If ever there was a race where absentee ballots was going to make the deciding factor, it is the special shotgun wedding election in Miami-Dade’s County District 5.
Four candidates are vying to replace Bruno Barreiro, who resigned last month so he could run for Congress: His wife, Zoraida Barreiro, former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla, radio show host and former Telenovela star Carlos Gorin and Democrat activist and dark horse contender Eileen Higgins.
Election Day is on Tuesday, but it’s possible that the winner has already been decided.
As of Wednesday, there had been 6,703 ABs returned to the elections office, which is almost 30% of the 22,388 that went out. By the end of the day Friday, it will likely have surpassed the 7,088 that were returned during the last big contest in that district: 2012’s challenge to Barreiro by former State Rep. Luis Garcia. It’s only 385 ABs short. On Wednesday alone, 382 came in.
Read related: Miami-Dade special District 5 election is really a race for No. 2 on Tuesday
Sure, the Garcia vs Barreiro bout was a presidential primary and this is a shotgun wedding special election in a non presidential year that some people still don’t know is happening. But it’s the closest thing we could find to compare. There were two other nobodies running in that race, too, forcing the runoff after Barreiro failed to get 50%, even though he led ABs by about 1,500, a margin he was able to keep in the general, when it did make the difference in a 52-48 split.
In that first round in 2012, Barreiro got 3,784 absentee votes. Those are the ones that his wife — who only captured 676 ABs in the city District 3 election last year — is going after.
That same August in 2012, Alex DLP beat Zory’s brother-in-law, former State Rep. Gus Barreiro, in the Republican primary for State House 114 with 59% of the vote. In that first round, ADLP got 2,145 ABs.
You do the math.
Every campaign is going after those ABs hard. Barreiro told Ladra that voters have called her to report that people had already tried some shenanigans in Section 8 housing — hotbeds of absentee ballots, like fishing in a barrel.
Hopefully, the authorities are looking at these numbers, too, and have people in place to catch any fraud or intimidation.
 

Read Full Story

With less than a week to go, the race for No. 2 in 5 is on.
Most political observers in the 305 expect a runoff in the special shotgun wedding election for Miami-Dade commission District 5 to replace Bruno Barreiro, who resigned to run for congress. So the battle on Tuesday really becomes one for the No. 2 place finish.
And it looks like former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla is fighting newcomer activist Eileen Higgins for that spot.
Bruno’s babe, Zoraida Barreiro, is likely leading all the candidates’ internal polls. There are a few reasons for that: She’s the only Hispanic female Republican in a race centered in Little Havana and she already had a well-oiled machine warm from the Miami commission race she ran last year. Even though she lost, she likely had a good number of her core voters in the district already identified from Day One.
Read related: Special Miami-Dade Commission race has us entre un rock y un hard place
Oh, and then there’s the fact that a Barreiro hasn’t lost in this district in, well, 20 years.
That’s why you see ADLP — who has lost his last two elections (five if you count the ones he lost for his brothers) — consistently hitting Barreiro in mail pieces while Higgins is hitting ADLP, not Barreiro. Sure, she did that mail piece about rejecting dynasties, which can be applied to both. But she singled ADLP out.
“Zero achievements. High taxes. Typical politician,” it says, only in Spanish so it sounds worse. Doesn’t matter if it’s not entirely true. I mean,  ADLP did sponsor that law where everybody gets a landline phone dial tone, even if you didn’t pay your phone bill, to call 911 if you have to. Didn’t he? That’s achieving something.
The piece, with a red arrow pointing to a picture of ADLP, cites tax increases in the appropriations or worker’s compensation bills of 2008 and 2009, when ADLP was a state senator.
Read related: Another shady PAC attacks Zoraida Barreiro in county Commission race
Hector Roos, a political consultant not on anyone’s payroll in this race, says that it’s natural for Higgins to go after ADLP. Zory is going after the 50% plus one. ADLP is going after Zory. So Higgins goes after ADLP. Except Roos put it in text: “50+% > Zory > ADLP > Higgins. Think PacMan, each after their own goal.”
Supported by the Miami-Dade Democrats, which is going all out to get out the vote for the only Dem in the nonpartisan race, Higgins — who has yet to be attacked, at least publicly — could very well peel some votes from Diaz de la Portilla. The anti-Barreiro votes, anyway.
So does that mean ADLP is playing into Higgins’ hands with attacks like this one?

Read Full Story

Nothing like a little fire under your, er, feet to get those contributions coming in, eh?
Candidates in the special election for Miami-Dade Commission District 5 have less time than probably anyone in the history of special commission races to raise funds. The election is May 22. So, basically, they’ve had little more than a month.
So far, heir apparent Zoraida Barreiro, wife of former Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, who resigned abruptly March 31, is leading the pack in contributions with $55,500, more than twice the next candidate, which is not former State Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla. No, Alex comes in third behind newby candidate, Eileen Higgins, a Democrat activist with an impressive first report of $25,080.
Yeah, okay, so she loaned herself $5,000 and another $3,000 came from relatives. The donations on her campaign finance report — all filed through April 20 — also include some notable contributions from notable Democrats like former Pinecrest Mayor Cindy Lerner, former Miami-Dade Commissioner Katy Sorenson and Robert Cava, husband of Miami-Dade Commisioner Daniella Levine Cava. Notable because each of those people could raise Eileen another $10,000 each if they wanted to and they really expect her to compete.
Read related: Special Miami-Dade commission race has us entre un rock y un hard place
Higgins also has $5,000 in six bundled contributions from companies owned by or tied to Uri Benhamron and Gary Ressler. Maybe she’s not such a newby, after all.
She has also spent $1,080 on t-shirts and buttons and $2,100 on an event for senior citizens. See? She knows what she’s doing.
Dean DLP is lagging behind with $16,500, more than half of which ($9,500) is loaned to himself. So he’s actually got just $7,000 (as of April 20) in all maximum gifts, from people who believe in him, which include a wine distributor in Broward and a software company in Chicago. He also already got a $1,000 donation from a political action committee called Floridians for Strong Leaders that Ladra couldn’t find in the state or county databases. But it leads us to the most likely scenario: Alex has a PAC already or a 501C3. He likes soft money more than hard money. And there’s money that should be there. Where is all the Disney money? Where is all the lobbyist Tallahassee money? Where is all the American Nightmare money (since his brother Miguel is the lobbyist on record for the megamall)?
But Ladra looked and couldn’t find any new PACs with his name on them filed at the county or state. The Dean has Floridians for Responsible Solutions, which did collect $20,000 in February, at a time when Alex was staying in a Tallahassee Econolodge — oh, how the mighty have fallen — so he was probably lobbying something or other. But nothing obvious for this race. Not yet, that is.
So Zoraida Barreiro may truly be leading in campaign finance pole position with her $55,500. None of that is loaned to herself so it’s all from donors. Kudos Mrs. B!
But a few chunks of it are bundled, like the $5,000 from companies owned by or tied to veteran developer Sergio Pino, $4,000 from Demetrio Perez companies, $3,000 from Beach Towing and their lobbyist and $2,000 each from developer Armando Guerra and the city of Miami firefighters union.
She also has $1,000 from Balsera Communications, which makes Ladra go hmmmmm. Because CJ Gimenez, the county mayor’s favorite son, works for Freddy Balsera, who has worked for Carlos Gimenez. Wouldn’t they naturally be supporting DLP? Or is the happy love triangle over?
Zory has also spent the most through April 20, with more than $11,000 out — including almost $7,000 for a mailer and $1,000 for a ticket to a Miami-Dade Gay and Lesbian Chamber event. ADLP, meanwhile, spent $5,423.15 so far, including about $4,000 for a mailer and $850 for printing. Can’t see him going after the LGBT vote.
But with a little more than three weeks left before this bizarre election is over, one thing is certain: Mo’ money is gonna fly.
It’s flying already.

Read Full Story

Talk about being stuck between an evil rock and an evil hard place.
Voters in Miami-Dade commission district five have a short time to come to terms with the limited and poor choices they have to replace former Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, who abruptly resigned last month to run for Congress — with the intent to open the door wide for his wife to step into his shoes.
Barreiro didn’t have to make his resignation, required by the new amendment to Florida’s “resign to run” law, effective immediately. He could have made it so that it was effective later, like in August when there is already a primary planned, but that would have meant giving other potential candidates a fair shot. Doing it this way gives the missus, fresh off a loss in a city of Miami commission race, an advantage. Everybody knows Bruno resigned the way he did to help Zoraida Barreiro get a leg up, with an election machine already up and running from last year’s campaign. Notice, already, that she hits the ground with a bigger campaign account (more on that later).
Little did Bruno know, however, that former State Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla would be the evil dwarf wizard to ruin his plan for an easy peasy gimme seat.
And abra cadabra presto! It suddenly becomes a promisingly entertaining race between these two family dynasties, which have battled it out before, because, let’s face it, as awesome a candidate as Eileen Higgins may be — and the activist has an impressive first campaign report with $25,000 (more than ADLP) — she would need everybody and their mothers in Miami Beach, the Roads and Brickell to vote for her in order to make up for the high performance voters in Little Havana who are going to go with one of the Cuban Republicans, pero por supuesto.
Yeah, sure, okay, keep telling yourself this is a non-partisan race. It’s a non-partisan seat. This is Little Havana. Every race is partisan. You know somebody is going to get called a communist. My pesos convertibles are on la gringa Democrata.
So, yes, the two Hispanic Republicans with enviable name recognition have a huge lead against anybody else here. Unless Higgins can keep the ka-ching coming and gets big Dem machinery to reel in the aforementioned Brickell-South Beach sweep. It’s not an unreasonable request. Local Democrats, which outnumber Republicans in Miami-Dade but have lagged behind in municipal races, have made no secret about the fact that they have been recruiting for county and city seats, including the county mayoral race. Couldn’t they at least find a Hispanic Dem for this? Former Congressman Joe Garcia‘s name was floated but Ladra suspects he’s holding out for the 2020 mayoral matrix (more on that later).
Dean DLP has beaten a Barreiro before. In 2012, he won the Republican primary to go back to the Florida House against Gus Barreiro, Bruno’s estranged brother. But then he lost the general election to Jose Javier Rodriguez, who beat his bigger and better brother Miguel just last year to become a Senator. Then Alex lost a Senate primary out in Kendall against Jose Felix Diaz — 58% to 26%, beating Lorenzo Palomares by less than 10 points — who ultimately lost to Annette Taddeo in the general.
In between, he helped both brothers lose elections of their own, got on board a medical marijuana advocacy group and started to write legislation, flirted with running for Miami commission — or maybe he was just threatening us — and now he has landed in this commission race. God help us. While Ladra still thinks ADLP has a brilliant political mind, it is a brilliant and evil political mind, full of paranoid conspiracy theories and sinister plot twists. And his grudges are legendary. If he is elected, se van a pagar muchas cuentas. And the American Nightmare Mall, for which is brother is a lobbyist, will get whatever it wants.
Read related: Alex Diaz de la Portilla will tell us how we can smoke pot
But it could happen, ladies and gentlemen. This could be the comeback story of the decade. Even without the backing from the likes of Miami Commissioner Joe Carollo and Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez — ADLP is part of the mayor’s friends and extended family plan now — he was already a formidable candidate. The Dean loves to campaign and he’s good at it. Better than most people Ladra knows. Better ‘an anybody, maybe. It’s scary good. Did I mention he loves it?
God help us.
On the other hand, Zoraida Barreiro is said to be the smartest Barreiro — though that’s not saying a lot. She’s also a woman, but that can play against her in the misogynistic Cubano viejo crowd, believe it or not. The best thing she’s got going is the political machinery, still oily and warm from recent use and contacts with the bulk of Cuban American absentee voters through her home health care business. High performance Miami voters saw her at their homes just a few months ago — while ADLP was knocking on 17 doors, y cuidado con eso, in Westchester, of all places — and they’ll remember her. Him? Didn’t his brother just lose a Senate seat to some Harvard arrepentido amigo de Obama?
Zoraida has also been able to garner the most early financial support. Do donors, usually the government insiders, know something we don’t?
But, while I try not to judge a person by their spouse, she’s going to have to do more than base her campaign almost entirely on her marital status, which she did last time. That’s not healthy. And it’s for nothing, because it didn’t help her even get to second place in the District 4 city commission race, where she landed third behind someone named Alfie Leon. Exactly. Now she’s going up against a real name. And while Alex may not attack her directly — because se ve mal for a caballero, which he pretends to be, to attack a female and old Cuban voters don’t like that — you can bet he’ll beat up on Bruno. And the missus gets the muck by marriage.
The fourth candidate is a La Poderosa radio show host who hasn’t raised any money and is the third Republican behind the two big names anyway, so he’s not getting blue votes or red votes. Carlos Garin is wasting his time and getting himself a headache for no good reason. At least Higgins has a tiny sliver chance if the two families split the GOP votes and every single registered Democrat votes for her.
One can hope, can’t one? Lo ultimo que se pierde es la esperanza.

Read Full Story

Now that the mayoral election next month is all but a technicality, the real question is who Commissioner Francis Suarez, our next city of Miami mayor, wants to have serve on the dais with him. He’s been non-commmital because he wanted to focus on his own race. But now that he’s got no opposition, not really, he can put his considerable weight behind the right candidate.
Too bad he still won’t tell us. Now, we can only guess.
“I’m not supporting anyone right now. I get along pretty much with everybody,” Suarez told Ladra this week, adding that no mayor or elected supported him when he first ran in 2009 even though he started out 25 points behind Manolo Reyes, who is leading all the polls for the seat now.
“And I liked it that way. I didn’t even use my middle name, which is the same as my father’s,” said Suarez, a chip off the old block that is Miami-Dade Commissioner Xavier Suarez, who was also the first Cuban mayor of Miami. “I wanted to rise on my own merits, my own ideas.”
The flip side of the coin is that he doesn’t want to piss anybody off.
“As mayor, you have a responsibility to create a coalition on the commission and set the tone and get things done. If you pick the wrong side, you may end up offending somebody and shooting yourself in the foot,” he said. “I want to hit the ground running. My responsibility isn’t to the candidates, it’s to the residents.”
But just who does Baby X think he’s fooling? Some political observers say he’s being a passive aggressive pussy who is secretly helping candidates but doesn’t have the cojones to publicly endorse them. “Like always, el tira le piedra y esconda la mano,” said one Miami voter and political junkie. It’s a Cuban saying that literally means he throws a stone and hides his hand but actually means he starts some kind of trouble and avoids the blame.
Read related story: Francis Suarez says definite maye to Miami mayoral race
Ladra, too, thinks that he does, indeed, have a great deal of interest in the two commission races (especially in one). Why else would he spend money polling the commission races along with his own race and issues every time? And it is very difficult for Ladra to believe that he and his dad and his political allies in Coral Gables and beyond would just pass on this opportunity to silently grow allies and build their machinery, especially trying to help the candidates that Suarez knows will be friendlier and happier to work with him instead of on their own agenda.
Yeah, Joe Carollo, I’m talking about you. The former Miami mayor and Doral city manager likes to be a star and the protagonist and could battle Suarez for attention and control of the commission.
Despite the fact that the two candidates are apparently sharing Steve Marin as campaign consultant, the two families sorta hate each other. Ladra can’t beieve that’
Suarez wants to sit on the dais with the guy who basically unseated his father from office in 1997 for absentee voter fraud that may not have been X’s doing (it was former City Commissioner Humberto Hernandez and former State Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla, who las malas lenguas say is helping Carollo now). The election was thrown out and a second vote put Carollo in office. So, no, Ladra does not believe that Suarez isn’t actively working against Crazy Joe. You can’t trusth him because he could turn on you at any minute, like he has on almost everybody, even calling a press conference to stab you in the back. Just ask former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre. We have to believe that Baby X is ABC — Anyone But Carollo.
Read related story: Crazy Joe Carollo adds twist to crazy Miami Commission race
Athough maybe not Tommy Regalado, son and namesake of the current mayor, tampoco. There’s no real love loss between these families either. Maybe also because Suarez had the nerve to try to run against Mayor Tomas Regalado four years ago before he had to abandon the campaign after several missteps. Suarez just got rid of one Regalado, you think he wants to be saddled with another? And compete for media darling status with another block chip?
That leaves us in District 3 with Zoraida Barreiro, the wife of Miami-Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, or one of the other three guys who don’t seem to stand a chance next to the legacy candidates. Zory, as she is known, makes sense because her husband is a colleague of the new mayor’s father. This allegiance has legs. Also, Miami-Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro has not lost one election. Not for State Rep. Not for county commissioner.
There’s also a small possibility that Suarez likes Alfie Leon, the former chief policy advisor, for Commissioner Frank Carollo. But Ladra is making that hypothesis only because someone in his camp has defended Leon in private and Coral Gables Commissioner Vince Lago, a top Suarez ally, is backing Leon openly.
Still, it’s practically a toss up between the other two.
One might think Baby X is helping Reyes, who he beat by 260 votes when first elected in 2009, since he is leading all the polls, after all. Suarez has reportedly shared the polls with people to help Reyes raise campaign cash. And also allegedly lent Reyes his professional fundraiser — Brian Goldmeier reportedly made some calls on Reyes’ behalf.
But, on the other hand, Manolo is tight with the Regalados so there’s that little snag. And Baby X has been seen with Ralph Rosado at some events and neighborhood homeowner association meetings. Rosado has also shown that he can raise more money, which could be important to Suarez– or both Suarezes — in the future.
Maybe he’s hedging his bets. Does that still count as passive aggressive?

Read Full Story

Both Zoraida Barreiro and Joe Carollo filed their first campaign finance report in their race for the same city of Miami commission seat and they must be a tad disappointed. 

Sure, $14,000 (Barreiro) and $10,000 (Carollo) is respectable — for any novice, first-time no-name. But Barreiro is wife of Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, who must not have tapped his donor pool yet (he raised $140,000 last year before he ended up with no opposition). Maybe he’s not 100% on board? And Joe Carollo is the former mayor of Miami, a former city manager of Doral and a buddy of Carlos Gimenez — or at least a member of his 2016 campaign team, at $6,000 a month for a total of $144,000 billed to the mayor’s PAC.

You think he could loan himself more than the $100 he reported earlier this month.

Read related story: Crazy Joe Carollo adds twist to crazy Miami commission race

But both of them did have significant bundling in their reports, as measly as they were. Half of Barreiro’s contributions come from companies owned by former School Board Member Demetrio Perez and $3,000 came from Lanzo Construction. Carollo got $3,000 from Robert Patino, $2,500 from the guy who owns Dade Outdoor Advertising and $2,000 from Norman Braman and his wife, which is kind of weird since Braman supported Raquel Regalado against Gimenez.

But these two aren’t the lowest scoring candidates in what is already a clusterbunch race with seven candidates so far, and qualifying isn’t even ’til September. This is the open seat in District 3, being vacated by Commissioner Frank Carollo, Joe’s baby bro, who is termed out and, reportedly, running for mayor, though he hasn’t filed any paperwork yet. The other candidates and their paultry little piggy banks are:

• Alex Dominguez, with $4,650, has been fundraising for almost two years.
• Olidia “Lee” Hernandez loaned herself $1,000, but she only just filed on Jan. 27.
• Alfonso M. Leon has raised $36,978 — a lot of it in $27 and $40 and $100 and $200 checks.
• Miguel C. Soliman has raised $27,530 — all of it but $1,000 in the first month reported, May.
• Daniel Suarez, who filed in December, hasn’t raised a dime but just loaned himself $55.

Soliman is the only one with any evidence of bundling, which are multiple donations from the same person — using relatives or different corporations — to maximize impact (and access or investment). He got $6,000 from Luis Garcia, who owns Adonel Concrete and several real estate holding companies.

Read related story: Mr. and Mrs. Sarnoff give up seat to Ken Russell, sans runoff

As has been pointed out before, money is not necessarily a sign of who is going to win the election. Commissioner Ken Russell beat a far better financed Teresa Sarnoff in 2015. But it does tell you who has more ability to get their message out. And if the donations come from residents rather than corporations, it could also indicate voter support.

Of course, it’s early yet. And we still don’t know if there are any PACs involved. Only one is listed on the city’s website. But A Stronger Miami, which filed documents in October, has not raised a dime.

So its doing worse than even any candidate.