We all know that Frank Artiles plans to run for the Senate against incumbent Dwight Bullard.

The question is “Why?” He has another term in the House left so why would he risk a sure thing for a seat that that went to President Barack Obama by 7 points in 2012?

Well, because redistricted seat 40 may be more Democrat, bu it is also waaaaay more Hispanic, with a 74 percent Latino vote pool. And it includes a little of the area once represented by Sen. Anitere Flores, who promised to move after she and Bullard were drawn into the same district and will instead run for a newly created open seat (District 39; because the numbers play musical chairs, too).

That’s why former State Rep. Ana Rivas Logan was in Tallahassee last month, talking to folks about running in that seat against Artiles. Bullard knows he’s vulnerable. Several sources confirmed that Bullard has been approached about stepping down and letting Rivas Logan take on Artiles. And they all say he same thing: He has an emotional attachment to the seat, which belonged to his mother, the late Sen. Larcenia Bullard, who died in 2013. He sort of inherited her seat in 2012 (though he beat off four other Dems, including former State Reps. Ron Saunders and James Bush, III) like he inherited his dad’s House seat before that.

It’s a pride thing. And it could become a black thing. His has been an African American legislative seat at least since 2002, only one of two black Senate seats in the 305.

Bullard, who replaced Annette Taddeo as chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, might think he has a good chance to defend himself in a district that voted last time for Obama by 54 percent. But Obama is not on the ballot this year and black voters may not turn out as heavily for Hillary. Everyone is worried about that. And half of the district’s Democrat voters are Hispanics anyway. Artiles could peel some off there. Most likely, however, he’ll grab a bunch of the Hispanic independents, enough to make a difference.

The newly redistricted seat represents South Miami Heights, West Perrine, Richmond Heights, Fairway Heights, Howard, Country Walk and West Kendall. It also includes portions of the Westchester, Cutler Bay, South Miami and Coral Gables.

There’s also this: Artiles won his old district (which used to be Bullard’s old House district) which went to Obama with 51% in 2012, by double digits against a Democrat in 2014 — albeit a Democrat nobody and on an off, non-presidential year. But Gov. Rick Scott only got 49 percent of the vote there, so Artiles got 8 percent more votes than the Republican at the top of the ticket.

Trust me, Artiles did not give up his likely re-election to the House for his last term with full tenure if he didn’t have a poll that shows what consultants call a path to victory for a coveted Senate seat.

He has also shown a better knack for raising campaign funds, accumulating a total of almost $800,000 between his campaign and his PAC, Veterans for Conservative Principles, since 2012. Bullard raised $85,000 for his 2012 race.

Is defending the Bullard legacy worth the risk of losing a Democratic seat in the Senate? Especially against Magilla Gorilla? A man who is best known for punching a college kid in the face, pushing a law that regulates bathroom use and living outside his district? That’s what state party leaders are grappling with.

Rivas Logan told Ladra that yes, she had, indeed been in Tally last month talking to interested parties (read: the Democratic Party) about running again, but she said there were a number of seats discussed — and for both 2016 and 2018, which is conveniently when she retires as assistant principal at Robert Morgan Technical High, where she prepares seniors for college and life after high school.

“All the pieces line up for me in 2018,” said the one-time Miami-Dade School Board member, coyly leaving the door open for Bullard to bail: “However, should something become available that is a good fit, I would seriously consider it.”

There it is. She’s just waiting for Dwight to make a difficult decision.

Meanwhile, the party keeps grooming her for something. That’s why you see Rivas Logan commenting on immigration policy on MSNBC and Spanish-language TV or why she delivered a message to the audience at the Democratic debate at Miami-Dade earlier this month. That choice — she spoke right after Florida Democrati Party Chair Allison Tant and before DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz — says something about their confidence in and hope for her, because she’s really only been a Democrat for about five minutes.

Last time, Rivas Logan held office, she was a Republican House rep. But a falling out over immigration policy and the fact that the party went with State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz against her when they were drawn into the same district sort of put the ice on that.

Wouldn’t it be just so Florida and like the 305 if Diaz, who is termed out next cycle, faced Rivas Logan again in a 2018 Senate race?

I said it first.

Even though the challenge was looming, we knew it was coming for sure when Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla (R-Coral Gables) and State Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez (D-Little Havana) were invited as guests to speak about the just-ended legislative session on WPLG’s This Week in South Florida — and it turned into sort of a debate.

Especially when Rodriguez made a point to respond to something the senior DLP said. “If I can touch on the gun bills, just very briefly,” J-Rod was quick to say. Then DLP responded to J-Rod’s response.

Where have we heard that kind of back and forth before? Oh yeah: At debates.

Ladra called it a showdown preview on Twitter. Yes, watchdogs tweet (find me at @newschica). And I was right: A day later, J-Rod — who had already said he was thinking about it — officially announced last week he was running for Senate against the three-term incumbent, possibly providing us with the second big partisan showdown in the county (the first being the congressional race rematch between U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) and former Congressman Joe Garcia (D), who Ladra predicts will win the primary against what’s her name).

Keyword: Possibly.

Because Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, “the flagship” of the political brothers, is seen as the most reasonable and moderate of the DLP clan. He is not the typical Republican sheep. As chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee refused to hear several ugly immigration bills and the the three open carry gun laws in the legislature this year, effectively killing them all (like he did last year), becoming an NRA target (they sent letters and emails to donors, attacking him).

He went against his own party “because I’m a free thinker,” he told Ladra. “I learned that from my grandfather. You have to listen to everyone. But when it comes time to make a decision, you have to make a decision on its merits.”

He has consistently been an advocate for public labor, who love him. He’s been a defender of education. Teachers love him. When he was a Miami-Dade Commissioner, he created the two thirds majority needed to move the UDB line and impact fee monies for schools from developers. This year, he secured $2 million in state funds for the proposed Underline linear park under the Metrorail tracks. Environmentalists love him, too.

Where is J-Rod going to get his votes?

A shining star who rose to public office from the ranks of public legal service, speaking on behalf of the most disenfranchised for years, Rodriguez could be disappointed with the amount of party crossover he might see in this race. I’m not the only one who likes both of them. A bunch of bilateral supporters are going to be hard pressed to pick between the two.

While he hasn’t passed anything important and most of his sponsored bills die in committee or fail (he is in the minority, after all), he did help stop what he deemed bad legislation at the finance and tax committee,  helped steer $286 million more into education funding and has championed the cause of hundreds of students left in limbo when Dade Medical College closed its doors abruptly last year. He also has a knack for social media, bringing attention to blue party issues like public transportation and minimum wage, off which he lived for a week, sharing his experiences on twitter. He was also one of the first to denounce the proposed bed tax giveaway to the Miami Dolphins in 2013 (God bless him).

“I know what my campaign is going to look like. I’m going to work very hard to let the voters know that I’ve been working for them already,” Rodriguez told Ladra.

So, despite DLP’s hefty experience or any perceived advantage Rodriguez may have on a presidential year in a district that gave Obama a seven-point lead in 2012, this is not going to be a cakewalk for either of them.

“Obama is not on the ballot,” Diaz de la Portilla told Ladra. And while many political observers do credit J-Rod’s initial win against his opponent’s brother, former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla, to that presidential wave,  J-Rod also defended himself quite well against Daniel Diaz-Leyva and the weight of the Republican Party in 2014.

Read related story: Jose Javier Rodriguez hangs on despite Danny Boy’s dough

And that was against half a million dollars.

No, this isn’t payback. J-Rod doesn’t seem the type to hold a grudge. After all, he serves as vice chair of the Miami-Dade Legislative Delegation, where Danny Boy’s political godfather, State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz (R-Kendall), is chair.

Redistricting, Rodriguez said, gave him an opportunity to have more impact.

“I can accomplish more in the Senate. It’s a more collegiate body. There’s a lot more I could do,” he said.

DLP says he can do more for the constituents as a member of the majority that can garner bipartisan support for his measures. He passed a bill with unanimous support this year that expands the court’s authority to use mental health and substance abuse programs for youth offenders and veterans.

Ladra isn’t happy about this match, because she likes both candidates and thinks they are both worthy public servants. And it’s not like we have a lot of those just lying around.

And I’m not alone. Like I said, these two share supporters who are now going too have to choose — and it’s not a fun thing to do.

It’s too bad one of them doesn’t run against some of the real lame-os in Tallahassee, and there are plenty of those. But unlike some people (read: Frank Artiles) neither of these guys will lie about where they live to run for office.

So the only thing left to do is look forward to the next, the real debate — with both excitement and trepidation.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Hillary Clinton, who Ladra has absolutely no love for, is going to go down in the books as the Democratic Party nominee elected president with the most Republican votes in U.S. history.

Not because of people like me. Yeah, the self-admitted Marco Rubio fangirl is going to have to swallow hard and vote for this lying weasel in November, but I’m an independent voter with no party affiliation. So that means people think I’m a Democrat already.

No, it will be because of people like my mother and father and their friends. These are staunch Republicans, ultra conservative Cuban-American GOP loyalists who remember the good old Ronald Reagan days with longing and voted for Sen. Marco Rubio, who came in a distant embarrassing second in his home state of Florida. My godmother has never voted for a Democrat in her life. But they say they will vote for Hillary precisely because of Donald Trump.

They are the poster children of the #NeverTrump movement.

Ted Cruz might not get their vote either, but they can ignore him. They won’t bother to vote for anyone in that hypothetical matchup. They cannot, however, ignore Trump. If The Donald ends up on the ballot in November, they’re going with Hillary.

My mom! With Hillary! Only someone like Trump could do that! Shoot, dare I say they could vote for Obama if they had to, against Trump?

Okay, it’s a really unscientific poll. Or not even a poll, actually. But they are not alone. On Facebook, on twitter and on the radio shows, Republicans are saying they would rather vote for the state department liar than the business liar.

Exit polls show that 9 percent of GOP-registered voters in Michigan said they would vote for Hillary over Trump. The number grew to 10 percent of the Republicans in Ohio. Not that it should come as a surprise, but more Republican women view Trump more negatively than positively, according to Gallup. And in a Washington Post/ABC News poll this month, Trump loses the women’s vote by 21 points.

Megan McArdle, a columnist at BloombergView.com, tried an interesting experiment. She asked die-hard Republicans to hit her up on Twitter if they were #NeverTrump and would vote for Hillary or Bernie Sanders — and to tell her why. She got a barrage of emails from everyone, from young and old, from Southern Baptists and evangelicals, from nurses and school teachers to soldiers in the military and people who worked in Republican administrations. And she shared them with us.

Some excerpts:

“I personally am not willing to sacrifice my country and more specifically the dignity of the office that represents it, just to make a point.”

“It’s not just that I don’t think he’s conservative. It’s that as president I think he’d be quite capable of doing anything, except governing reasonably well.”

“It may be true that the country I love and fought for has gone over the cliff and is willing to elect a narcissistic con-man as president, but I will never, under any circumstances, put my name to its death warrant.”

And those are some of the more mild ones.

So maybe Trump has divided the Republican Party, but he seems to have united the nation. Because I predict the biggest margin and largest crossover ever in 2016 for Hillary Clinton.

God help us.

Ladra loves police body cameras. I mean, what’s not to like?

We have the technology to capture the cops interacting with victims and culprits and it gives us a glimpse into both how hard their job is and how some of them may abuse their role. It serves as a deterrent to both the officer, who might now count to ten, and the mouthy drunk that might not want to be on the late night news getting into it with a cop. There’s no reason not to use them if you can. Body cams are a good thing — when used properly and the video is stored in such a way that it is accessible to whoever wants it.

Heck, I wish we could put them on everybody. Firefighters. Meter readers. Procurement officers. Electeds. In fact, can someone please sponsor an ordinance where a lobbyist has to put one on as she or he enters County Hall? Commissioner Levine Cava?

But at $1 million a year one has to wonder if this is a police priority our budget can afford. Especially right now, when we have shootings almost every other day and another child killed about every week on our streets.

Body cameras won’t stop the shootings. They make for good headlines, however. Miami-Dade is now the largest department nationwide to use body cameras. It makes us look good. But only on the surface.

Read related story: Body cams are swell — but put one on the mayor, too

Miami-Dade Commissioners, at the direction of Mayor Carlos Gimenez, voted last week to spend more than $1 million a year on body cameras for our police officers for an approved total of $5.4 million over the next five years. This is mostly for storage and maintenance since the cameras themselves aren’t that expensive. At $300 a pop (which is high, because the county ought to be getting a bulk rate), the 1,500 cameras would cost $450,000. So that’s $4.5 million or so for storage and maintenance? Doesn’t that seem high?

What did commissioners do about the crime that is creeping into our neighborhoods and the shootings that have become commonplace? How much went to increased patrols or a special task force to focus on this youth gun crime? Absolutely nada.

Oh, sure, there is talk about mentoring programs and that’s as good as body cameras — it won’t stop the bleeding going on now. Especially since the Florida legislature just passed a law that requires the department to have a policy before it implements the program.

Read related story: Politicos want to shield body cam footage from us

Only one thing will put a stop to the violence that is not just limited to Liberty City and Miami Gardens. There was a shooting the other day at The Falls, fam. The freaking Falls!

We need more police on the street. We need more experienced police to stay in the department. We need specialized units like the gang unit and the robbery intervention detail to be restored so that they can stop these things from happening.

And we need a mayor who will recognize that he made a mistake in 2014 when he dismantled all the specialized units, a mayor who will acknowledge that, yes, there has been a spike in violent crime and a mayor who will take responsibility for it and make real changes that do make a difference in addressing the needs we have right now.

Just as the Dade County Youth Fair is set to start its annual three-week carnival on March 17, FIU has a new champion for it’s delayed and struggling plans to expand onto property currently occupied in a rock solid lease by the Dade County Youth Fair and Expo: The student government president at the Tamiami Campus.

Alexis Calatayud, a senior political science major in the Green School of International and Public Affairs, has started a petition at Change.org, asking Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez and members of the county commission to support the expansion of Modesto Maidique Campus to adjacent county lands.

Calatayud says she wants students to understand the importance of the expansion for them, future students and the South Florida community. But she did not return emails from Ladra and the language reads like she got help from some of the university’s PR staff:

“Dear Panthers,

On a November 2014 referendum, the Miami-Dade community demonstrated support for FIU’s expansion onto the land adjacent to the Modesto A. Maidique Campus by voting “Yes.”

Now, more than a year later, it is imperative that we move forward with the plan to find the Fair a new home.

I am an example of the impact FIU has on South Florida. As a Miami native, FIU has allowed me to stay close to home while providing me with countless leadership opportunities.  FIU has given me invaluable tools to pursue a successful career and I will graduate with no debt. Other members of my family also have made the most of their FIU educations – my mother and brother are all FIU alumni.

FIU gives similar opportunities to thousands every year – we have 55,000 students and 200,000 alumni. These are our community’s leaders, engineers, doctors and entrepreneurs. FIU educates our community’s top teachers, employs thousands, and is helping to transform Miami into a cultural hub.

FIU’s success is our community’s success. FIU’s expansion would mean more and better jobs and educational opportunities.

As president of the FIU Student Government Association, I invite you to join me in asking Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez and members of the County Commission to please take action. Some 30 sites have been studied and the South Dade site really works. Relocating the Fair to South Dade is good for FIU and is good for the South Dade community, which has already expressed support and excitement about bringing the fair to their area.”

But it’s not good for The Fair, say the Dade County Fair and Expo folks. Fair CEO Robert Hohenstein has already said that the South Dade — a county-owned property near the Homestead Air Reserve Base right off the Florida Turnpike and 272nd Street — is a no go.

Read related story: FIU’s bully battle vs. Youth Fair keeps costing us plenty

In a recent letter to the editor published in the South Dade Newsleader, he chided local electeds for falling for FIU’s trick — which is to build pressure on the county to break the rock solid lease and evict The Fair.

“FIU is free to spend its money as it deems fit, and a major investment in South Dade would be welcomed news for the area. But the plan is based on a false premise – that The Youth Fair is a willing participant. A move to South Dade would be corporate suicide for The Youth Fair and its exposition business, a fact FIU knows very well, since it co-sponsored and co-paid for an economic study that showed the financial devastation The Youth Fair would suffer in South Dade. FIU also knows the board of the Miami-Dade County Fair & Exposition Inc. twice voted unanimously against such a move,” Hohenstein said.

“It is shameful that FIU persists in promoting the false plan. And it is disheartening to realize that city commissions such as in Homestead and Florida City are falling prey to this ruse whose only purpose is to pressure Miami-Dade County into The Youth Fair from Tamiami Park so FIU can take over the land.”

An email blast sent last week has this headline:”Moving to Homestead? No.” And follows up with: “Don’t be fooled by the rhetoric from FIU about the Youth Fair’s future.”

The email says the South Dade site would cut revenue by $3.2 million a year and ultimately shut down The Fair.

So why is everyone honed in on this location? Who owns property nearby? Because Ladra believes the county is getting ready to present their case to a judge and position this property as an equal to the one that the Fair now occupies, which is required by the lease.

Read related story: Carlos Gimenez ‘I’d break The Fair’s lease if FIU pays’

It’s the only one of 26 possible sites that Mayor Gimenez gave details on in his Feb. 17 letter to Gov. Rick Scott, asking for state funding in this year’s budget (our public money) for FIU’s expansion dreams — even though there is no agreement for a relocation yet.

“The funding is essential to making FIU’s expansion possible and I am as determined as ever to bring this project to conclusion,” Gimenez wrote. Shouldn’t his asks be for some county needs instead?

And does that mean he is going to kick The Fair out and let them take him to court? Gimenez has asked FIU to guarantee they would pay the legal costs of any court fight. Is he trying to get them state funds for that?

Ladra has an idea. Why doesn’t the county give FIU that South Dade land for a satellite campus? Wouldn’t it better serve the community in South Dade — which the mayor constantly ignores — to have the school there? Classes closer to home for many South Dade youth. Jobs in an area that needs them.

Gimenez said in his letter to Scott that the project is “so critically important to increasing educational opportunities and economic development for our state.” But wouldn’t it be better for increasing educational opportunities and providing economic development if the expansion were in South Dade?

Why is nobody asking that question?

My favorite part of the letter to Gov. Scott is where Gimenez lies yet again about the 2014 referendum in which voters simply gave FIU the same waiver of use on park land IF AND WHEN they ever expanded to the fairgrounds. He actually says that he is committed to “working cooperatively and creatively with FIU and The Fair on a site solution that addresses the needs of all parties, and ensures that we fulfill the terms of the November 2014 referendum.”

That was the whole reasoning behind the ballot question, which was obviously premature since there is no move or relocation plan on the horizon.

It’s too bad that the mayor takes these very same voters and ignores them when it comes to the referendum for the Pets’ Trust Initiative.