbyist Javier Fernandez May 1.  That might prove more difficult than beating Pazos in a swing district that is turning bluer and in the Trump backlash timezone. And Ladra and some other political observers believe that Vargas may have a harder time against Fernandez than Pazos would have. He’s already been blamed for the attack ads that started against the Dem even before the primary was over.
Read related story: Limited early voting in House 114 GOP primary could be voter suppression
A series of emails and robocalls that Ladra has not seen or heard, but were reported in the Miami Herald, are made to look like they ame from Fernandez himself.  “My name is Javier Fernandez, but my friends call me Javi “Lobby.” I’m a lobbyist who’s represented casinos, out-of-state developers, professional sports franchises, and, yes, retail sex toy shops,” the email states.
It is distributed by a brand new political actiona committee, People for a Progressive Florida, but Hernandez has blamed Vargas… and c’mon! Pazos couldn’t even raise enough money for his own campaign!
Hernandez, who has demanded a debate to counter the claims, is likely to bring up the fact that Vargas is the second most litigious attorney in the state when it comes to “assignment of benefits” lawsuits against insurance companies, which legislators have said are increasingly fraudulent and which are arguably driving the cost of homeowner insurance up (more on that later).. Ladra can see the mailers now: “You pay more insurance because of this guy,” with an arrow pointing to Vargas. “He wants you to pay even more,” reads the other side.
Hey, he drew first blood.
There are about 34,000 Republicans registered in the District. Only 4,488 voters cast ballots in this race (overseas and provisional ballots still have to be counted but won’t make one iota of a difference).. Because Republicans aren’t that adamant about voting unless it’s against a Democrat. More will come out in May. But they will be joined by about as many Democrats and about as many Independents, who are likely going to be a deciding factor.
Which means only one thing for certain: Vargas is going to spend a lot more money.

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Today is the day we find out if homegrown grassroots can beat big money when the votes are counted in the Republican primary for the House District 114 seat.
The former would be Jose “Pep” Pazos, 42, a Marine who runs a condo management business and who has lived in the district all his life. His partner is former State Rep. Julio “The Good One” Robaina and his former partner is ex Miami-Dade Commissioner Juan “Zorro” Zapata — two of the few good guys who represented their constituents not special interests.
The latter would be Andrew Vargas, 35, an insurance lawyer who just moved into the neighborhood and a law office partner of State Rep. Carlos Trujillo, the appropriations chair, which is the main reason why Pazos lags behind in campaign cash: Nobody wants to piss Trujillo off.
This is why Vargas has almost $190,000 in contributions — including bundled donations from charter school interests, lobbyists like Ron Book and the Munilla family — and loaned himself another $50K for $24o,000 as of last Thursday (Feb. 15), according to the last campaign finance report. He’s been able to spend it on multiple mailers and Pazos has a measly $30,000. It’s a David and Goliath battle many political observers believe Gov. Rick Scott scheduled intentionally in order for Vargas to have an advantage.
Of the 34,000 registered Republicans in the district, a little over 3,900 have been returned so far. That includes 3,691 absentee ballots returned to the  Miami-Dade Elections Department as of Friday and the 210 votes during early voting last week. The Coral Gables library has the highest number of early voting ballots cast at 160. That’s three times the 50 cast at the two southern library branches — where soneone named Andrew might do better — combined.
The winner of today’s race could very well already be decided.
Pazos has his base in the northern end of the district, where voting performance is high and absentee ballots are more tyupical. He has both the mayor of West Miami and Miami Commissioner Manolo Reyes, whose district overlaps with 114, as allies. And we know him. He’s the son of a former Cuban political prisoner. And he’s run for office twice before, once losing to State Rep. Michael Bileca, before the district was redrawn, and another time in 2014, but he withdrew before qualification because his father was ill. We feel like we know him and/or want to know him.
The Miami Herald endorsement, which doesn’t always get it right, was spot on when it said that Pazos has more experience and more passion than Vargas. Las malas lenguas tell Ladra that Vargas is really running to please Trujillo, that he’s going to be Trujillo’s proxy after the state rep leaves to be an Ambassador for Donald Trump.
We do know that Vargas wasn’t going to run in this seat as recently as last summer. He was filed to run in House District 119, where State Rep. Jeanette Nunez is termed out, because he lived and grew up in Lakes of the Meadows. He only moved into 114 recently and changed seats only after former Democrat State Rep. Daisy Baez was caught living outside the district and lying about it. She was forced to resign after protesters showed up at her Coral Gables house and demanded it — protesters that some say were sent by Trujillo, who has been reportedly parading Vargas around Tallahassee, office by office.
This district has been plagued by controversy and it needs to have someone whose backstory is not so convoluted.
Ladra also thinks Pazos has the best chances against the Democrat candidate, lobbyist Javier Fernandez — if that’s what you Republivans want.
 

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Miami-Dade Elections Supervisor Christina White has added the West Flagler library branch to the list of early voting locations for the needless May 1 House District 114 special election. But that doesn’t solve the problem for the two Republicans in next week’s primary.
Or, really, for the one Republican who stands to lose the most and might not make it to the general.
Early voting started Saturday at three polling places in Coral Gables, Pinecrest and Cutler Bay. But two polling places in the northern end of the district that are normally open for early voting in countywide elections — West Miami Community Center and the West Flagler library — are not. And White told Ladra that there was nothing she could do now. Florida statutes require that she set the early voting calendar at least 30 days prior to the first day. Her hands are tied.
Unfortunately, this could have a damning make-or-break effect on one of the candidates.
Jose Pazos — a Marine and son of a an ex political prisoner in Cuba who has lived in the district all his life — has his base of support in the West Miami and Flagami area, where the older Cuban voters may remember him from his run in 2010 (although the district lines were redrawn somewhat) and are more likely to vote for Pazos than someone named Andrew. Conversely, Andrew Vargas — an attorney who really doesn’t have a base anywhere as he recently moved in from the Lakes of the Meadows area, where he was running for office just a few months ago — will likely have more fans in Pinecrest and Cutler Bay than a Jose would.
Is this fair? Ladra understands that White can’t do anything about it now. But why didn’t she add the other two polling places — or at least the one that is being added to the May election — from the beginning?
There are 20 early voting locations in a normal countywide election, but they don’t activate all of the ones in a particular city or district for a smaller race, White said. There may have been more early voting sites in the most recent special election in Senate District 40 and House District 116, but there were three times as many voters as in District 114, she added.
She also said that there were more eligible registered voters in Coral Gables than Miami and West Miami combined. In fact, she had considered having only two polling places, but the district is “very long and narrow and two is probably too few,” White said.
“The decision was not made from a cost perspective but on whether it is warranted.”
But what does that mean? And who makes that determination? Is it White or her boss, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez?
Read related story: Limited early voting in House 114 GOP primary could be voter supression
Three is still too few, as evidenced by the fact that a fourth site has been added to the May 1 election, and several local leaders got involved: The West Miami mayor, Miami Commissioner Manolo Reyes, county Commissioner Rebeca Sosa and local Republican Party honcho Nelson Diaz, who even threatened to sue the county under the federal voting rights act if they did not add the two other polling places. But they were too late: The first complaint White got about the issue was when Diaz contacted her on Jan. 12 — 29 days before the first day of early voting — said Elections Spokeswoman Suzy Trutie.
White also said that she expected Flagami and West Miami voters to easily access the Gables library branch, which is historically one of the highest peforming polling places (and so far this election is no different). But couldn’t we expect as much of the Pinecrest voters, which I assume there are fewer of? Ladra thinks that it’s much easier for the soccer moms with GPS to find the Coral Gables branch than the working class transit card holders and elderly voters of the northwestern part of the district. White’s caluclations didn’t take that into effect. Maybe the Pinecrest library branch should have been the polling place that was discarded. I wonder what the historical turnout is there compared to the West Flagler library.
Numbers show that only two people voted at the Pinecrest library over the weekend, compared to five people at the South Dade library and 44 people in Coral Gables. On Monday, four people voted at the two southern locations and 19 people voted in the Gables. On Tuesday there were no voters at Pinecrest — zero — three at South Dade and 16 in the Gables. On Wednesday, three votes at each of the two southern  locations and 15 in the Gables.
Hopefully, the higher numbers in the City Beautiful indicate voters traveling in from West Miami and Flagami. Ladra also hopes the turnout picks up as the week progresses.
Because anything but a landslide is going to raise eyebrows.

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Early voting starts Saturday in the Republican primary for House District 114, but voters in the north end may have to drive further to cast a ballot.
This is already a low turnout race, a special election to replace former Democrat State Rep. Daisy Baez, who resigned last year after she was caught living outside her district and lying about it. Gov. Rick Scott called a special election just six months before the real election, presumably to give a Republican, who normally have the edge in special low turnout elections, an incumbency in November for an advantage in the swing seat.
Only three polling places will be open for early voting — the libraries in Coral Gables, Pinecrest and Cutler Bay. The library in Flagami and the West Miami Community Center, which are normally early voting locations, are not included in this race, even though there are voters that live in those precincts.
Does anybody else see a pattern here?
One of the candidates, Jose Pazos, is crying foul. “My base is in the north of the district,” he told Ladra Thursday.
It’s also where a majority of the Cuban or Hispanic voters are concentrated. It’s where the lower income voters are concentrated. It’s probably also where the older voters are concentrated. They may not go if they have to get to Salzedo Street and University Drive in Coral Gables (exactly) to cast their ballots.
Is this voter supression? If Ladra didn’t know any better, we might think there was a concerted effort to keep Latino voters away.
A late night text to Miami-Dade Elections Supervisor Christina White Thursday was not answered. But White has likely heard about this already. Pazos said that West Miami Mayor Eduardo Muhiña and newly-elected Miami Commissioner Manolo Reyes — both of whom have consituents who are being disenfranchised — have written letters asking that the two northern polling places be open for early voting.
The other candidate in this primary is Andrew Vargas, an insurance lawyer and named partner of State Rep. Carlos Trujillo, who had signed up to run in House District 119 to replace Jeanette Nuñez, but changed to 114 as soon as Baez announced her resignation. It is widely rumored that Trujillo made the protests in front of Baez’s house happen to speed up her fall from grace so Vargas could run here instead in a special election. Andrew, of course, is expected to do better in Pinecrest et al than Jose.
The winner of this Feb. 20 election (more on this soon) will face Democrat lobbyist Javier Fernandez, who has no primary, in May — which will be another low-turnout special election.
The county and elections officials should be doing everything to engage as many voters as possible, especially in elections where already fewer people will be making this important choice. Perhaps Miami-Dade Commissioner Rebeca Sosa, whose constituents are being disenfranchised at the worst and incovenienced at the least, should get involved. Or Miami GOP pres Nelson Diaz.
There is still time to do the right thing. Early voting starts at 8 a.m. Saturday. Hours are 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. on weekends and 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. on weekdays.
Early voting ends Feb. 18 and is at the following locations:

Coral Gables Branch Library, 3443 Segovia Street, Coral Gables
Pinecrest Branch Library, 5835 SW 111th Street, Pinecrest
South Dade Regional Library, 10750 SW 211th Street, Cutler Bay

And, hopefully, at the West Miami Community Center and the Hispanic library branch in Flagami.

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A number of Florida House seats in the 305 will be vacated by term-limited legislators next year — and already there are a bunch of wannabes getting in line to replace ’em.

David Rivera jumped into the race for District 105 last week, which would pit him against Doral Councilwoman Ana Maria Rodriguez, who filed her campaign paperwork in December for the seat vacated by State Rep. Carlos Trujillo.

But that’s not the only GOP primary already shaping up for 2018. There are three others.

Read related story: If at first you don’t succeed… David Rivera tries again

In District 119, where State Rep. Jeanette Nunez serves now, Republicans Enrique Lopez and Andrew Vargas have already opened up campaign accounts. Lopez has loaned himself $50,000 and raised another $33,240 in February alone. Vargas just filed last month so he has nothing to report. Ladra hears that Commissioner Joe Martinez‘s daughter may also consider a run there.

In District 116, where Rep. Jose Felix Diaz is getting a time-out, Republicans Jose Mallea and Daniel Anthony Perez have also made their intentions clear. Neither has raised any money yet.

Say buh-bye: In this picture, only Rep. Jose Oliva (top, left) is not termed out.

There are three Republicans already raising money for a campaign in District 115, where Rep. Michael Bileca will be termed out: Vance Aloupis, Carlos Gobel and Carmen Sotomayor. Only Sotomayor has reported raising any money, and its $100 at that, having filed in January. Both Alupis and Gobel filed last month and have not had to file any campaign reports yet.

Each of these are already Republican seats and it’s curious that no Democrats have yet shown their faces, especially in 105 and 115, both of which are seats where Obama did well.

Instead, we have Republicans dominating the early game, with two GOP challengers filing against two of the three newly-minted, freshman Democrats. Jose Pazos, who abandoned his campaign last year due to his father’s health, is going against Rep. Daisy Baez in 114 and Rosy Palomino, who lost last year against Nicholas Duran in 112 (53-47%), wants a rematch.

You just know someone is going to file against the other freshman Dem, State Rep. Robert Asencio in 118. Give it another month or two.