Among the House races in South Florida this November, one of the most important, despite the little media attention, is the race to replace State Rep. Manny Diaz, Jr. in House District 103.
Why is it important? Because Diaz, the GOP mafia’s pick to run for the Senate seat vacated by Rene Garcia, is one of would be State Rep. Jose Oliva‘s yes men and speaker vote. That seat needs to stay firmly an Oliva vote if he is to have the mighty power next session. How loyal does that person have to be? So much so that Oliva handpicked his very own employee, Miami Lakes Councilman Frank Mingo, an Oliva Cigars supply chain manager, to run for the seat.
He is literally a lackey.
Democrat Cindy Polo, a mom on a mission, could have a real chance against Mingo in the year of the woman on a supposed blue wave. So of course they threw a challenger against her in the primary. This way they can attack her and force her to burn her money in an August contest.
Enter Richard Tapia, the possible plantidate who came out of nowhere. Well, actually, he came out of Kendall, allegedly moving into a Hialeah apartment in the district one day before qualifying on June 20.  Hmmmm. It certainly could look like he moved in just for the race. Or maybe “moved in” is better.
At least he didn’t just become a Democrat. He did that two years ago.
Tapia was a Republican two years ago when he announced a run for a Miami-Dade School Board seat in the Little Havana district. Actually, he’s bounced back and forth a few times but he’s been a Republican more than he’s been a Democrat by at least 12 years.
He seems to have a hard time making up his mind. Tapia was even registered as everything for some time in 2016. He last switched from Republican to Democrat in December of 2016, four months after he dropped out of the school board race. But he went from Democrat to Republican in February that same year and from No Party Affiliation to Democrat in January, only 12 days before that. Talk about indecision. Tapia had switched to NPA from Republican in 2014. But he had been Republican since 2002, when he switched from Democrat in August of that year.
Whew. Yeah, I’m dizzy, too.
Tapia’s bio on Bloomberg says he has provided political strategies to the insurance industry as well as to “candidates seeking public office, achieving the elections of various state representatives, a U.S. Congressman, and a U.S. Senator.” Ladra wonders who those are. Bet they’re Republican. Someone should ask him, because he wouldn’t talk to me. And is that the kind of public servant Miami Lakes wants?
He was also Miami-Dade Commissioner Esteban Bovo‘s appointment to the planning advisory board. Bovo, a died-in-the-wool Republican, is pretty tight with Oliva and would not likely appoint someone who would go against Oliva’s handpicked Diaz successor.
What seems far more likely is that Tapia is a plant, put there solely to smear Cindy and make her spend her money so she is at a disadvantage when it comes to the general. And if Tapia actually wins the primary, which is unlikely but possible, he will not try very hard to win the general. In fact, he may drop out. It wouldn’t be his first time.
This is the same guy who withdrew from the School Board race in 2016 after getting nudged by lobbyist and mayoral son CJ Gimenez, who met with him in a restaurant to talk him out of it. That’s because CJ’s aunt and the mayor’s sister in law, Maria Teresa Rojas, was running for the same seat. How much you wanna bet that Tapia was talked into this race?
Read related: Beware of Carlos Gimenez Jr. at Gables school board forum
Tapia wouldn’t talk about it. Reached over the weekend, he referred all questions to his campaign manager, Absentee Ballot Queen Sasha Tirador, who is known to work principally for Republican candidates. In fact, Ladra cannot remember a single Democrat candidate Sasha has worked with.
Of course, Tirador could just be into it to go against her old partner, David Custin, who works for Mingo and all of Oliva’s flying monkeys. It’s not like she hasn’t been driven by a grudge before.
It didn’t help Tapia’s case that he hung up on Ladra and answered a texted question about his P&Z appointment with “have a great day.” Tapia doesn’t even have to drop out if he wins the primary. He could throw it. He could just suspend his campaign or do something really stupid on purpose to hand Mingo the election. Or he could let it be known that he doesn’t really live in Hialeah.
Meanwhile, Polo seems like the real deal, another mom who got woke by the Parkland school shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas Senior High in February. She filed her first paperwork for the seat in March.
“I’m not running because it was part of a career plan,” she told Ladra. “It was a necessity.”
Polo, who used to do communications for the MDX Authority, helped found the Northwest Dade Democratic Club almost two years ago and hoped to find someone else to step up. After Parkland, she saw Mingo’s name all by itself and decided that the someone was staring at her in the mirror. She was encourage by many, including former Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, who gave $500 to her campaign in May, according to state campaign finance reports.
Tapia, she said, called her and asked her to move her race to District 105. Polo said nana nina.
“He might not know what Hialeah girls are made of.”
Polo — who is involved in the area residents’ anti-blasting movement — wants to represent a community she says has been ignored for too long. “No one’s ever knocked on our doors, no one’s ever talked to us. I’ve lived here all my life so I know,” she said. “I want to give a voice to the area.”
See? Not a plant.
 

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Want to meet a candidate for office this year? You will have plenty of opportunities in the coming weeks before the Aug. 28 primary and practically simultaneous to the absentee ballots are about to rain on Miami-Dade voters. Get your calendars and your pencils out.
There are breakfasts with congressional hopefuls and meet and greets with incumbent state reps, potlucks with Democrat activists, town halls and candidate forums from Miami Gardens to Kendall.
But there may not be a single better opportunity to catch as many Democrats as possible in one  place than Tuesday’s “Political Palooza II” in Coral Gables, organized by RiseUp Florida. Confirmations are already in from:

State Rep. Robert Asencio, District 118 incumbent
Candidate Javier Estevez, State House, District 105
State Rep. Javier Fernandez, District 114 incumbent
Candidate Demetrius Grimes, Congressional District 26
Candidate Matt Haggman, Congressional District 27
Candidate Michael Hepburn, Congressional District 27
Candidate Dotie Joseph, State House, District 108
Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, Florida gubernatorial candidate
Candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Congressional District 26
Candidate Heath Rassner, State House, District 119
Former State Rep. David Richardson, Congressional District 27
Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez, Congressional District 27
Candidate James Linwood Schulman, State House, District 115
Donna Shalala, US House of Representatives, District 27, candidate
Candidate Jeffrey “Doc” Solomon, State House, District 115
State Sen. Annette Taddeo, District 40 incumbent
Candidate Maryin Vargas, County Commission, District 6

Wait. Where’s Mary Barzee Flores? Or any of the three Dems running in Miami Beach’s open House seat? The Facebook invite says there are “more to confirm.”
And there will be representatives from the campaigns of the other four Democrat gubernatorial candidates — who seem to have given up Miami-Dade to Levine — and Sen. Bill Nelson‘s camp as well.
The palooza event begins at at 7 p.m. at Coral Gables Congregational Church, 3010 DeSoto Boulevard, Coral Gables. Questions will be solicited from the audience and simultaneous Spanish interpretation will be provided.
Read related: Promised ‘blue wave’ ends up being a little splash in state House races
 
There’s a candidate forum on Thursday that is a lunch meeting of the Palmetto Bay Business Association. Even judicial candidates have been invited, but the Facebook event page doesn’t say who has confirmed.
Then, on Friday, there will be another group sighting of candidates in the north part of the county. Barzee Flores and the three Dems from Miami Beach — former Commissioners Michael Grieco and Deede Weithorn and newcomer nobody Kubs Lalchandani — have confirmed for that one. Hosted by The Democratic Women’s Club of Greater Miami-Dade and FL Democrats for 2018, the event is free with snacks and a cash bar (but a $10 donation will be appreciated). There will also be repeat appearances by Grimes and Mucarsel-Powell for the FL26 seat, Richardson and Shalala for FL27 and Schulman, Asencio and Rassner for House Districts 115, 118 and 119 respectively.
Other confirmed attendees so far include perennial Florida House candidates Ross Hancock, in District 115 this time, and Cindy Polo in District 103 and state Senate candidates Julian Santos and David Perez, who want to fight State Rep. Manny Diaz Jr. for the open seat in District 36, and Jason Pizzo in District 38.
This event is the only local meet and greet with cabinet candidates — Nikki Fried for Commissioner of Agriculture and Jeremy Ring for CFO — and it begins at 5 p.m. (ends at 8:30) at the Country Club of Miami Golf Course, 6801 NW 186th St.
Then on Monday, Aug. 6, there will be a judicial forum for candidates to the bench — and there are plenty — hosted by the Gwen Cherry Black Women Lawyers Association, the ACLU and the League of Women Voters. It begins at 6 p.m. at New Birth Baptist Church, 2300 NW 135th St.
There’s another judicial forum from 5:30 to 8:30 p.m. Aug. 13 at the law offices of Stearns Weaver Miller, which seems kinda odd. Like the fox inviting the hens to come over for a bite. This is hosted by a bunch of attorneys, actually: the Asian Pacific American Bar Association, the Caribbean Bar Association, the Haitian Lawyers Association, the Miami-Dade Chapter of the Florida Association of Women Lawyers, the South Asian Bar Association, and the Wilkie D Ferguson Bar Association. Admission is free (even for non lawyers) and light appetizers will be served at 150 West Flagler, Suite 2200. Haven’t you always wanted to see inside? Now’s your chance.

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A number of Florida House seats in the 305 will be vacated by term-limited legislators next year — and already there are a bunch of wannabes getting in line to replace ’em.

David Rivera jumped into the race for District 105 last week, which would pit him against Doral Councilwoman Ana Maria Rodriguez, who filed her campaign paperwork in December for the seat vacated by State Rep. Carlos Trujillo.

But that’s not the only GOP primary already shaping up for 2018. There are three others.

Read related story: If at first you don’t succeed… David Rivera tries again

In District 119, where State Rep. Jeanette Nunez serves now, Republicans Enrique Lopez and Andrew Vargas have already opened up campaign accounts. Lopez has loaned himself $50,000 and raised another $33,240 in February alone. Vargas just filed last month so he has nothing to report. Ladra hears that Commissioner Joe Martinez‘s daughter may also consider a run there.

In District 116, where Rep. Jose Felix Diaz is getting a time-out, Republicans Jose Mallea and Daniel Anthony Perez have also made their intentions clear. Neither has raised any money yet.

Say buh-bye: In this picture, only Rep. Jose Oliva (top, left) is not termed out.

There are three Republicans already raising money for a campaign in District 115, where Rep. Michael Bileca will be termed out: Vance Aloupis, Carlos Gobel and Carmen Sotomayor. Only Sotomayor has reported raising any money, and its $100 at that, having filed in January. Both Alupis and Gobel filed last month and have not had to file any campaign reports yet.

Each of these are already Republican seats and it’s curious that no Democrats have yet shown their faces, especially in 105 and 115, both of which are seats where Obama did well.

Instead, we have Republicans dominating the early game, with two GOP challengers filing against two of the three newly-minted, freshman Democrats. Jose Pazos, who abandoned his campaign last year due to his father’s health, is going against Rep. Daisy Baez in 114 and Rosy Palomino, who lost last year against Nicholas Duran in 112 (53-47%), wants a rematch.

You just know someone is going to file against the other freshman Dem, State Rep. Robert Asencio in 118. Give it another month or two.