Among the House races in South Florida this November, one of the most important, despite the little media attention, is the race to replace State Rep. Manny Diaz, Jr. in House District 103.
Why is it important? Because Diaz, the GOP mafia’s pick to run for the Senate seat vacated by Rene Garcia, is one of would be State Rep. Jose Oliva‘s yes men and speaker vote. That seat needs to stay firmly an Oliva vote if he is to have the mighty power next session. How loyal does that person have to be? So much so that Oliva handpicked his very own employee, Miami Lakes Councilman Frank Mingo, an Oliva Cigars supply chain manager, to run for the seat.
He is literally a lackey.
Democrat Cindy Polo, a mom on a mission, could have a real chance against Mingo in the year of the woman on a supposed blue wave. So of course they threw a challenger against her in the primary. This way they can attack her and force her to burn her money in an August contest.
Enter Richard Tapia, the possible plantidate who came out of nowhere. Well, actually, he came out of Kendall, allegedly moving into a Hialeah apartment in the district one day before qualifying on June 20.  Hmmmm. It certainly could look like he moved in just for the race. Or maybe “moved in” is better.
At least he didn’t just become a Democrat. He did that two years ago.
Tapia was a Republican two years ago when he announced a run for a Miami-Dade School Board seat in the Little Havana district. Actually, he’s bounced back and forth a few times but he’s been a Republican more than he’s been a Democrat by at least 12 years.
He seems to have a hard time making up his mind. Tapia was even registered as everything for some time in 2016. He last switched from Republican to Democrat in December of 2016, four months after he dropped out of the school board race. But he went from Democrat to Republican in February that same year and from No Party Affiliation to Democrat in January, only 12 days before that. Talk about indecision. Tapia had switched to NPA from Republican in 2014. But he had been Republican since 2002, when he switched from Democrat in August of that year.
Whew. Yeah, I’m dizzy, too.
Tapia’s bio on Bloomberg says he has provided political strategies to the insurance industry as well as to “candidates seeking public office, achieving the elections of various state representatives, a U.S. Congressman, and a U.S. Senator.” Ladra wonders who those are. Bet they’re Republican. Someone should ask him, because he wouldn’t talk to me. And is that the kind of public servant Miami Lakes wants?
He was also Miami-Dade Commissioner Esteban Bovo‘s appointment to the planning advisory board. Bovo, a died-in-the-wool Republican, is pretty tight with Oliva and would not likely appoint someone who would go against Oliva’s handpicked Diaz successor.
What seems far more likely is that Tapia is a plant, put there solely to smear Cindy and make her spend her money so she is at a disadvantage when it comes to the general. And if Tapia actually wins the primary, which is unlikely but possible, he will not try very hard to win the general. In fact, he may drop out. It wouldn’t be his first time.
This is the same guy who withdrew from the School Board race in 2016 after getting nudged by lobbyist and mayoral son CJ Gimenez, who met with him in a restaurant to talk him out of it. That’s because CJ’s aunt and the mayor’s sister in law, Maria Teresa Rojas, was running for the same seat. How much you wanna bet that Tapia was talked into this race?
Read related: Beware of Carlos Gimenez Jr. at Gables school board forum
Tapia wouldn’t talk about it. Reached over the weekend, he referred all questions to his campaign manager, Absentee Ballot Queen Sasha Tirador, who is known to work principally for Republican candidates. In fact, Ladra cannot remember a single Democrat candidate Sasha has worked with.
Of course, Tirador could just be into it to go against her old partner, David Custin, who works for Mingo and all of Oliva’s flying monkeys. It’s not like she hasn’t been driven by a grudge before.
It didn’t help Tapia’s case that he hung up on Ladra and answered a texted question about his P&Z appointment with “have a great day.” Tapia doesn’t even have to drop out if he wins the primary. He could throw it. He could just suspend his campaign or do something really stupid on purpose to hand Mingo the election. Or he could let it be known that he doesn’t really live in Hialeah.
Meanwhile, Polo seems like the real deal, another mom who got woke by the Parkland school shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas Senior High in February. She filed her first paperwork for the seat in March.
“I’m not running because it was part of a career plan,” she told Ladra. “It was a necessity.”
Polo, who used to do communications for the MDX Authority, helped found the Northwest Dade Democratic Club almost two years ago and hoped to find someone else to step up. After Parkland, she saw Mingo’s name all by itself and decided that the someone was staring at her in the mirror. She was encourage by many, including former Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, who gave $500 to her campaign in May, according to state campaign finance reports.
Tapia, she said, called her and asked her to move her race to District 105. Polo said nana nina.
“He might not know what Hialeah girls are made of.”
Polo — who is involved in the area residents’ anti-blasting movement — wants to represent a community she says has been ignored for too long. “No one’s ever knocked on our doors, no one’s ever talked to us. I’ve lived here all my life so I know,” she said. “I want to give a voice to the area.”
See? Not a plant.
 

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The congressional primary in dielection is too important. So I did something I thought I would never do. I registered as a Democrat.
Ladra has been a deep purple, card-carrying, proud NPA all her adult life. It started as a pragmatic choice by a journalism student who did not want to be linked to either extreme agenda. It ended up being perfectly suited to me since I found issues and problems in both parties that I was just unable to swallow. So I stayed NPA and proudly proclaimed it from every rooftop.
This year, I have already vowed to vote blue up and down the ballot because of Parkland. Yes, a school shooting at a Broward high school that took 17 lives did what LGBT rights and immigration battles, climate change and taxation and energy priorities and even the systematic privatization of what should be public education couldn’t do — it turned me into a single issue voter. After watching the Florida legislature debate gun control in the wake of those deaths at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High, I had no choice. Those creeps who said the MSD students didn’t know what they were talking about and put guns in our schools, they need to be voted out. We need a blue majority in Florida.
So, yeah, I am going to vote for the Democratz in November in both my House race (Jeff Solomon has my vote Aug. 28) and Senate District 40.
But I couldn’t wait for November when it comes to congressional District 27, because there is only one Democrat candidate in the primary on Aug. 28 that I know can beat the eventual Republican winner, who is apparently going to be Maria Elvira Salazar — and that’s Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez.
I can hear some of you now saying that I am only doing this because I am a paid campaign staffer. That’s ridiculous. Do the people who worked for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez only support her because they work for her? Do the people on Marco Rubio’s staff secretly wish they could support someone else but are there only because of their paychecks? Shame on you. If you think my vote is worth any amount of money, or that I would change my voter profile from my entire life, you are delusional. This is something I treasure. Nobody can pay for my vote. You have to earn it. And Kristen has. I was always going to vote for her. Rosen Gonzalez only invited me to be part of Team Kristen because I’ve supported her for the three years she’s been in office. Heck, I supported her candidacy two years prior to that, before she withdrew from the 2013 city elections on the Beach. So, yes, I am paid to help her with her messaging and media. But no, I am not paid to support her. I do that for free and happily because of who she is.
What is it about her? A few things.
A single mom, like me, she is the only candidate in the Dem #FL27 primary who has a full time job and lives paycheck to paycheck, like me. She recycles obsessively and drives a hybrid. She walks the walk, not just talks the talk. She is a teacher, with ten years experience as a professor at Miami Dade College and a real intense desire to make community college free for everyone, so higher education becomes a right and not a privilege. She has passed legislation to raise the minimum wage and protect hotel workers from sexual harassment, so she took on the hotel industry in a city that depends on hotels. Sure, she is often unpolished and sometimes says things off the top of her head that she later regrets. I kinda like that about her. Because at least she says something. Her answers are not pat rehearsed and practiced talking points written by someone else. Trust me, sometimes I wish she would stick to my script. She can’t. It is in her nature to be natural. She is the real deal.
She has also been campaigning the longest, having announced a bid for that seat before Ileana Ros-Lehtinen retired. So she was willing to challenge the congresswoman on her own turf. That takes guts. She has something slightly resembling gumption. Nobody else had the nerve. They only jumped in after it was an open seat, which makes them opportunists of a sort.
Most importantly, Kristen is the only candidate in the Democratic primary who speaks Spanish fluently. That is going to become important after Aug. 28 when whoever wins has to battle Salazar for votes in a district that is 73% Hispanic.
Ladra likes Matt Haggman. We worked together at the Miami Herald and he was a fine journalist. But he and his campaign are out of touch with the average voter or resident in my community. Ladra likes former State Rep. David Richardson. Despite his stupid trip to Cuba and the fact that he talks about being the first gay elected to the House like its his only achievement, I think he has good intentions. I love the fact that he took it upon himself to visit state prisons and evaluate their operations as a state legislator.
But neither of them speak Spanish very well. And when pressed to vote for a David Richardson or a Matt Anything against a Maria Elvira Salazar, I fear that a lot of the elderly, high performing voters in the district will go for the name with the Z in it. This is not racism. It’s clarity. Nobody is saying this is how it should be. Just that it is what it is.
And that Gonzalez has two Zs.
There are only a few hours left to change your voter’s registration, if you are an NPA like me and want to vote in the primary. You have to do it before midnight at this website here.
But this message is also or more for those of you already registered as a Democrat: Think about the impact of your August vote in November and don’t throw it away. Think about who would be the best match against the eventual GOP nominee before you cast your ballot. Think about who will best be able to represent the majority of the district, and speak to her constituency in their language.
Then vote for Kristen Rosen Gonzalez.

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Want to meet a candidate for office this year? You will have plenty of opportunities in the coming weeks before the Aug. 28 primary and practically simultaneous to the absentee ballots are about to rain on Miami-Dade voters. Get your calendars and your pencils out.
There are breakfasts with congressional hopefuls and meet and greets with incumbent state reps, potlucks with Democrat activists, town halls and candidate forums from Miami Gardens to Kendall.
But there may not be a single better opportunity to catch as many Democrats as possible in one  place than Tuesday’s “Political Palooza II” in Coral Gables, organized by RiseUp Florida. Confirmations are already in from:

State Rep. Robert Asencio, District 118 incumbent
Candidate Javier Estevez, State House, District 105
State Rep. Javier Fernandez, District 114 incumbent
Candidate Demetrius Grimes, Congressional District 26
Candidate Matt Haggman, Congressional District 27
Candidate Michael Hepburn, Congressional District 27
Candidate Dotie Joseph, State House, District 108
Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, Florida gubernatorial candidate
Candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Congressional District 26
Candidate Heath Rassner, State House, District 119
Former State Rep. David Richardson, Congressional District 27
Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez, Congressional District 27
Candidate James Linwood Schulman, State House, District 115
Donna Shalala, US House of Representatives, District 27, candidate
Candidate Jeffrey “Doc” Solomon, State House, District 115
State Sen. Annette Taddeo, District 40 incumbent
Candidate Maryin Vargas, County Commission, District 6

Wait. Where’s Mary Barzee Flores? Or any of the three Dems running in Miami Beach’s open House seat? The Facebook invite says there are “more to confirm.”
And there will be representatives from the campaigns of the other four Democrat gubernatorial candidates — who seem to have given up Miami-Dade to Levine — and Sen. Bill Nelson‘s camp as well.
The palooza event begins at at 7 p.m. at Coral Gables Congregational Church, 3010 DeSoto Boulevard, Coral Gables. Questions will be solicited from the audience and simultaneous Spanish interpretation will be provided.
Read related: Promised ‘blue wave’ ends up being a little splash in state House races
 
There’s a candidate forum on Thursday that is a lunch meeting of the Palmetto Bay Business Association. Even judicial candidates have been invited, but the Facebook event page doesn’t say who has confirmed.
Then, on Friday, there will be another group sighting of candidates in the north part of the county. Barzee Flores and the three Dems from Miami Beach — former Commissioners Michael Grieco and Deede Weithorn and newcomer nobody Kubs Lalchandani — have confirmed for that one. Hosted by The Democratic Women’s Club of Greater Miami-Dade and FL Democrats for 2018, the event is free with snacks and a cash bar (but a $10 donation will be appreciated). There will also be repeat appearances by Grimes and Mucarsel-Powell for the FL26 seat, Richardson and Shalala for FL27 and Schulman, Asencio and Rassner for House Districts 115, 118 and 119 respectively.
Other confirmed attendees so far include perennial Florida House candidates Ross Hancock, in District 115 this time, and Cindy Polo in District 103 and state Senate candidates Julian Santos and David Perez, who want to fight State Rep. Manny Diaz Jr. for the open seat in District 36, and Jason Pizzo in District 38.
This event is the only local meet and greet with cabinet candidates — Nikki Fried for Commissioner of Agriculture and Jeremy Ring for CFO — and it begins at 5 p.m. (ends at 8:30) at the Country Club of Miami Golf Course, 6801 NW 186th St.
Then on Monday, Aug. 6, there will be a judicial forum for candidates to the bench — and there are plenty — hosted by the Gwen Cherry Black Women Lawyers Association, the ACLU and the League of Women Voters. It begins at 6 p.m. at New Birth Baptist Church, 2300 NW 135th St.
There’s another judicial forum from 5:30 to 8:30 p.m. Aug. 13 at the law offices of Stearns Weaver Miller, which seems kinda odd. Like the fox inviting the hens to come over for a bite. This is hosted by a bunch of attorneys, actually: the Asian Pacific American Bar Association, the Caribbean Bar Association, the Haitian Lawyers Association, the Miami-Dade Chapter of the Florida Association of Women Lawyers, the South Asian Bar Association, and the Wilkie D Ferguson Bar Association. Admission is free (even for non lawyers) and light appetizers will be served at 150 West Flagler, Suite 2200. Haven’t you always wanted to see inside? Now’s your chance.

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Of course it’s a mega retail shopping complex. You didn’t think it would be just a stadium, did ya? For soccer? Where’s the fun (read: money) in that?
Well kept secret details of the long-awaited plan to turn Melreese Golf Course, the only golf course owned by the city of Miami and a historic gem, into a mega retail destination with shops, offices and restaurants, plus a 700-room hotel, have come out only in recent days, since the item is coming before the Miami Commission Thursday. And people are actually surprised that only a tiny, little bit of the plan includes a 25,000-seat soccer stadium?
This ain’t about a public venue for Kendall families to go to major league soccer games, something we all want. This is about a sweetheart deal public land grab. This is so David Beckham and his new Miami partners, which include Jorge Mas and the Mas family, turn it into a $1 billion, 73-acre complex with 600,000 square feet of retail and restaurants, 400,000 square feet of office space and at least 3,700 parking spaces that have a business plan all of their own.
Read related: Lawsuit to shed light on soccer stadium deal, land taken by eminent domain
It’s bigger than Brickell City Center and might have once been deemed the largest shopping complex ever imagined, except for that mega mall in Northwest Dade.
Except that this is smack in the middle of our gridlocked Miami-Dade, right next to Miami International Airport.
That’s only the first reason not to entertain this silly idea — at least for now. Until we have some of the stupid smart plan solutions in place, there is no reason to add this many trips to our already busy 37th Avenue.
But there are other reasons. How about that it’s a no-bid deal given to a bunch of insiders with connections to City Hall? How about the fact that the details about the shopping center on steroids was kept secret from everybody until the last minute? Even Beckham and co — who were just kidding with their plan to build the stadium in Overtown — know it’s a tough sell.
What else do we still not know?
Proponents will say that this is an economic win with a guaranteed paltry $3.5 million a year in rent to the city and $44 million or so a year in tax revenue. All they want is the chance to bring this to voters.
Read related: Carlos Gimenez’s own land for/near new soccer stadium
But that’s not entirely honest. All they really want is a chance to bring a slick, shiny multi-million dollar campaign to convince voters that this is in their best interest. They are going to use words like Freedom to tug at the heart strings and might even conjure Cuban exile royalty ghosts and what their wishes might have been if he was alive today. They are going to go all out, balls to the wall. If you think the FIU campaign to get the Youth Fair land lease referendum passed was something special, get ready for the campaign of your lives.
To them, “taking it to the voters” is basically a yes.
Because the opposition will not have the money that the developers making millions on this sweetheart real estate deal have, so there won’t be a slick campaign for the no vote. That will all be grassroots. And, probably, hopefully, viral. But still, it will be an uphill battle against the better funded side.
The city of Miami is selling itself and its citizens cheap if it allows this to even go to a public vote, knowing full well what that means. This is nothing more than a no-bid contract for a bunch of political insiders who are trying to take advantage of us. The way the development is unfolding, the land is worth way more than $4 or $5 million a year. Which is why some people have urged the commission to open the golf course up to bids — make it a competitive process and see what others might pay to do the same thing.
Read related: King Petty Carlos Gimenez gets goofy over soccer stadium
Beckham et al don’t want that. Because they can’t compete. That’s why they’re flying in all kinds of cheerleaders today and have to plan a tailgate party by soccer fans to try to sway the commission.
Don’t believe the hype. Take a step back and let’s look at this with time and more input from the community.
Ladra has heard that two of the five commissioners are already against the plan. That includes Willy Gort, whose district includes Melreese. Here’s hoping that third vote is off the fence today on the right side.
This is not the plan to take to voters if they ever want to convince us to do anything with public land for a stadium. Keyword: Stadium.

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If you had a political forum, and the Republican front runners weren’t there, did it still happen?
We shall see on Monday evening when the Kendall Federation of Homeowners welcomes every Democrat candidate and five of the Republican hopefuls to the District 27 seat vacated by the retirement of U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
According to the email blast and KFHA President Michael Rosenberg, four Republicans — including the top three potential vote-getters — are not going to make it to the 6:30 p.m. powwow at the Kendall Village “Civic” Center, in the middle of the shopping plaza, at 8625 SW 124 Ave.
Maria Elvira Salazar, the Spanish-language TV news magazine star who everyone thinks has the lead now that Bruno Barreiro‘s wife lost her county commission race, had been out of town until Saturday, Rosenberg said, but was supposed to confirm after that and has not. Barreiro, Angie Chirino and Maria Piero have not responded.
“Bruno, I’ve invited eight times. Not even a response,” Rosenberg said, adding that he also texted Zoraida Barreiro, who used to respond quite quickly when she was running for office, and got nada back from her either.
“They want our vote, they just don’t want to talk to us,” he said.
Wanting to talk are former Doral Councilwoman Bettina Rodriguez-Aguilera, right, and four people you probably never heard of: Elizabeth Adadi, Stephen Marks, Michael Ohevzian and Gina Sosa. They have all confirmed attendance at the forum. For these people, a day without Maria Elvira, Barreiro and Angie Chirino is a good day.
On the other hand, every Democrat confirmed: Kristen Rosen Gonzalez, Matt Haggman, Michael Hepburn, David Richardson and Donna Shalala all said they would be there.
Maybe that’s all that matters, since the Democrat winner in August has the advantage in November in what many are saying is one of the most flippable seats in the country. Maybe Bruno has the right idea in not giving it 110%.
“This will be a civil meeting to learn about these candidates. educate the community about these candidates,” Rosenberg said. “We are going to tell the candidates not to go off road, to focus on the questions and answer it so voters can learn about them. Otherwise it is a wasted meeting.”
Republican candidates will go first start at 7 p.m.  The Democrats start at 8:15. They will have two minutes to introduce themselves and then a minute to answer six questions. 
“That means you need to be right on point, clear, and not waste a second from the context of the question,” Rosenberg wrote to the candidates.
Each candidate will also get two one-minute challenges to use if another candidate specifically names them or misrepresents their position. So if it happens a third time, Ladra supposes they just have to live with it.
Or maybe address it in the end, where there will be a two minute summary or closing statement.
The KFHA also plans forums in the following weeks for candidates to the Miami-Dade County Commission (July 23) and to the Florida House (July 25). Hopefully, all the viable candidates will be there for that.

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Qualifying came and went quietly last month and we ended up with quite a few challenges in the Florida House and some interesting contests in four of the five open seats.

State Rep. Jose Oliva is the only Republican incumbent in South Florida without a challenger. Reps. Kionne McGhee, Barbara Watson, Richard Stark, Sharon Pritchett, Shevron Dion Jones, Joe Geller and Evan Jenne were also automatically re-elected without opposition, but they are Democrats in areas that are already dark blue.
There are a couple of head-to-heads. Rep. Holly Raschein (R-Key Largo) will face Steve Friedman and Rep. Robert Asencio (D-West Kendall) has a rematch, of sorts, with Anthony Rodriguez, who lost the Republican primary two years ago to former State Rep. David Rivera (who never qualified  for State House 119 this year as he had threatened to, either). In another rematch in House 112, Rep. Nicholas Duran (D-Shenandoah) will face Republican Rosy Palomino again.  And, next door, newly elected Rep. Javier Fernandez (D-Coral Gables) will face a guy with a similar name, Republican Javier Enriquez. Someone named Ahmed Rizwan is challenging Rep. Bryan Avila (R-Hialeah), but nobody is watching that.
Read related: Unforgivable: Jose Oliva goes unchallenged in blue wave year
And all those contests are in November, anyway, more than four months away.
In August, we have some big, fat primary ballots due to termed out reps that leave open seat opportunities that nobody wants to pass up.
In 115, where Ladra lives, we have two Democrats and four Republicans vying for former State Rep. Michael Bileca‘s seat. Jeffrey Solomon (photographed, left) will probably and should win against someone named James Schulman. This is Doc Solomon’s third or fourth run at the seat — he’s not afraid of running against an incumbent — so he is like the incumbent this time and everybody knows his name. Among the Republicans, it will either be GOP favorite Vance Aloupis or Jose Fernandez, the only two who have dropped any mail so far. Carlos Gobel and Rhonda Rebman Lopez, who dropped the Rebman from her name to sound more Hispanic and has loaned herself almost $100,000 (more on that later), are still silent but could make moves in the next couple of weeks. This seat is totally flipable. One of the five most vulnerable House seats in Miami-Dade.
Not so much so in 119, where Jeanette Nuñez exits right, and we have another four Republicans, but only one Democrat and one NPA. So, in August, we will see the battle between Juan Fernandez-Barquin, Enrique Lopez, Analeen “Annie” Martinez — daughter of Miami-Dade Commissioner Joe Martinez, (photographed with her, right) which could be why she has quite a bit of a fundraising lead (more on that later) — and Bibiana “Bibi” Potestad. The winner there, like Ladra just said, will likely take it in November because Democrat Heath Rassner seems like he doesn’t know what he’s doing, having first filed in HD 5 in the panhandle and having lost already once in the 116 race to former State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz. NPA Daniel Sotelo, however, has raised $24,455 so far and could be a factor — especially if Martinez wins and Sotelo makes the whole general campaign about dynasties. We know that works.
Read related: Republicans start lining up for 2018 state primaries, challenges
Democrats could gain one in District 103, which covers Miami Lakes and Hialeah Gardens and is vacated by Manny Diaz, Jr., a charter school no-show employee and quarry mining industry sellout who thinks he can win a senate race now (more on that later). Diaz and Oliva handpicked Miami Lakes Councilman and Oliva Cigars employee Frank Mingo to replace him. But there’s a primary with Cindy Polo, a stay at home mom inspired to run after the school shooting at Parkland against Richard Tapia, who dropped out of the Miami-Dade School Board race against the mayor’s sister-in-law after he met with CJ Gimenez, who discouraged him. Ladra can’t help but wonder if someone is encouraging him now. This is only flipable if Polo wins and yes it’s flipable (more on this race later).
The blue team could have scored again in Ambassador Carlos Trujillo‘s former district in Doral — but instead they fumbled another one. Doral Councilwoman Ana Maria Rodriguez (photographed left) is running as the sole Republican after King Nine Lives Rivera himself decided not to throw his hat in the ring this year — and it’s the first time since when that David is not on the ballot? Rodriguez, who has remained unscathed during the mud bath in Doral, is a worthy opponent even in one of the most flipable seats. Especially since the primary pits Ross Hancock, who has run in so many districts already that he hasn’t been able to build a base, against Javier Estevez, who has raised less than $1,700 since September of last year.  Dems in Doral have voted for Ana Maria before. They won’t mind doing so again. This seat likely stays red. And it could have gone blue with the right candidate. The Miami-Dade Democratic Party really blew it. Again.
On the flip side of that, House District 113 — which became open when David Richardson decided he had enough of butting heads in Tallahassee and he would try to ride his first gay elected thing to Washington — has three Democrats and only one Republican who is wasting his time, because whoever wins this race in August is the next state rep. That means it’s either one of two former Miami Beach Commissioners Deede Weithorn and Michael Grieco the comeback kid, who got off probation for campaign law violations in his 2017 mayoral bid just in time to run, or “Kubs” Lalchandani, an attorney for plastic surgery centers where botched procedures have led to patient deaths whose real name is Kabir Arjan. Like Ladra said, whoever wins that primary is going to win in November say the demographics, so Republican Jonathan Parker is irrelevant. This seat will stay blue forever.
Read related: New Mayor Dan Gelber endroses Deede Weithorn for State House
Interestingly enough, there are also a couple of incumbents facing challenges from their own party:
Newly-elected State Rep. Daniel Anthony Perez (R-Westchester) — who beat Jose Mallea and some Republican lady from Broward for the seat in a special election last summer, after Jose Felix Diaz resigned to run for senate (and lost) — will face tax attorney Frank Polo, a balsero from the 1994 crisis who spent 10 months at the refugee camps for Cuban rafters at Guantanamo. That’s a GOP leaning district so whoever wins that will likely easily beat Democrat James Alexander Harden. Another lost opportunity for the blue team, who should have had a player here.
On the blue side, State Rep. Roy Hardemon faces two Democrat challengers in the primary — Joseph Beauvil and Dotie Joseph. There’s an LPF in that race also but this is a solid Democrat district. Republicans need not apply, and they didn’t.
And in 109, we have two Democrats longtime and well-known Democrats battling it out: Former State Rep. James Bush III hasn’t been able to win even a seat on the United Teachers of Dade board, so what makes him think he can beat Cedric McMinn, a political climber who worked as district assistant to State Rep. Cynthia Stafford in this very district before he became chief of staff to Miami-Dade School Board Member Dr. Dorothy Bendross-Mindingall. This election is going to be run and decided by educators (and educational interests?) so it may be worth watching.
But that was a blue seat that will stay blue. At the end of the day, the Democrats really didn’t come through with that promised blue wave — at least not in the Florida House. They could have flipped four or five seats (if you count Raschein) and will be lucky if they get even two. Let’s call it what it is: a blue trickle.

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