Billy Corben vs. ‘Shev’ Jones means nobody loses
Anybody who wants to meet the Democratic candidates running for office in this month’s primary can find a bunch of them at Beat Culture Brewery Friday night at an event organized by Miami Cuban Dems.
Among the confirmed candidates are two who want to reclaim congressional seats lost in 2020: Sen. Annette Taddeo, who is running to unseat Maria Elvira Salazar in District 27, and former State Rep. Robert Asencio, who is running to unseat Carlos Gimenez in District 28.
Voters will get to decide if the newly created elected Miami-Dade sheriff’s seat, tax collector and supervisor of elections will be partisan positions or not after the county commission voted last week to put the referendum on the 2020 ballot.
The sheriff’s position was created last year by voters who also made the elections head and tax collector elected positions rather than appointees of the mayor. The property appraiser’s seat was already a nonpartisan elected office, as are the county mayor and commission seats, as are most municipal offices.
“The positions of Sheriff, Property Appraiser, Tax Collector, and Supervisor of Elections are positions that our residents should have the right to select, endorse, and vote on the basis of merit, regardless of party affiliation,” said Commissioner Esteban Bovo, who sponsored the resolution.
But who is he kidding? Campaigns for these seats have increasingly become partisan, especially as Democrats — who have a majority of the voters in Miami-Dade but have not had a majority of elected representatives — try to seed the bench at the local level to create viable candidates for state office.
Read related: Dems push full court press for Eileen Higgins in special District 5 county race
It really started to be obvious in the 2014 race between Daniella Levine-Cava and former Commissioner Lynda Bell, the incumbent. Democrats poured tons of resources into the Levine-Cava campaign and had impact.
Last year, Democrats helped Commissioner Eileen Higgins win a special election over two Republicans who were better known.
In 2016, local Dems scrambled to find a challenger to Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, who himself toyed with changing his party in a publicity stunt orchestrated by Hillary Clinton supporters, which included his spokesman and one of his campaign managers.
And Dems are not losing hope: They want a blue mayor in 2020.
Read related: Carlos Gimenez’s party switch talk is consistent, distracting
Kendall Democrats President Bryan Hernandez, who worked on the Donna Shalala for Congress and Heath Rassner for State House campaigns last year — said as much in an op-ed he wrote this week for the Community Newspapers:
“Our county is in desperate need of visionary, smart leadership. The mayor who succeeds Carlos Gimenez must be a Democrat who will tackle the serious issues facing Miami-Dade,” noting there are a number of Democrats running. Those include Levine-Cava and former Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas.
“I’m a 23-year-old professional who’s starting off his career in Miami. Affordable housing, public transit, and sea level rise are critical issues to me,” Hernandez said. “If a politician wants my vote in the 2020 mayoral election, they need to propose bold solutions to these problems.
He goes on to write about the issues the next mayor will have to face (because this mayor sure won’t, which includes climate change, traffic, affordable housing and “the growing level of inequality.” But it makes one wonder: Do you have to be a Democrat to care about those things.
Hernandez also talks about the rich getting richer with developers who live off the politicians they buy — but Ladra’s experience is that this practice is also bipartisan.
Read related: Political musical chairs: Recycled electeds vie for 2020 seats
“Miami-Dade County is ground zero for both issues. The next mayor must lead us through these great challenges and secure a good future for me and my generation of Miamians,” Hernandez writes. “I call on local Democratic clubs, progressive groups, and all those tired with this corrupt, abysmal leadership to start planning for the goal of electing a bold Democratic mayor in 2020. That work must begin now.”
On the one hand, these races should be nonpartisan. It’s the right thing to do so that Independent voters aren’t shut out of the process or so that one party doesn’t dominate a race. But, on the other hand, is it really going to matter? Unless there are rules and penalties for bringing up partisanship in non partisan elections, there will always be the campaigns that use the R or the D to their advantage.
Even if the letter is invisible.
It started good at the top of the ticket. Then, ouch.
Was former Sen. Bill Nelson and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum actually winning with absentee ballots? Because early results had them just over 50.
Even Jeffrey “Doc” Solomon had 525 votes over newly-elected State Rep. Vance Aloupis, right, who ended up winning by 591 votes.
But that feeling of rising hope quickly turned to disbelief and dread when the blue wave turned into a wipeout after Gov. Elect Ron DeSantis and former Gov. and Senator elect Rick Scott turned it around.
We had a few bright spots where the wave did crash nicely.
Democrats gained two seats in Congress, with the election of Donna Shalala over Republican Maria Elvira Salazar (though not as solid as she should have) and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell‘s stunning victory over Carlos Curbelo. That’s a bright silver lining for Ladra that we will come back to.
And Ladra’s favorite new elected, mom gone mad Cindy Polo beat back former Miami Lakes Councilman Frank Mingo in District 103. That was a tremendous upset as Polo, right, was underfunded and losing in Miami-Dade, 56 to 44 percent. The voters in Broward — because the district also includes Miramar — saved us flipping those numbers so she won 53 to 47 percent.
But locally, Polo was it. Democrats failed everywhere else.
While Miami-Dade was overwhelmingly pro Gillum and pro Nelson — they won the 305 each with about 60% of the vote — and Democrats were able to defend Sen. Annette Taddeo from a challenge by Republican superwoman Marili Cancio (next time, Marili, don’t attack with lies about Taddeo and the NRA and talk about your own achievements), they let another Senate bid die and lost several opportunities to gain Florida House seats — even letting one flip red in District 118.
Former State Rep. Robert Asencio became a one-term legislator probably because he was too busy trying to help everybody else and didn’t campaign enough to keep his own seat. Granted, it was definitely an upset surprise for Anthony Rodriguez, who lost the primary two years ago to King David “Nine Lives” Rivera, to beat him ever so slightly, 51% to 49%.
The same narrow win gave Doral Councilwoman Ana Maria Rodriguez a seat in the House, replacing Ambassador Carlos Trujillo in District 105, beating Javier Estevez by a scant 560 votes. Democrats are used to voting for Ana Maria, right, that gap was expected to be even wider, but only because the party invested zero time and money in this flippable district.
The real pain comes with what happened up north, where special interest favorite State Rep. Manny Diaz Jr. beat firefighter hero David Perez for the Senate seat in 36 vacated by Rene Garcia (who will run for county commissioner in two years).
Now we heal and rest until next year when it’s time to gear up for 2020. Maybe Democrats will figure something out between now and then.
Qualifying came and went quietly last month and we ended up with quite a few challenges in the Florida House and some interesting contests in four of the five open seats.
State Rep. Jose Oliva is the only Republican incumbent in South Florida without a challenger. Reps. Kionne McGhee, Barbara Watson, Richard Stark, Sharon Pritchett, Shevron Dion Jones, Joe Geller and Evan Jenne were also automatically re-elected without opposition, but they are Democrats in areas that are already dark blue.
There are a couple of head-to-heads. Rep. Holly Raschein (R-Key Largo) will face Steve Friedman and Rep. Robert Asencio (D-West Kendall) has a rematch, of sorts, with Anthony Rodriguez, who lost the Republican primary two years ago to former State Rep. David Rivera (who never qualified for State House 119 this year as he had threatened to, either). In another rematch in House 112, Rep. Nicholas Duran (D-Shenandoah) will face Republican Rosy Palomino again. And, next door, newly elected Rep. Javier Fernandez (D-Coral Gables) will face a guy with a similar name, Republican Javier Enriquez. Someone named Ahmed Rizwan is challenging Rep. Bryan Avila (R-Hialeah), but nobody is watching that.
Read related: Unforgivable: Jose Oliva goes unchallenged in blue wave year
And all those contests are in November, anyway, more than four months away.
In August, we have some big, fat primary ballots due to termed out reps that leave open seat opportunities that nobody wants to pass up.
In 115, where Ladra lives, we have two Democrats and four Republicans vying for former State Rep. Michael Bileca‘s seat. Jeffrey Solomon (photographed, left) will probably and should win against someone named James Schulman. This is Doc Solomon’s third or fourth run at the seat — he’s not afraid of running against an incumbent — so he is like the incumbent this time and everybody knows his name. Among the Republicans, it will either be GOP favorite Vance Aloupis or Jose Fernandez, the only two who have dropped any mail so far. Carlos Gobel and Rhonda Rebman Lopez, who dropped the Rebman from her name to sound more Hispanic and has loaned herself almost $100,000 (more on that later), are still silent but could make moves in the next couple of weeks. This seat is totally flipable. One of the five most vulnerable House seats in Miami-Dade.
Not so much so in 119, where Jeanette Nuñez exits right, and we have another four Republicans, but only one Democrat and one NPA. So, in August, we will see the battle between Juan Fernandez-Barquin, Enrique Lopez, Analeen “Annie” Martinez — daughter of Miami-Dade Commissioner Joe Martinez, (photographed with her, right) which could be why she has quite a bit of a fundraising lead (more on that later) — and Bibiana “Bibi” Potestad. The winner there, like Ladra just said, will likely take it in November because Democrat Heath Rassner seems like he doesn’t know what he’s doing, having first filed in HD 5 in the panhandle and having lost already once in the 116 race to former State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz. NPA Daniel Sotelo, however, has raised $24,455 so far and could be a factor — especially if Martinez wins and Sotelo makes the whole general campaign about dynasties. We know that works.
Read related: Republicans start lining up for 2018 state primaries, challenges
Democrats could gain one in District 103, which covers Miami Lakes and Hialeah Gardens and is vacated by Manny Diaz, Jr., a charter school no-show employee and quarry mining industry sellout who thinks he can win a senate race now (more on that later). Diaz and Oliva handpicked Miami Lakes Councilman and Oliva Cigars employee Frank Mingo to replace him. But there’s a primary with Cindy Polo, a stay at home mom inspired to run after the school shooting at Parkland against Richard Tapia, who dropped out of the Miami-Dade School Board race against the mayor’s sister-in-law after he met with CJ Gimenez, who discouraged him. Ladra can’t help but wonder if someone is encouraging him now. This is only flipable if Polo wins and yes it’s flipable (more on this race later).
The blue team could have scored again in Ambassador Carlos Trujillo‘s former district in Doral — but instead they fumbled another one. Doral Councilwoman Ana Maria Rodriguez (photographed left) is running as the sole Republican after King Nine Lives Rivera himself decided not to throw his hat in the ring this year — and it’s the first time since when that David is not on the ballot? Rodriguez, who has remained unscathed during the mud bath in Doral, is a worthy opponent even in one of the most flipable seats. Especially since the primary pits Ross Hancock, who has run in so many districts already that he hasn’t been able to build a base, against Javier Estevez, who has raised less than $1,700 since September of last year. Dems in Doral have voted for Ana Maria before. They won’t mind doing so again. This seat likely stays red. And it could have gone blue with the right candidate. The Miami-Dade Democratic Party really blew it. Again.
On the flip side of that, House District 113 — which became open when David Richardson decided he had enough of butting heads in Tallahassee and he would try to ride his first gay elected thing to Washington — has three Democrats and only one Republican who is wasting his time, because whoever wins this race in August is the next state rep. That means it’s either one of two former Miami Beach Commissioners Deede Weithorn and Michael Grieco the comeback kid, who got off probation for campaign law violations in his 2017 mayoral bid just in time to run, or “Kubs” Lalchandani, an attorney for plastic surgery centers where botched procedures have led to patient deaths whose real name is Kabir Arjan. Like Ladra said, whoever wins that primary is going to win in November say the demographics, so Republican Jonathan Parker is irrelevant. This seat will stay blue forever.
Read related: New Mayor Dan Gelber endroses Deede Weithorn for State House
Interestingly enough, there are also a couple of incumbents facing challenges from their own party:
Newly-elected State Rep. Daniel Anthony Perez (R-Westchester) — who beat Jose Mallea and some Republican lady from Broward for the seat in a special election last summer, after Jose Felix Diaz resigned to run for senate (and lost) — will face tax attorney Frank Polo, a balsero from the 1994 crisis who spent 10 months at the refugee camps for Cuban rafters at Guantanamo. That’s a GOP leaning district so whoever wins that will likely easily beat Democrat James Alexander Harden. Another lost opportunity for the blue team, who should have had a player here.
On the blue side, State Rep. Roy Hardemon faces two Democrat challengers in the primary — Joseph Beauvil and Dotie Joseph. There’s an LPF in that race also but this is a solid Democrat district. Republicans need not apply, and they didn’t.
And in 109, we have two Democrats longtime and well-known Democrats battling it out: Former State Rep. James Bush III hasn’t been able to win even a seat on the United Teachers of Dade board, so what makes him think he can beat Cedric McMinn, a political climber who worked as district assistant to State Rep. Cynthia Stafford in this very district before he became chief of staff to Miami-Dade School Board Member Dr. Dorothy Bendross-Mindingall. This election is going to be run and decided by educators (and educational interests?) so it may be worth watching.
But that was a blue seat that will stay blue. At the end of the day, the Democrats really didn’t come through with that promised blue wave — at least not in the Florida House. They could have flipped four or five seats (if you count Raschein) and will be lucky if they get even two. Let’s call it what it is: a blue trickle.
The Miami-Dade Democratic Party has big egg on their face in the wake of qualifying last week that left the one incumbent who was most important to challenge this year completely unfazed: State Rep. Jose Oliva — who brought guns to our schools, ladies and gentlemen — was reelected already without even a sigh.
Duysevi Miyar, the teacher and failed Miami-Dade School Board and one-time state House candidate who said she was going to challenge him, told her friends on Facebook last week, after she failed to do so, that she wasn’t gonna dwell on it.
“Sometimes things happen, and it hits you like a truck! I sent my qualifying documents and they didn’t make it on time. I don’t want to look back in the rear mirror. I want to look foward,” she wrote on her Facebook page eight hours after she missed the qualifying deadline June 22 and two days after she announced having been endorsed by United Teachers of Dade. “I will now focus my energies on helping my colleagues that are running. I will not lose hope! Thank you all that supported me! For this I am blessed.”
Blah blah things happen blah. Sorry not sorry but it should not have been left to the last moment or sent with someone else. Or maybe Miyar shouldn’t have been “feeling fantastic” at Disney World a day earlier, according to her Facebook addiction. Did the mouse make her late?
Read related: Florida State Rep. Jose Oliva must go — before he is speaker
But, really, it isn’t her fault. A race this important should never have been left to this flake in the first place and qualifying should have been taken care of on Day 1 by the Democratic Party, which gets all the blame.
“I’m also extremely disappointed,” Dade Dems Chair Juan Cuba texted Ladra Friday. “Sevy feels terrible.”
Sevy feels terrible? Doesn’t really seem that way from Facebook. And anyway, you should feel worse. Wasn’t this the blue wave year to make a statement? And what better statement could you have made than to take out the House Speaker? We talked about this, Juan. We agreed he was the No. 1 target.
Cuba and any other self respecting Democrat leader should feel the total weight of this epic fail for the rest of this election cycle and maybe beyond. If they hadn’t been so busy meddling in a local county election getting Eileen Higgins elected (to impact a congressional race not local issues so much), maybe they would have been able to unseat the next Speaker of the House.
Read related: Dems push full court press for Eileen Higgins in special District 5 county race
Oliva was ripe for the taking. As the architect of the vile and widely hated Marshall Program part of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas Student Safety Act, he was vulnerable. The Dems coudla shoulda ran someone else against him. Anybody would do this year. Just put Oliva with guns up on some billboards and bingo, we got ourselves a new state rep in Miami Lakes — and a new Speaker.
But noooooooo. Instead, he coasts. Like he’s done something to deserve a coast.
This is by far the biggest missed opportunity in state races that we’ve seen probably in a decade. It’s why Cuba wouldn’t call me back about it. Or text further. If some think that Miami-Dade GOP Chair Nelson Diaz should resign his seat for losing the Miami-Dade District 5 election, what does Cuba deserve for this colossal crapout?
And how can we have any confidence in anything else they do this year?
No matter how many seats they turn blue this is going to be the Dems’ legacy for 2018: Eileen Higgins for Jose Oliva.
